Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies run tonight look like a great pattern once we get towards Feb 1st.  Euro control has 2 big storms the opening week of February in the Plains/Lakes.  Would fit the LRC pattern to have back to back large storm systems around Feb 1st/2nd and then the 5th/6th.

 

Teleconnections on this run on avg support a neutral PNA/AO/EPO thru the 20th of Feb (end of run).  It basically would be a pattern that digs storms into the west/southwest and have enough 500mb blocking to support cold air for storm systems unlike we had in December when this pattern existed.  The month of Feb will probably end up being the more "wintry" month this season esp with everything that is going on in the atmosphere, including the PV and the central Pacific.

[Tom]

Week 1-2 Euro Ens Mean...does that resemble a Plains/Lakes cutter track???

[Tom]

I sense a GHD Blitz 3.0 is brewing...seems to be natures pattern over the last 5 years...maybe the Ground Hog knows something that we don't!  

 

FYI, I'm not saying Chicago is the magnet for this one.  Kinda nervous this one may cut NW of here.

[Geos]

Snow is back on for Monday-Tuesday. Going to wait until all the 0z runs come in to start a thread.

 

 

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I sense a GHD Blitz 3.0 is brewing...seems to be natures pattern over the last 5 years...maybe the Ground Hog knows something that we don't!  

 

FYI, I'm not saying Chicago is the magnet for this one.  Kinda nervous this one may cut NW of here.

 

I've mentioned this before, but the movie Groundhog Day was filmed in Woodstock, IL and given its theme, it's only quite fitting that this region would get several big GHD snowstorms at some point.

[Tom]

I've mentioned this before, but the movie Groundhog Day was filmed in Woodstock, IL and given its theme, it's only quite fitting that this region would get several big GHD snowstorms at some point.

Earlier this Autumn, I met a guy who rents various high-end animals across the local area and his father raised the "original" Ground Hog which was featured in the film.  Then he explained to me how it was filmed in Woodstock, IL (I had no clue).  Go figure Chicago has been in the hot spot the last few years.  Will it be a lucky 3rd???  Going to be close this time.  I think your area is more likely than down here.

[Niko]

Snow is back on for Monday-Tuesday. Going to wait until all the 0z runs come in to start a thread.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012118/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png

[OKwx2k4]

Week 1-2 Euro Ens Mean...does that resemble a Plains/Lakes cutter track???

December part 2. Have fun guys. My winter has 0 hope.

[Tom]

December part 2. Have fun guys. My winter has 0 hope.

You may get a chance in the later half of February but it doesn't look like anything of significance during the first part of Feb.  By then, you'll be heading into Spring mode and severe weather season.  The pattern hasn't really been a favorable one this year down by you.

[OKwx2k4]

You may get a chance in the later half of February but it doesn't look like anything of significance during the first part of Feb. By then, you'll be heading into Spring mode and severe weather season. The pattern hasn't really been a favorable one this year down by you.

If we make it to spring with no snow it will be only the 4th time since 1949 with no measurable snow for a winter. 2 of those were fairly recent 2006-07 and 1999-2000. The other year I can't remember.

[winterfreak]

You may get a chance in the later half of February but it doesn't look like anything of significance during the first part of Feb. By then, you'll be heading into Spring mode and severe weather season. The pattern hasn't really been a favorable one this year down by you.

Really hope you're wrong about this.

[winterfreak]

You may get a chance in the later half of February but it doesn't look like anything of significance during the first part of Feb. By then, you'll be heading into Spring mode and severe weather season. The pattern hasn't really been a favorable one this year down by you.

Really hope you're wrong about this for weenie reasons.

[OKwx2k4]

Really hope you're wrong about this for weenie reasons.

I don't have any illusions of hope left. :-(

[Money]

GFS showing 4 feet of snow for DC/BAL

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f066/acckucherasnowconus.png

[james1976]

December part 2. Have fun guys. My winter has 0 hope.

If you love Winter as much as you always talk about....then move north and join the party! Lol

[Money]

Oh my 0z GFS for the Feb 1st/2nd system...

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f276/sfcconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f288/sfcconus.png

[Money]

Big ice storm

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f288/prateptypeconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f288/sfctconus.png

[hlcater]

Southward please. This storm looks so big I am getting selfish

[Money]

Snowmap:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f300/24hkucherasnowmw.png

[Tom]

This one will probably end up being another Blizzard somewhere...many storms like this happened in LRC cycle #2 and probably won't deny in the 3rd cycle, especially, when there will be more cold air around to tap into.  It's been the pattern since late Autumn with storms coming out of the Rockies and blowing up.  Given the pattern during this period, would not be surprised if this one goes all out.

[Money]

This one will probably end up being another Blizzard somewhere...happened in LRC cycle #2 and probably won't deny the 3rd time around.  It's been the pattern since late Autumn with storms coming out of the Rockies and blowing up.  Given the pattern during this period, would not be surprised if this one goes all out.

