GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[jcwxguy]

102

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Dr Forbes mentioned a possible tornado outbreak in southern Missouri and dixie alley. This storm is going to be crazy

 

I don't know if anyone remembers February 5-6, 2008, but that was a big snowstorm in S Wisconsin and in the same storm Memphis had a devastating tornado, so it's not uncharted territory to have this setup.

[NEJeremy]

at the 500mb level at hr 84 it's slightly further north than 06Z and 0Z runs. On the Euro runs the path of the 500mb low has been important to where the heaviest snows have fallen. That's why we've seen the snows still so far back in Nebraska despite a low tracking near St Louis.

[jcwxguy]

108

[jcwxguy]

whole storm

[Snowshoe]

NAM trolling me again!

 

06z NAM...amping up the 1st wave for Wisco and parts of SE MN...

[gosaints]

madison jackpot

[NEJeremy]

12Z GFS back north a bit again at least for our parts. Back up to 15" on that run!

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160129/12Z/f120/acckucherasnowmw.png

[gabel23]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160129/12Z/f120/acckucherasnowmw.png

Call me greedy, but make that jackpot area bigger please! I would like to see the 12+" swath about 100 miles wide, share the wealth! 

[mlgamer]

12z GFS...I live in snow lovers purgatory...perpetually stuck just south of the rain/snow line...

[gosaints]

Synoptically looking at that run it could easily shift either direction.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM-

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -1.9    -6.2    1018      84      99    0.01     547     533    TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -3.2    -6.1    1010      96     100    0.35     543     535    TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -2.3    -6.5    1005      91      99    0.44     534     531    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -4.0    -8.4    1003      91      98    0.10     528     526    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -8.8   -11.3    1009      89      99    0.06     527     520    WED 12Z 03-FEB -12.6   -12.4    1017      89      46    0.01     530     517 

[hlcater]

GFS shifted ever slightly NW with the snow and from 06z.

[Snowlover76]

better so far, lets see if the Euro can make it 2 in a row 

[gosaints]

The GGEM wont.  LOL at the model spread

[gabel23]

better so far, lets see if the Euro can make it 2 in a row 

If you check your GRID out, OAX already has the mention of heavy snow for the Lincoln/Omaha corridor along with windy conditions. You guys are about as golden as it can get. I'm right on the line......

[gosaints]

The GGEM wont.  LOL at the model spread

Edit.  Looks like a UKIE solution from yesterday..  Chicago jackpot.  Low end warning

[indianajohn]

Chicago/NWI is forecasted for a high of 43 Tuesday.... right now doesn't look like we get in on the action, still plenty of time for it to change but not looking good.

[Geos]

D**n GFS. I wish it was Sunday

 

 I know really.

6z track was ideal for here.

[Snowlover76]

If you check your GRID out, OAX already has the mention of heavy snow for the Lincoln/Omaha corridor along with windy conditions. You guys are about as golden as it can get. I'm right on the line......

Kinda weird to see OAX jumping the gun on this so early, normally they are the last to react. 

[gabel23]

Kinda weird to see OAX jumping the gun on this so early, normally they are the last to react. 

Best part, if you go to Accuweather they just have Blizzard in your forecast for Tuesday! 

[Grizzcoat]

Kinda weird to see OAX jumping the gun on this so early, normally they are the last to react. 

 

Not true. The last to react- bar none- is DMX. Been living here for 18 years and DMX is ALWAYS THE LAST to issue Winter Weather Advisories/Warnings.

[Snowlover76]

Not true. The last to react- bar none- is DMX. Been living here for 18 years and DMX is ALWAYS THE LAST to issue Winter Weather Advisories/Warnings.

Binghamton was pretty bad when I was growing up.  

[jcwxguy]

cmc

[gosaints]

Ukie somewhat similar position to GFS

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[NEJeremy]

Best part, if you go to Accuweather they just have Blizzard in your forecast for Tuesday! 

Yeah never seen that before. My forecast from Accuweather has 15.2" forecasted!

[Geos]

CMC has a much stronger lead wave.

 

 

Will use this thread for this system as well. I think once we get to tomorrow night will start a Part II.

[Naddan85]

http://i.imgur.com/WekXeb3.jpg

 

[Hawkeye]

I wonder why the models are so different with the earlier lead wave.  There is a 15 mb difference between the 12z CMC and UK.

[gosaints]

Lots of ensemble members way way way east.....

[jcwxguy]

Lots of ensemble members way way way east.....

cmc or gfs?

[gosaints]

so much for any consensus.  Getting worse as we get closer

[gosaints]

cmc or gfs?

GFS. 

 

No consensus anywhere

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS back farther northwest.  I guess I need to see the Canadian side by side between 0Z and 12Z runs to compare how it has changed for my Central Nebraska location.  I would sure like the GFS but we take what we get.  Does anyone else still think we will keep seeing changes through most of Monday?  This might be the longest storm I have tracked and I am a relative newbie on this site so wondering if this could turn into a nowcast for very specific amounts.

[gosaints]

GFS back farther northwest.  I guess I need to see the Canadian side by side between 0Z and 12Z runs to compare how it has changed for my Central Nebraska location.  I would sure like the GFS but we take what we get.  Does anyone else still think we will keep seeing changes through most of Monday?  This might be the longest storm I have tracked and I am a relative newbie on this side so wondering if this could turn into a nowcast for very specific amounts.

Expect changes. Some drastic until it gets on shore.  You basically have the GFS and the UKIE hammering you right now.

 

GGEM and the ensembles look terrible there.  Either camp could be right

[Tony]

For the past 100 runs or so most of the heavy snow showing up has been north and west of Chicago and it really hasn't changed much. I would have caved to this idea if it wasn't for the ensembles continuing to show a SE track and still continue to show this. I really don't have any clue on what is going to transpire, only thing etched in stone is that there will be a blizzard somewhere close by. I can easily see another sleet storm(with current gfs track) for our area as colder air will definitely be in place. The exact track of this storm probably won't be figured out till probably Monday night.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks gosaints.  I am a teacher so you can imagine the questions I am getting from high school students as they see local media give differing amounts and if we will have a snow day next week.  I try and give fairly straight forward answers that different computer models have different scenarios and we have really no idea which one will verify so we wait.

[Snowlover76]

Lots of ensemble members way way way east.....

Great....

[gosaints]

Thanks gosaints.  I am a teacher so you can imagine the questions I am getting from high school students as they see local media give differing amounts and if we will have a snow day next week.  I try and give fairly straight forward answers that different computer models have different scenarios and we have really no idea which one will verify so we wait.

Show them the GGEM and the GFS and they should get a picture