Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 That HP is very cold on this run...its now showing snow in parts of N IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Yeah, se Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 At this rate it will be snowing in Atlanta and Jacksonville if it keeps moving SE at this rate. Not sure of this according to some things I have read and the speed it is moving. Will be interested in the Euro. If it goes SE then I think my chances are diminishing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 That air mass in the Dakotas keeps getting colder each run and shunting the system SE on the GFS. The fresh snow pack from the first wave is causing the shift IMO. Who knows what happens from here on out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Let's go ahead and lock that in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Jim Flowers new facebook video sure does not sing the praises of the GFS. Says there has been model error for years. If you get a chance watch his explanation. Very interesting and I hope it verifies for Nebraskans sake. He is pro Euro so that might be part of it. I keep saying, let the best model win and by Monday night we can see which was correct. Jim believes it will be the Euro track and not the latest GFS for what it is worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 i'm a fan of this run for sure. I feel a bit bad for some of the Nebraska people who looked like they were going to cash in, but still plenty of time for this to move. But the trend is definitely SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 If anyone is up when the Euro snowfall maps come out and can post them I would greatly appreciate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Huge improvement for Northern Illinois, Southern Wisconsin, Southern Michigan, Northern Indiana and Ohio. The SE trend very apparent on the snowfall map and is quite impressive. 6z:12z:18z:00z: Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Jim Flowers new facebook video sure does not sing the praises of the GFS. Says there has been model error for years. If you get a chance watch his explanation. Very interesting and I hope it verifies for Nebraskans sake. He is pro Euro so that might be part of it. I keep saying, let the best model win and by Monday night we can see which was correct. Jim believes it will be the Euro track and not the latest GFS for what it is worth.If the Euro begins the shift SE, then I'd start becoming hesitant. Otherwise, there is still plenty of time to see how this evolves. Gut tells me that the models were underplaying the magnitude of the HP. We'll just have to see. I'm going to try and stay up for the Euro. Gotta be up at the crack of dawn tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 We need our snow in Nebraska or some of us might start to flip out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 If anyone is up when the Euro snowfall maps come out and can post them I would greatly appreciate it. I will if I'm still awake when it comes out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 With you clint Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Canadian similar to GFS in track, but no cold air once it moves out of Texas. All rain. http://i.imgur.com/goq0z8O.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 In in SE MN, so I too will freak out. But I don't think it's necessary. Reflecting on the December 24th 2009 blizzard, same thing happened. I remember being on Craigs snowday website, freaking out that it went too far SE. 48 hours before, the inevitable NW turn occurs. Is this going to happen for sure? No. But since then, we've seen time and time again, that powerhouse storms like to hook, and, if anything, this thing will hook NW. Just my two cents #nojinx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thanks for your insight I wasn't following weather that close in 2009. Hoping it comes back on gfs though so far euro is our friend through 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 GGEM seems a bit on its own. All other models are showing snow on the NW side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 GGEM seems a bit on its own. All other models are showing snow on the NW side.As much as I love this model, how many times have we ever said "wow, the GGEM was right"? Again, I love it, sometimes it gets the track correct, but with precipitation it's usually pretty far off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 I'd toss those SE tracks. That high isn't going to suppress the system that much. I can say with 100% certainty that this will be all rain for MBY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 ripping flow right off of lake michigan isn't going to help either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 ripping flow right off of lake michigan isn't going to help either.Sad we have to worry about that at the end of December. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 00z:gfs_asnow_ncus_27.png850 mb temps look too warm for that to fall as all snow too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Euro has initialized Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 850 mb temps look too warm for that to fall as all snow too.yea gotta be careful with snowfall maps in areas with borderline temps, especially those from tropical tidbits for comparison, here's the snowfall map from another site for the same timeframe no snow for southern Michigan on this map compared to 12"+ on tropical tidbits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 zoomed in euro para top photo Scary sharp gradient in southeast Nebraska. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Sad we have to worry about that at the end of December. We had that for the November system too, immediate lake shore areas might have issues. All depends on how deep the cold air is. GFS is baby stepping in the right direction, hopefully it continues and holds. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 We had that for the November system too, immediate lake shore areas might have issues. All depends on how deep the cold air is. GFS is baby stepping in the right direction, hopefully it continues and holds.Winds weren't nearly as strong during the November system too, which would explain why the lake didn't cut down much on snow totals (with the exception of downtown, of course.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 First wave to the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Is that part of the bigger storm? I see that across South Dakota and am curious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 We had that for the November system too, immediate lake shore areas might have issues. All depends on how deep the cold air is. GFS is baby stepping in the right direction, hopefully it continues and holds.Yeah my family in Evanston says they only got a few inches. Cousins in Deerfield reported 7" while O'Hare got 11.2. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Nope, just first wave which will influence track of main storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Winds weren't nearly as strong during the November system too, which would explain why the lake didn't cut down much on snow totals (with the exception of downtown, of course.) True they were lighter. One thing about the next 48 hours, strong west winds will act to updwell some colder water on the western side of Lake Michigan. Surprisingly the warmest waters are actually further north. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Nope, just first wave which will influence track of main storm Seeing plenty of cold air at 120 hours flowing in from Canada. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 A lot of warm air on the Euro as the low wraps up and moves North. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Big change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 EURO snaps me back down to reality. Expecting a Rainer out of this one. Waiting for the GFS to cave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 I can't wait for Jim flowers explanation on why the euro sucked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 23, 2015 Report Share Posted December 23, 2015 Would look like central and western Nebraska do better on this run than the gfs but not good this run for kc or eastern Nebraska. This will frustrate and teas all of us in the coming days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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