jaster220 Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS really upped snowfall accumulations for Monday and early Tuesday.If trends hold another 24 hours, I'll start a thread. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160120/18Z/f168/acckucherasnowmw.png Was the snow always that far north? Puts mby on the SE fringe of decent stuff. What a kick that'll be if after days and days of single digits it gets too warm when this comes through. Good Luck over there though - looks like your magnet's dialed in again. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Was the snow always that far north? Puts mby on the SE fringe of decent stuff. What a kick that'll be if after days and days of single digits it gets too warm when this comes through. Good Luck over there though - looks like your magnet's dialed in again. It was a disorganized storm until now. We need to lose that storm in southern Canada or have it scoot by quicker. It would allow the high in back of it to slide southward quicker. Here was the real good run yesterday. The low dives into NE instead of towards Lake Superior. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 Would like to know what the EURO does with the Day 11 storm. Does not look organized from this map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2016 Report Share Posted January 20, 2016 that nearly straight 0c line. dont see that too often Would like to know what the EURO does with the Day 11 storm. Does not look organized from this map. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016012012/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ejecting fast is better. Slower means it digs more.I know. Good for you. Bad for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know. Good for you. Bad for me. Or we need a slow ejection far enough south to give you some snow too. Once it gets past the Mississippi River then it can swing further north. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Or we need a slow ejection far enough south to give you some snow too. Once it gets past the Mississippi River then it can swing further north.Then that leaves me out Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Low of the 28th diving more SE ward. System after will end up further east I'm guessing.System on Monday not quite as organized this run. Maybe a 2-4" swath for a few. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Different solution coming out on that SW system...Going to be weaker I think... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Weird...SW is slower to eject out because it waits for the northern stream piece to go by. Then it comes out and does not hook. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks pretty decent. Still a very weird evolution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well it does hook, but not like before. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 That system on the first of February bears watching. Not only for the snow, but that's also caucus night here in Iowa. That could sway turnout if it holds true. On a separate note can you imagine if we had the storm that Virginia and Maryland are going to get. This board would be lit up...but go to the east coast page and all is quiet. What gives? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Strange how the GFSLR has had this storm every single run. Track varies widely but that is to be expected this far out. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,Would that be March of '93, Jan '96, Dec 09 or Feb 2010? If you don't think Maryland and Virginia are going to get walloped, I want what you're smoking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Euro showing the PV displaced off the pole by Day 10... Here is the current situation...then Day 10...that storm system which opens February is going to be a fun storm to track which will likely ignite an active pattern of larger scale storms IMO. Euro showing an active NW Flow pattern next week after the weak Mon/Tue system. Showing two systems coming down out of CA mid/late next week before the BIG one starts brewing sometime on or after the Day 10 period. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks touchy on models through at least day ten. Hope that storm in Feb produces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks touchy on models through at least day ten. Hope that storm in Feb produces.Me too. Running out of chances here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS takes 993 mb low at the beginning of February from roughly KC to STL to DTW. Still no stock in this system. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks touchy on models through at least day ten. Hope that storm in Feb produces.Not even the biggest midwest snow weenie could attempt to spin the pattern the last 2 weeks and the upcoming 10 days into anything exciting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not even the biggest midwest snow weenie could attempt to spin the pattern the last 2 weeks and the upcoming 10 days into anything excitingThings will get better if the PNA ridge relaxes...... i hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEFS/EPS all supporting a neutral PNA to right at month's end. Should be a better overall pattern to spin up storms in our sub-forum as Feb opens up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 could see a few decent bowling balls rocket across the country at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed, They have the ocean and Gulf Stream right there, I wouldn't doubt widespread 2' amounts. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 My God....storm parade on GFS to open Feb. Too bad its long term models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z GFS has some real nice storms on it. ---- Can see the SSW event showing up on the GEFS. Actually the PV is well displaced by day 5. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 My God....storm parade on GFS to open Feb. Too bad its long term models.wouldn't put much stock in long term models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 At least me might have a refresher snow on Monday..better than zippo at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 At least me might have a refresher snow on Monday..better than zippo at this point.GFS/GGEM show more rain than snow around here...I think the this system will cut just NW of Chicago or right over. Going to be close for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS/GGEM show more rain than snow around here...I think the this system will cut just NW of Chicago or right over. Going to be close for us. All depends on how big of a trough is left in the wake of the East Coast bomb. If it swings up a bit, then a bigger trough will be carved out and more than likely the Tuesday system will stay south of I-80. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Down sloping winds are going to torch the Plains later next week. Looks like a snow pack killer on the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z Euro carving out a monster trough Day 10 in the west/southwest part of the U.S. Going to be an interesting storm to track as the PNA/AO/EPO all head towards neutral during this period. Those are prime teleconnection signals for a bowling ball type of storm. This storm fits the Dec 12th/13th storm in the LRC cycle #2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks pretty torchy around here next week. Hope it diminishes as the pattern gets active again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 wouldn't put much stock in long term modelsNo crap...maybe thats why I said "too bad its long term models" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Interestingly enough, there is a lot of agreement among the GEFS/EPS members for the Day 10-12 system. Looks like both models are seeing a storm or two ejecting out somewhere near KS/NE and track ENE towards the Lakes somewhere. A lot of moisture being painted between both models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS has p-type issues on 10-12 storm now. Nino just has to work its way into every strong storm doesnt it. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted January 21, 2016 Report Share Posted January 21, 2016 Long Range modals give us Cold rain temp 33-36 range followed by Cold air as the P-type departs till hr 384 when temps will be in mid to upper teens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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