WBadgersW Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 The thermometer in my truck said its 45 out already.Shorts weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Euro should be starting soon. I imagine it either stays the same or jumps NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 EURO was just south of where the NAM is now. Would be something if it stays the same. Low is going to come out near Roswell. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160201/12Z/f024/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Looks NW to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Looks NW to me From the 0z yes, from the last 12z not really. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 From the 0z yes, from the last 12z not really.It don't look far NW from the 0z but it's enough NW where it's noticeable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 i was just hoping to squeeze a couple inches out of this...looks like no chance of that. Maybe we will get a good thunderstorm roll through. Get some kind of excitement here. but its been fun watching the models dance all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160201/12Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Geos, so you think we could squeeze 2-3" on the backside Wed. morning? Sure would be welcome, it's been a lean year for plowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 31 Here ice fog this am. Supposed to be 42 today thinking it may not get as warm as expected maybe it help Snow instead of rain later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Geos, so you think we could squeeze 2-3" on the backside Wed. morning? Sure would be welcome, it's been a lean year for plowing. Yeah, with this type of system setup it looks like a decent shot at that. Every model is showing it in the general area. When system start occluding, the low elongate out from top to bottom and moisture likes to collect along that axis as the surface low departs. Seen it before. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 31 Here ice fog this am. Supposed to be 42 today thinking it may not get as warm as expected maybe it help Snow instead of rain later [/quote you haven't thrown your towel in yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 So is the Canadian the only one south now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Are euro snow maps out yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 MSP went WS warning for 6 counties (minus Anoka cty) from nothing. I expect the reverse on the S side of this system. Thanks Mr. El Nino. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Not yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Not yet. you're in Burlington right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 You know what's funny...The RGEM is the furthest north. But it is the coldest model and seeing where the low is starting to form in NM it would start off on the right foot. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK LAT= 40.85 LON= -96.75 ELE= 1188 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 01-FEB -2.3 -0.2 1016 74 34 0.00 550 537 MON 18Z 01-FEB 5.1 -1.5 1017 48 77 0.00 551 537 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 3.4 -2.6 1014 72 95 0.01 550 539 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 2.6 -2.1 1012 80 100 0.04 550 540 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.3 -5.0 1002 92 100 0.35 542 540 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.2 -2.9 998 95 66 0.60 530 532 WED 00Z 03-FEB -1.6 -5.1 1002 93 98 0.20 531 529 WED 06Z 03-FEB -4.3 -9.4 1012 85 72 0.08 533 524 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OLU LAT= 41.45 LON= -97.33 ELE= 1444 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 01-FEB -3.4 -1.0 1016 69 27 0.00 548 535 MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.6 -1.9 1017 50 57 0.00 550 536 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 3.2 -2.6 1015 66 96 0.00 549 537 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 1.3 -3.0 1014 89 100 0.05 548 537 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -0.2 -5.5 1006 89 98 0.12 542 537 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -2.2 -6.9 1003 94 94 0.80 531 529 WED 00Z 03-FEB -3.2 -8.2 1006 89 98 0.17 531 526 WED 06Z 03-FEB -5.2 -8.9 1014 83 86 0.04 534 522 WED 12Z 03-FEB -8.0 -9.4 1020 83 59 0.00 536 520 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 No matter how good any model is (short or long term) they simply can not handle this type of event. Way- WAY to many variables involved in the math/physics to figure this out. A super computer on par with the EURO,, can figure it out-- but it would take right up to the point of verification for it to be correct. The physics/math in atmosphere physics = near infinite variables . To think we can figure it out-- think again. It's like Mother Nature says--- screw you human,, I run the show. Fun to watch nature win every time no matter how good we think we our. We are no match against the Creator. