Ground Hog Day Blizzard/Snowstorm Part II

[hlcater]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png

 

RGEM sticking to its guns. Not buying it.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160201/18Z/f021/sfcconus.png

[gabel23]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160201/18Z/f015/sfcconus.png

 

Holy buckets 991!!!!

[Jaycee]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png

 

 

RGEM sticking to its guns. Not buying it.

RGEM has held its ground since 48 hours out, hardly any movement or shift in totals. This thing is strengthening before our eyes, I think MANY of us will be surprised, whether that be lack of/enhanced totals.

[Snowlover76]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_asnow_ncus_14.png

 

RGEM sticking to its guns. Not buying it.

PLEASE BE RIGHT 

[Snowlover76]

apparently the RGEM nailed the snow totals for the east coast blizzard within 24 hours so this bodes well for us 

[GDR]

Some of us might be bi polar

[Jaycee]

apparently the RGEM nailed the snow totals for the east coast blizzard within 24 hours so this bodes well for us

It's done incredibly well this year. From what I can tell, the RAP is similar, D**n HRRR is busted right now (of course...), it's also evident the NWS is siding with it. Sure hope it pulls this off.

[Snowlover76]

Some off us might be bi polar

whatsup? 

[clintbeed1993]

Really thinking the heaviest will be from my area back to the Southwest.  Central Nebraska Weather will do great!  We should easily be able to pull off 12+

[SnowO]

A live news conference right now in Omaha regarding this storm. Lol!! Sounds like a 100yr storm is abt to hit.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am predicting 17" plus. We already have close to 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow. Even though the wind is not blowing that strong yet there has been some drifting. When it gets colder and drier snow with 50 mph plus winds as some predict when the really heavy snow arrives things will be awesome to watch from my living room

[hlcater]

I am predicting 17" plus. We already have close to 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow. Even though the wind is not blowing that strong yet there has been some drifting. When it gets colder and drier snow with 50 mph plus winds as some predict when the really heavy snow arrives things will be awesome to watch from my living room

Time Lapse? That'll be cool.

[Snowshoe]

NWS Green Bay AFD

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A MAJOR WINTER
STORM ON TUESDAY. THE SNOW MAY BE A TAD BIT LATER TO START...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CURRENT START TIMES OF THE WARNINGS.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL DATA...THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VILAS
COUNTY WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE COMBO
OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW AND THEN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL
PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW INTO THE
MID EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY UNTIL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE TUESDAY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCOURS OUT FOR
A PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL IMPACT SNOW TOTALS. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO A MIX
OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND EVEN SOME DRIZZLE (NEAR THE
LAKESHORE). THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO
ALL SNOW LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SEVERAL MODELS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW. SOME DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION ON THE MODELS...SO DID NOT EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IF THIS FEATURE STILL HOLDS TRUE ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN...MAY NEED
TO EXTEND THE WARNING IN THIS REGION. DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE MIXING TAKING PLACE IN THIS REGION.
RAISED SNOW TOTALS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DUE TO COMBO
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM.

[Snowlover76]

I am predicting 17" plus. We already have close to 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow. Even though the wind is not blowing that strong yet there has been some drifting. When it gets colder and drier snow with 50 mph plus winds as some predict when the really heavy snow arrives things will be awesome to watch from my living room

24" for you 

[CentralNebWeather]

I would take it. We will see where heavy bands set up in the next 24 hours. They are now saying it has slowed by 6 hours which should only add to the totals

[Jaycee]

HRRR levels the whole state, similar to the RGEM.

[CentralNebWeather]

Some early pictures of the precursor snow. Definitely more than I thought.

[Geos]

https://www.facebook.com/clint.beed/videos/1114265028586037/?pnref=story

 

First flakes of the Blizzard of 2016.  3 P.M. Aurora, Nebraska

 

Looking good Clint.

[Geos]

apparently the RGEM nailed the snow totals for the east coast blizzard within 24 hours so this bodes well for us 

 

It's a good model close in.

Still not discounting a couple inches here.

[Geos]

Hmm... lowest pressure down by Big Bend.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

1/2 mile visibility in heavy snow. Winds east at 15 gusts to 20 mph. Sticking to streets and sidewalks. Getting treacherous out

[FarmerRick]

Randby at KETV Omaha just called for 6-8"

[Jaycee]

HRRR @ Hour 11:

 

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_12.png

 

Hour 14: Incredible Snowfall Rates near Lincoln/Omaha, lot more following:

 

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_15.png

 

 

According to this model, the banding setup is further south than the GFS/NAM, it essentially packs a punch for every Nebraskan on this forum. It'd be ideal for it to pan out.

[FarmerRick]

Lots of dry air in northern Kansas

 

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/SIR/inmaSIRNE_.gif

[Jaycee]

Lots of dry air in northern Kansas

 

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/SIR/inmaSIRNE_.gif

HRRR picks up on it. It wasn't supposed to begin until late anyways, so this unexpected dendrite type rainfall/snowfall on the radar could be saturating the atmosphere for later, which is a plus. Here is the total through 15 hour, still heavy snow falling throughout the whole state. 

 

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_snow_central_16.png

Thundersnow looking more and more inevitable around here. Though we won't get the totals like Clint/CentralNebWeather, we're going to get some incredible snowfall rates.

[CentralNebWeather]

HRRR @ Hour 11:

 

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_12.png

 

Hour 14: Incredible Snowfall Rates near Lincoln/Omaha, lot more following:

 

http://weather.graphics/hrrr/2016020122/central/hrrr_ref_central_15.png

 

 

According to this model, the banding setup is further south than the GFS/NAM, it essentially packs a punch for every Nebraskan on this forum. It'd be ideal for it to pan out.

Wow. Those rates with 50-60 mph wind gusts would be legendary

[Geos]

Would love to see this happen tomorrow morning. If it does I'll be shooting video.

 

[hlcater]

HRRR is siding with the RGEM? all hope may not be lost

[SnowO]

Hmm... lowest pressure down by Big Bend.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s15/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1454368621527

[SnowO]

What's your take on this?

[WBadgersW]

Would love to see this happen tomorrow morning. If it does I'll be shooting video.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020118/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_8.png

That would be pretty sweet. Maybe tomorrow we can get lucky and have a repeat of the 28th! Lol na

[Geos]

What's your take on this?

 

Low looks to be forming near Abilene right now. Pressure falls would suggest the low being in Texas for awhile at least.

 

[Geos]

That would be pretty sweet. Maybe tomorrow we can get lucky and have a repeat of the 28th! Lol na

 

Lol.

Weirder things have happened though.

 

[hlcater]

well, the RGEM and HRRR drill me with 8-10 inches. What are the odds that they are correct. I know that the HRRR is a very good model predicting how storms will evolve.

[Geos]

We'll have to watch and see if the low loops into KS like the models have it or does it go from central OK up into SE KS more.

I don't know if it is going to retrograde that far back.

 

RGEM has it getting to 22° by midnight, let's see how close it can get. 10° to go.

 

[NEJeremy]

23Z HRRR is definitely southeast of where it was on the 22Z at hour 10.

[Geos]

23Z HRRR is definitely southeast of where it was on the 22Z at hour 10.

 

This is matching up real nice.

 

 

[Snowlover76]

23Z HRRR is definitely southeast of where it was on the 22Z at hour 10.

Nice. Is it still moist?

[Geos]

Low goes all the way to Tulsa by 1am.