Ground Hog Day Blizzard/Snowstorm Part II

[Snowlover76]

I just saw that the university of Nebraska Lincoln is closed tomorrow. Whoa.

Hell yea. No genetics lab

[GDR]

Temp been hovering around 32 all day we were 10 below expected highs today. hopefully it help us cash in on some Snow.

throwing the towel in yet?

[Snowlover76]

I'm living on the edge in Lincoln. Boy it'll be close. Please NAM be right, ahh. The stress is real.

I think we see at least 6"

 

UNL cancelled class anyway so I don't care now

[Jaycee]

HOLY S***!!! The HRRR has south lincoln getting 8" in like 2 hours! over 17", things getting interesting! Low is down to 988 mb now. The emotions I feel right now are real, I really hope we get slammed!

[Iowa2015]

Lol Not yet Still a chance we can score some Snow if the rgem correct

[CentralNebWeather]

The hrrr is good for most of the state. I get 14 tomorrow if verifies

[Geos]

Temperature is under guidance here. 27°

 

There goes the low into OK.

 

[Jaycee]

That moment when the Omadome and Lincodome join forces

 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=oax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[gabel23]

OAX updated disco, mention thundersnow....

 

 

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 830 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016

NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
LOOP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWED CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH WAS CREATING LIFT AND SLOWLY SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE
LOCALLY. HEAVY SNOW WAS FALLING TO THE WEST IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LIGHTNING HAD DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

00Z KOAX SOUNDING HAD AROUND 0.41 PW BUT LOWER LEVELS WERE STILL
FAIRLY DRY. LAPSE RATES ABOVE 600 MB WERE FAIRLY STEEP. 300 MB
CHART AT 00Z HAD A 125 KT JETSTREAK PUNCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER REGION. AT 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS ESTIMATED AT
UP TO 150 METERS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WERE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THERE WAS A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT AT 700 MB ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LOW BACK OVER COLORADO. AT 850 MB...
THERE WAS NOT MUCH COLD AIR NOTED. ACROSS NEBRASKA...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY -2 TO -5 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHEST
850 MB DEWPOINTS WERE 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE GULF
COAST. SURFACE LOW AT 02Z WAS STILL OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
WITH ANOTHER IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

EXPECT THAT RADAR ECHOES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE RECENT SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAIRLY STRONG BAND OF 700-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN IOWA.
FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE TROWAL AREA THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER REGION...THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH
NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER BY AROUND 12Z. THAT AREA OF
INSTABILITY MAY LIFT UP INTO THE OMAHA AREA IN THE MORNING AS DRY
SLOT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS. IF IT DOES...THERE
MAY BE A BURST OF HEAVY SNOW IN THE MORNING (AND ADDED SOME ISOLD
THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST)...A BRIEF LULL BY NOON...AND THEN SNOW
PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

AGAIN NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL UPDATE ALL TEXT
PRODUCTS BEFORE 9 PM CST.

[TakemetoMontana]

Is it gonna shift far enough southeast to bring extreme Nw Missouri back into play?

[jcwxguy]

00z gfs is south fwiw, caved to euro/nam

[Snowlover76]

I love being wrong.

[jcwxguy]

HOLY S***!!! The HRRR has south lincoln getting 8" in like 2 hours! over 17", things getting interesting! Low is down to 988 mb now. The emotions I feel right now are real, I really hope we get slammed!

can i have the link please?

[Geos]

Is it gonna shift far enough southeast to bring extreme Nw Missouri back into play?

 

HRRR has been painting some ice and snow in your area.

 

[Geos]

RGEM has not backed down on snow around here. Actually it increased amounts!

 

[hlcater]

RGEM cut my total in 1/2

[gabel23]

00z gfs is south fwiw, caved to euro/nam

yeah it did, back to what it looked like a night ago. 

[Snowlover76]

Holy crap

[clintbeed1993]

Thing is looking juicer and juicer.  Think we may very well see some records fall.

[Jaycee]

RGEM has not backed down on snow around here. Actually it increased amounts!

 

http://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016020200/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png

Definitely picking up on thundersnow! Look at that tiny band of 20"+ in between Omaha and lincoln.

[gabel23]

Thing is looking juicer and juicer.  Think we may very well see some records fall.

 

 

Definitely picking up on thundersnow! Look at that tiny band of 20"+ in between Omaha and lincoln.

Wow that looks very impressive, as does the line of storms forming to our south. Gonna be a very interesting night to say the least!

[Geos]

Definitely picking up on thundersnow! Look at that tiny band of 20"+ in between Omaha and lincoln.

 

I think there is going to be some 18"+ lollipops for sure.

[Guest Snowball]

God I hope that verifies! It's been a long day waiting! Radar trends looking good!

[hlcater]

Wish I was there. One of you NE folks needs to get a timelapse going.

[Geos]

Actually the only models that have the temps right in this area is the GEM and RGEM. NAM models are 4-5° too warm for this time of the night.

There's goes the convection. It will probably start to pull the low towards Tulsa.

 

[GDR]

This could be one that comes once in a lifetime and guess what? It's not Chicago!

[Snowlover76]

I like how right after Jim Cantore says that he's not brodcasting from Omaha and that he's going to Sioux City instead, everything trends better into the favor of Omaha and Lincoln.

 

That bugger better stay in Sioux City though. 

[Snowlover76]

I wonder if OAX will change their forecast? 

[Tony]

Geos, things could get interesting here for awhile tomorrow if Temps stay where they are or even trend lower and throw in some dynamic cooling and we could see something good happen. Still thinking it could be sleet.

[Geos]

CMC thru 24 hours. Still snowing...

 

[jcwxguy]

LPS is closed- shocker 

[Geos]

3z HRRR snowfall

 

[Madtown]

Cmc for the win!!! Then I will never follow another model again.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Actually the only models that have the temps right in this area is the GEM and RGEM. NAM models are 4-5° too warm for this time of the night.

There's goes the convection. It will probably start to pull the low towards Tulsa.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/TLX/N0Q/TLX.N0Q.20160202.0406.gif

 

Your area always cools off rapidly at night, and the models often don't account for the localized effects like that, so I wouldn't put much stock in your local temp on Mt Geos.

[Geos]

Geos, things could get interesting here for awhile tomorrow if Temps stay where they are or even trend lower and throw in some dynamic cooling and we could see something good happen. Still thinking it could be sleet.

 

Dewpoints in the mid to upper 20s across northern IL and 20s over a widespread area right now. It's not localized. http://www.aviationweather.gov/metar?zoom=5&lat=43.28323&lon=-92.6604&layers=B00FFTFFFFFTT&plottype=temp%2Cwind%2Cwx%2Ccover%2Cdew%2Cwgst%2Cid&scale=1&density=0&metric=false&decoded=false&taf=false

 

There's the CMC

 

 

[Madtown]

Sitting at 29 currently. Low forecasted was 29.

[NEJeremy]

Yuck- the HRRR really brings in the dry slot to Omaha tomorrow afternoon. Please, please, please stay southeast of us!

[Geos]

MSN at 26°/24° currently.

 

More of the CMC snowfall map

 

 

[pack402]

Really need that low to get moving. Holding out hope we can exceed 12 in Omaha

[Geos]

Low near Norman, OK.