Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[winterfreak]

I know it's only a day 15 GFS map and will be gone the next run but what a storm it makes down here.

That thing is a monster. Hopefully we can cash in with something that big.

[OKwx2k4]

@Tom, Yeah it does fit. I was curious about that. That would be a historic snowstorm for me at even half the magnitude of the November or December storms that preceeded it IF it's cold enough then.

 

Winterfreak, 'monster' is an adequate word. Woof woof. :-)

[Tom]

Taking what we have learned how the models are handling the 9-10th system...Euro Day 8-10 looks very interesting.  Fits the pattern for another cutter special.  That is a large, mean looking trough in the extended.

[OKwx2k4]

The 11-15 euro is going to look pretty interesting this evening also.

[winterfreak]

The 18z GFS sure looks interesting in the long range.

[Tom]

The 18z GFS sure looks interesting in the long range.

Indeed, 12z Euro Para already starting to sniff that storm out.  Had a good idea models would start seeing it soon enough.

[winterfreak]

Well tonight's run is quite different. Would be an impressive rainstorm if it happened that way towards the end of the run.

[OKwx2k4]

Well tonight's run is quite different. Would be an impressive rainstorm if it happened that way towards the end of the run.

Stupid rain. :-(

[Maxim]

Stupid rain. :-(

You live in Oklahoma... what do you expect?

[OKwx2k4]

Euro in the long range has the same snowstorm as the GFS did yesterday.

[winterfreak]

Kind of concerning when the models show both storms in the late night range going way south and east. Last two storms have done the same exact thing. I guess we'll find out at the end of the month.

[winterfreak]

EURO is suppression central through the run.

[Money]

No it's not

[Tom]

00z GFS lining up well with the LRC/30-day cycle for next week.  After a Clipper near the Lakes, the pattern evolves as another system hits the west coast and ejects out into the Plains.  Regarding the LRC, on Nov 26th/27th a frontal boundary set up from the Plains/Lakes just after Thanksgiving when the EPO tanked.  This was an interesting system that had copious moisture to work with but minimal cold air except for KS/NE.  This go around, we will have ample blocking in place.  Should be another good storm on the 15th/16th to track and have more widespread precipitation instead of a smaller compact storm.

 

Interestingly enough, the 30-day cycle overlaps the LRC's storm when a 996mb SLP developed in SE CO on Dec 15th and tracked ENE towards MSP.  Does anyone else find it peculiar that the LRC and 30-day cycle overlap each other???  I don't that it is a coincidence, now do ya???  It's amazing to figure out how the weather works and yet another piece to the puzzle of the mysteries of how inter-connected everything is on this planet/universe.

[Geos]

The next big ticket item.

 

[OKwx2k4]

The next big ticket item.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ncus_30.png

That one's going to be fun!

[Snowlover76]

I wonder if we get a half decent event here this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

00z GFS lining up well with the LRC/30-day cycle for next week. After a Clipper near the Lakes, the pattern evolves as another system hits the west coast and ejects out into the Plains. Regarding the LRC, on Nov 26th/27th a frontal boundary set up from the Plains/Lakes just after Thanksgiving when the EPO tanked. This was an interesting system that had copious moisture to work with but minimal cold air except for KS/NE. This go around, we will have ample blocking in place. Should be another good storm on the 15th/16th to track and have more widespread precipitation instead of a smaller compact storm.

 

Interestingly enough, the 30-day cycle overlaps the LRC's storm when a 996mb SLP developed in SE CO on Dec 15th and tracked ENE towards MSP. Does anyone else find it peculiar that the LRC and 30-day cycle overlap each other??? I don't that is a coincidence, now do ya??? It's amazing to figure out how the weather works and yet another piece to the puzzle of the mysteries of how inter-connected everything is on this planet/universe.

 

Going even farther,

The cycles are pretty neat to follow. I enjoy trying to use them to figure out what makes sense at longer ranges. It's made the last boring month and a half for me a little more bearable.

[winterfreak]

Let's try this again. Still a week to go.

[OKwx2k4]

Let's try this again. Still a week to go.

Yeah. A lot can change in a week.