 

Need the high to build in a bit quicker to force this south, but this run would be an major ice storm. Looks like a pretty strong HP system that could funnel down a lot of cold air.

 

GFS has had this for a lot of runs now so something to watch in the next week. 

[Tom]

Need the high to build in a bit quicker to force this south, but this run would be an major ice storm. Looks like a pretty strong HP system that could funnel down a lot of cold air.

 

GFS has had this for a lot of runs now so something to watch in the next week. 

I have no doubts there will be a significant storm system.  Operational/Ensembles are in remarkable agreement 10+ days out.  It's like for the EC storm Blitz, models have been seeing this storm 4-5 days out in very good consistency.  You can imagine if a model (s) can see this energy 10 days out, it must be something big.

[Money]

I have no doubts there will be a significant storm system.  Operational/Ensembles are in remarkable agreement 10+ days out.  It's like for the EC storm Blitz, models have been seeing this storm 4-5 days out in very good consistency.  You can imagine if a model (s) can see this energy 10 days out, it must be something big.

 

Yeah  pretty sure the models nailed that EC system. 5 days out it was showing it in the pretty much same exact spot. No big trends either direction. 

[winterfreak]

Usher in some colder air sooner and we have something. Hoping this can do just that for all of us.

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160122/00Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

30+ inches of snow overall this run in some spots. 

[Tom]

Need the high to build in a bit quicker to force this south, but this run would be an major ice storm. Looks like a pretty strong HP system that could funnel down a lot of cold air.

 

GFS has had this for a lot of runs now so something to watch in the next week. 

One of the teleconnections to look out for is the EPO and the building NE PAC ridge.  Models tend to underdo the strength of the HP in CA in the longer range.

[gabel23]

This one will probably end up being another Blizzard somewhere...many storms like this happened in LRC cycle #2 and probably won't deny in the 3rd cycle, especially, when there will be more cold air around to tap into.  It's been the pattern since late Autumn with storms coming out of the Rockies and blowing up.  Given the pattern during this period, would not be surprised if this one goes all out.

Call me crazy; but it seems a monster storm on the east coast usually means a monster for the Midwest/central plains. In past years I always remember seeing huge storms in either location followed by another down/upstream a week or so later. The one that comes to mind is the x mas blizzard of 2009. I hope so, I would like to experience a storm that would be half the magnitude the east coast will be seeing this weekend.........

[Tom]

Call me crazy; but it seems a monster storm on the east coast usually means a monster for the Midwest/central plains. In past years I always remember seeing huge storms in either location followed by another down/upstream a week or so later. The one that comes to mind is the x mas blizzard of 2009. I hope so, I would like to experience a storm that would be half the magnitude the east coast will be seeing this weekend.........

Feb/Mar climo speaking are the big dog months anyway and with the amount of dynamic storms that have gone through your region this season, I wouldn't be surprised if you get nailed by one or maybe more than that before the season is over.

[Tom]

I'd like to track a few storms of similar caliber over our sub-forum next month and into March.  Seems like the amount of energy in the atmosphere has a long way to go before we write off Winter.  I still think we have a good 50+ days to go.

[Money]

6z back south

 

12+ for Chicago this run

[hlcater]

this time tomorrow we will be able to paint a better picture as it will be in the range of several more models as it passes inside of hr. 240

[Tom]

Some big hitters showing up on the 12z GEFS and many snowy solutions...one thing in common, most members showing a SLP developing near the TX Panhandle.  Coincidence???  During LRC cycle #2,  a 986mb SLP developed right near this region and tracked ENE towards the western lakes.  Let's see what happens this time around.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing mid 50's in the Dakotas/NE/KS/MO next Friday...Chinook winds are going to torch these parts late next week.  Looks like a snow pack killer out that way.

[Tom]

GFS/Euro in disagreement within the 5-10 day range so it'll be an interesting battle to see what happens.

[Geos]

GGEM looking like it would produce a good storm for February 1-2. Northern branch system gets out of the way quickly.

 

[Tom]

Southern Plains and the South are going to have temps approaching 80F in spots later next week, esp in TX/LA/AR...

 

@ OKC, might have to bring out the shorts for a few days down there!

 

Talk about a huge trough digging in the west...

[Tony]

GFS/Euro in disagreement within the 5-10 day range so it'll be an interesting battle to see what happens.

Sorry but I don't trust the Euro at all this winter especially 3+ days out...been off on pretty much every storm system.

[OKwx2k4]

Southern Plains and the South are going to have temps approaching 80F in spots later next week, esp in TX/LA/AR...

 

@ OKC, might have to bring out the shorts for a few days down there!

 

Talk about a huge trough digging in the west...

Well, if I can't get snow, might as well torch. Probably be breaking out the lawnmower by before March is over this year.

[Maxim]

Sorry but I don't trust the Euro at all this winter especially 3+ days out...been off on pretty much every storm system.

the GFS really hasn't been that much better tbh.