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 01-FEB -3.3 -0.9 1017 86 21 0.00 549 536 MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.8 -1.7 1018 54 40 0.00 551 536 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 4.6 -1.9 1015 65 91 0.00 550 538 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 2.9 -2.0 1014 81 100 0.04 550 539 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.7 -3.7 1005 89 100 0.24 544 540 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.8 -2.8 999 92 37 0.52 533 533 WED 00Z 03-FEB -0.4 -3.0 1001 92 83 0.11 531 531 WED 06Z 03-FEB -3.6 -8.4 1009 85 80 0.08 532 525 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH LAT= 43.98 LON= -88.55 ELE= 807 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 01-FEB -4.8 -4.2 1014 90 37 0.00 540 528 MON 18Z 01-FEB -1.4 -3.3 1018 87 67 0.00 542 528 TUE 00Z 02-FEB -0.4 -4.2 1019 90 27 0.00 545 530 TUE 06Z 02-FEB -4.5 -4.1 1021 98 9 0.00 550 533 TUE 12Z 02-FEB -5.7 -3.6 1022 95 17 0.00 552 534 TUE 18Z 02-FEB -0.4 -4.2 1016 92 100 0.02 551 538 WED 00Z 03-FEB 0.3 -5.6 1007 93 95 0.36 547 541 WED 06Z 03-FEB -0.2 -0.6 1001 95 23 0.13 538 537 WED 12Z 03-FEB -2.3 -4.3 1000 91 96 0.04 531 531 WED 18Z 03-FEB THU 00Z 04-FEB THU 06Z 04-FEB -6.9 -16.5 1020 82 19 533 518 THU 12Z 04-FEB -12.6 -13.9 1024 83 45 0.00 531 512 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: VTI LAT= 42.22 LON= -92.02 ELE= 846 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 12Z 01-FEB -4.8 -2.3 1016 94 29 0.00 547 534 MON 18Z 01-FEB 4.2 -2.2 1018 69 24 0.00 549 534 TUE 00Z 02-FEB 1.4 -2.2 1018 76 14 0.00 551 536 TUE 06Z 02-FEB 0.1 -2.3 1019 86 80 0.01 552 537 TUE 12Z 02-FEB 0.5 -3.1 1014 85 98 0.05 551 540 TUE 18Z 02-FEB 0.9 -4.9 1006 87 99 0.29 547 542 WED 00Z 03-FEB 1.1 0.1 1000 94 38 0.16 537 537 WED 06Z 03-FEB 0.4 -1.9 999 96 99 0.04 533 534 WED 12Z 03-FEB -2.4 -7.0 1005 87 85 0.14 530 526 WED 18Z 03-FEB THU 00Z 04-FEB THU 06Z 04-FEB -13.6 -10.3 1026 81 39 535 515 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Please let the euro be right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Please let the euro be rightif its right, we are looking at around 8-10" here due to low ratios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 if its right, we are looking at around 8-10" here due to low ratios? I thought ratios were looking good for this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 it sucks the way the Euro really craps the bed as it moves east. really is weakening it's qpf as it heads into eastern Nebraska and points east. I think Omaha is still good for 9-10" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 You know what's funny...The RGEM is the furthest north. But it is the coldest model and seeing where the low is starting to form in NM it would start off on the right foot. GHD III tracks Monday12z.jpgI saw this but what implications, if any, would come from this. Guessing it still would eventually take the same track but maybe come in a tad colder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Snowing for awhile here. .8 mile visibility and this isn't even the main event. Ground is covered. I think we are finishing school but all activities after school are cancelled and no school on Tuesday and they said be prepared for no school on Wednesday. I wasn't expecting much snow this early but I will take it before the biggie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 ? I thought ratios were looking good for this?between surface temps and 850, its gonna be a very wet snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 EURO is actually the furthest south to the east.Going to start plotting the actual low track to see which model gets it mostly right.It repeats what the RGEM is doing to the west. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 between surface temps and 850, its gonna be a very wet snowalso part of the reason why they didn't issue a blizzard warning. snow isn't going to blow around that easily 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 accuweather sticking to it's guns, and keeping Omaha in the 12-18" range. Specifically gives me 14". They have been pretty accurate lately 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 accuweather sticking to it's guns, and keeping Omaha in the 12-18" range. Specifically gives me 14". They have been pretty accurate lately sticking to them here also, so far, if they update, it will be around 4-6pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 also part of the reason why they didn't issue a blizzard warning. snow isn't going to blow around that easilyTough to get a Blizzard in an major urban area. MPX has not had one that included urban areas in decades. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Precip totals have increased also. No snow here yet, but I'm thinking pretty much everything in the state will be closed down tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Snowing like crazy here. A little bit ago it was down to 1/2 mile visibility. So far I would say it is overperforming from what I expected. I just thought some light snow later in the afternoon. Many students that live in the country have already left that either drive or were picked up by their parents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff68007 Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Omaha metro schools are starting to announce school closures for tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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