westcoastexpat Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 The NAM and GFS have (surprisingly) done better than the Euro and GEM this winter in terms of long range patterns, so I would put more stock in those models right now in terms of what to expect.Anything more than 250 hours out I wouldn't really bother with (personally), although it makes for something worth talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Monty67 Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 The NAM and GFS have (surprisingly) done better than the Euro and GEM this winter in terms of long range patterns, so I would put more stock in those models right now in terms of what to expect. Anything more than 250 hours out I wouldn't really bother with (personally), although it makes for something worth talking about. Huh, am I missing something. When did the NAM become a long range model? Personally, I would take the Euro over the GFS operational at hour 240 all day, every day. The ensembles are probably somewhat comparable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Ugh, I can't get on the retrogression train that depends on exact placement of a cut off low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Getting better... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 The models were showing a nice trend of possible retrogression toward the end of the month yesterday. That's all dissolved in the last few runs, though. A shame.I guess you missed this on the 6Z. Looks like retrogression to me. Weak but nevertheless... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 The NAM and GFS have (surprisingly) done better than the Euro and GEM this winter in terms of long range patterns, so I would put more stock in those models right now in terms of what to expect.Anything more than 250 hours out I wouldn't really bother with (personally), although it makes for something worth talking about.The NAM is a short range mesoscale model. It is a piece of crap, especially in the PNW. As for the rest of your argument, it's usually good to provide a source for this type of stuff. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Getting better... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gifAleutian low. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 The NAM is a short range mesoscale model. It is a piece of crap, especially in the PNW. As for the rest of your argument, it's usually good to provide a source for this type of stuff. For clarification, I meant the end of the range for the NAM, and the long range for the GFS up until 250 hours. It's difficult to source the accuracy of a model over a long period of time. It's just something you pick up on. The Euro has been pretty awful this winter. It jumps around from run to run and many storm tracks have been totally blown, particularly in the midwest. The GFS has been very good this winter, and the NAM has also been quite good considering it is my least favorite model by far, it has nailed some storm tracks better than the Euro has lately. They have done quite a bit of tweaking on the Euro which has resulted in more inaccuracy in the medium range from what I've seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 +30 F departures (temp anomaly) expected for Whitehorse, Yukon this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Getting better... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gifBaby Steps. The GFS is showing some hope. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 I'm making my call..the way things are looking now, I think the upwelling wave breakers will lead to a full-on PV split sometime in February. Until then, most of the cold anomalies will be focused east of the Rockies. After the PV breaks down, things will probably start to shift..in what direction, we won't know until we find out where the MJO will ignite in response to the cooling of the equatorial stratosphere. We should see a legit -NAO develop for the first time, so there probably won't be much in the way of SE ridging. But there probably will be a STJ and perhaps some drought relief for the SW US. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Just IMO, our community is not nearly large enough to warrant all of these subforums. It hinders forum-wide communication, and frankly I find it ridiculous. There's a reason AmericanWx got so big. When they started up eastern, they did not have regional subforums dividing the board..rather they just had a thread for each region, on one forum, so the community all together. Readers could easily jump from thread to thread, and interact with more members. I think the current setup is dumb. Just my three cents. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Up by the Portland airport for a conference today. Looks like the sun is out! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Currently 61 at Newport. 34 at Eugene! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looking like things want to start to retrograde at hour 240 on the 18z GFS Nope but full blown retrogression establishing at hour 264 and the rest of run gets epic... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looking like things want to start to retrograde at hour 240 on the 18z GFS Screen Shot 2014-01-16 at 2.45.06 PM.png Nope but full blown retrogression establishing at hour 264 and the rest of run gets epic... Hmmm, Nope not doing anything for me NEXT!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Hmmm, Nope not doing anything for me NEXT!!!Oh come on! Have some fun and bite a little!! It is the best run we have seen in weeks!!