[Tom]

Models are now showing a nice 500mb pattern for next Fri/Sat system.  LRC going to score another coupe...how many times have we seen the models correct towards the general pattern???  I believe this should "share the wealth" over this sub forum.

[Tom]

12z GGEM carving out a monster trough by next weekend nearby...would be a monster storm from the southern Plains/Midwest/OV.  The correction would be for a better phase and the ensembles are seeing that.  This would suggest a bowling ball type of storm from the Rockies to the East.

[Maxim]

The next big ticket item.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ncus_30.png

12z GFS doesn't really have much of a storm now. I mean, it does, but it completely falls apart as it moves east.

[Maxim]

That one's going to be fun!

lol...

[Iowawx]

18Z GFS not showing much of a storm for the 15th-16th. Who knows whats going to happen with that one. Probably a weak storm based on how it looks. Maybe Tom can provide more details about this one. 

[Geos]

The cold just squashes it and doesn't give it a chance. Still a week away yet.

 

 

GEM is trying still.

 

 

It transfers energy further southeast.

 

[Tom]

12z Euro showing signs of a bowling ball type storm that starts to develop over the central/southern Plains and heads almost due east across the southern Midwest towards the EC.  Lays down snow from KC/STL/IND/CVG.  Not huge, but getting there.

[Niko]

12z Euro showing signs of a bowling ball type storm that starts to develop over the central/southern Plains and heads almost due east across the southern Midwest towards the EC.  Lays down snow from KC/STL/IND/CVG.  Not huge, but getting there.

I think one of the computer models (GFS) buries the east coast from feet of snow (Blizzard). Have to see about that.

[winterfreak]

East coast has been getting buried on GFS for a while now.

[Tom]

Saw this tweet from a met who has a PHD in Tropical meteorology:

 

 

 

Stat model based off the intensity & location of "low frequency" tropical forcing via upper troposphere. More -NAO?

 

This is a forecast from 1/21 - 2/20...

 

 

[Tom]

The pattern above, would be similar to what happened in December in the N PAC waters creating a -PNA pattern.  The BIG difference would be a -NAO that would influence the pattern quite a bit.  Just wanted to post this out of curiosity if it actually does happen.

[Iowawx]

Man, that storm on the 15th-16th is gone. What happened? Tom said it fits the LRC cycle?

[Tom]

Man, that storm on the 15th-16th is gone. What happened? Tom said it fits the LRC cycle?

It's the GFS, on top that, at 500mb it is there, but just isn't phased...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016011000/gfs_z500_vort_us_24.png

[winterfreak]

Another way south east coaster on the GFS.

[Money]

Looks like euro is trying to spin up a storm for next weekend

[Tom]

LRC/30-day cycle is going to score another coupe IMO for system next Fri/Sat.  The Euro keeps getting stronger each run and develops the system earlier as the energy skirts the Rockies.  00z Euro has a 997 SLP in SE CO/TX Panhandle region...right where the Dec 15th/16th storm formed.  It tracks it down through OKC/S IL/S IN/S OH and produces a large swath of accumulating snows in the heartland/Midwest/Lower Lakes.

 

Still a long ways out, but this one has real potential to "share the wealth" for members from KS/MO/IL/S WI/S MI/OH. Strong HP just to the north in S Canada supplies arctic air and these are the type of systems that can produce a long duration event and a long duration fetch off Lake Michigan for WI/IL.  Getting interesting.

[Tom]

With arctic air invading the pattern as hemispheric blocking has taken over, the "wet" part of the LRC is def showing up now on the GFS and the EPS.  00z EPS indicating a very snowy pattern from the Rockies and points East.  They keep getting snowier each run.  The pattern setting up now is going to provide chances for wintry weather to nearly everyone in this sub-form going forward.  Not a dull or boring pattern to say the least.

 

BTW, models were showing the AO/NAO try to relax over the last 24-48 hours, but have now backed off that idea and keep the blocking going through the extended.  Winter is finally here!

[Tom]

Both 10mb/30mb warming beginning to make a second attempt to poke up and weaken the PV...AER's forecast is right on schedule...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

[Tom]

Another look at the 12z Euro snowfall map for next Fri/Sat...

 

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-10-at-7.09.58-AM-640x364.png

[Money]

Big changes on 12z gfs looks like it def got closer to phasing