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Some of your posts would fit better in a mid-range forecast subforum. Your post about the PV split in February is an example.That makes zero sense, aspects of it are being modeled, and it has direct implications for the PNW. People talk long range here all the time. Should there be a 'model analysis' subforum? How about an ENSO subforum? An observations subforum? So silly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 I would be happy with the 18Z GFS in the long range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Oh come on! Have some fun and bite a little!! I did bite dude for all of 7 seconds 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 Not to get to hyper about the 18z but it is honestly the best run for some time and continues a trend the models have hinted at for some time. This, along with other Meteorological forcing factors (i.e. SOI and others) make the outcome possible. The key here is the consistency shown for retrogression but specific details will be a mess for a while. Yes, it is still a long ways out but encouraging and a somewhat consistent large scale pattern the GFS as been showing for a number of runs now. Hold onto your hats folks I think things are going to get interesting. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 If 00z follows suit I might bite a tad, but not yet that would be fruitless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's nice to look at. I suppose if you're going to get there(to a major pattern change and chances of cold/snow) you do have to start somewhere. Who knows this could be step 1 in that process. We won't know that for several days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's nice to look at. I suppose if you're going to get there(to a major pattern change and chances of cold/snow) you do have to start somewhere. Who knows this could be step 1 in that process. We won't know that for several days.Yeah, it has to start somewhere and there is enough stacked in our favor that is not completely unrealistic... In the end this could all mean squat. I just want Gorton the Fisherman to make appearance if this comes to reality. *hint hint* How much you want to make a bet there will be just a few more people paying attention to tonights 00z GFS and the Euro 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 How much you want to make a bet there will be just a few more people tonight paying attention to tonights 00z GFS and the EuroAbout as much as the 49'ers winning on Sunday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhill Posted January 16, 2014 Report Share Posted January 16, 2014 It's nice to look at. I suppose if you're going to get there(to a major pattern change and chances of cold/snow) you do have to start somewhere. Who knows this could be step 1 in that process. We won't know that for several days.Any ensemble support...anywhere other than the 1 outlier member? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 That makes zero sense, aspects of it are being modeled, and it has direct implications for the PNW. People talk long range here all the time. Should there be a 'model analysis' subforum? How about an ENSO subforum? An observations subforum? So silly.I agree with your 3 cents. I was hoping we’d start from scratch on this forum, and maybe have a separate place for the history log of westernusawx. 18z is believable in my opinion. Not saying it’s going to catch on in future runs, but the sequence given some of the other signals turning in our favor would make sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I agree with your 3 cents. I was hoping we’d start from scratch on this forum, and maybe have a separate place for the history log of westernusawx. 18z is believable in my opinion. Not saying it’s going to catch on in future runs, but the sequence given some of the other signals turning in our favor would make sense. Yep, I share this sentiment exactly... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Getting better... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011612!!chart.gif That is ridiculously cold. Sub 480dm thicknesses in the midwest. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 17, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 That is ridiculously cold. Sub 480dm thicknesses in the midwest. Yes... for them. I meant getting better (i.e. closer) for us. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yes... for them. I meant getting better (i.e. closer) for us. I get that. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 If 00z follows suit I might bite a tad, but not yet that would be fruitless. Please keep us posted! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 In all seriousness, seeing no rain for the rest of the month would put this winter into a pretty incredible standing historically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 I love Dewey's pic! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 18z Ensembles improved a bit. More chilly members at least. 00z GFS in 3 1/2 hours00z ECMWF in 6 hours 22 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Long-range: http://opensnow.com/uploads/Tahoe/2013/09/wk3.wk4_20140114.NA.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/MRF_12z/f384.gif I only wish this kept up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 Looks like things are starting to move in the right direction.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 That is ridiculously cold. Sub 480dm thicknesses in the midwest. It will suck. I'm not looking forward to it. The continental cold really isn't that bad until the winds kick in. It was below -5F for most of the middle of the week last week here but I could barely tell with the calm winds. Of course, once you take your gloves off and your hands start to feel pain, you know it's cold... but I've never felt as cold out East as I do out west. The humid cold is just bone chilling. You just shiver in the dampness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's nearly 400 hours out, but the GFS shows a subfreezing day in the long long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2014 Report Share Posted January 17, 2014 It will suck. I'm not looking forward to it. The continental cold really isn't that bad until the winds kick in. It was below -5F for most of the middle of the week last week here but I could barely tell with the calm winds. Of course, once you take your gloves off and your hands start to feel pain, you know it's cold... but I've never felt as cold out East as I do out west. The humid cold is just bone chilling. You just shiver in the dampness. I thought you were in South Surrey, BC? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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