Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 There are TWO clippers now? Nice Yep. GEM, GFS, and it looks like the NAM have them both. First wave. Both waves. Important note - second wave turned the winds off the lake with good delta T values in NE IL, SE WI for a time. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Yeah -- the Euro is craptastic that it doesn't get posted till this late hour-- nice clipper for Ia though early next week. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ya, Euro seems to be the weakest link with this one. NAM is also sorta trend weaker. 06z GFS looks pretty healthy but I'm not expecting more than 2-4" with the first wave. As I write this, 12z GFS coming in similar to the 12z NAM. I think parts of SD/S MN/IA will end up getting the best totals from this system. Certainly weakens as it heads east but still enough to produce some advisory snows over here which would be a top 2 snowfall for the city of Chicago this winter. That is saying something for how this Winter has been in the city proper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GFS closer up Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 We can forget about wave 2 coming remotely close to anyone here it looks like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 If ORD can score 4-5" from this that would be bonus snow. This should be a decent event if it holds together. Hoping for a positive outcome from this system. Glad its coming during the day and on the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 4-7 here GFS When will this be sampled? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 4-7 here GFS When will this be sampled?12z runs tomorrow I believe. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 4-7 here GFS When will this be sampled?Actually, the energy is coming onshore near British Columbia. Tonight's 00z runs should be fully sampled. However, I've seen models change once the energy skirts the Rockies which will probably be by midday Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 ok Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z GGEM...fluff up those totals 15:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think the EURO is playing catch up as usual. GFS is really holding pretty steady. It came north some, but now it's settling back to where it was. Both waves. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS - first wave. Both waves. I think it would be a good idea to just extend the thread date one more day to include both waves. I'll let the thread owner decide that though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 GEFS - first wave. Both waves. I think it would be a good idea to just extend the thread date one more day to include both waves. I'll let the thread owner decide that though.Go ahead Geo's...makes sense...also, you can add the word "Day" after President's...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z Euro from both waves...SD may get hit hard...parts of IA do well and along the Mississippi River...of note, Euro is getting a bit wetter each run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ya, Euro seems to be the weakest link with this one. NAM is also sorta trend weaker. 06z GFS looks pretty healthy but I'm not expecting more than 2-4" with the first wave. As I write this, 12z GFS coming in similar to the 12z NAM. I think parts of SD/S MN/IA will end up getting the best totals from this system. Certainly weakens as it heads east but still enough to produce some advisory snows over here which would be a top 2 snowfall for the city of Chicago this winter. That is saying something for how this Winter has been in the city proper. yes it would be nice. this is my total for the year so far. arboretum is 2 min from me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 yes it would be nice. this is my total for the year so far. arboretum is 2 min from me.That is pretty sad! Man, I feel for you...seems like everyone south of I-80 this season has been stiffed so far. Maybe things change later this month into March, but by then, you don't really enjoy the snow sticking around with the higher sun angle, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 yes it would be nice. this is my total for the year so far. arboretum is 2 min from me. You only had 40" for the winter of 2007-2008! That doesn't seem right. I think all areas north of I-80 had at least 50" that winter. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z Euro from both waves...SD may get hit hard...parts of IA do well and along the Mississippi River...of note, Euro is getting a bit wetter each run.I just do not like this model and I really don't trust it no matter what it is showing. Always seems to be playing catch-up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gotta like the trends here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I dont think a full sample takes place until 12z tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know I keep harping on this but look at that EC High Pressure. How in the heck is that (L) gonna ride right into this and ride up the spine of the Apps. I still believe this will be west of where it is being modeled especially if we have a phased system which as of now is not being advertised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know I keep harping on this but look at that EC High Pressure. How in the heck is that (L) gonna ride right into this and ride up the spine of the Apps. I still believe this will be west of where it is being modeled especially if we have a phased system which as of now is not being advertised.Euro phases it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know I keep harping on this but look at that EC High Pressure. How in the heck is that (L) gonna ride right into this and ride up the spine of the Apps. I still believe this will be west of where it is being modeled especially if we have a phased system which as of now is not being advertised.If the high sticks around longer it probably ends up further southeast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro phases itHave not seen any Euro maps but it was be a late phase? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Have not seen any Euro maps but it was be a late phase?somewhere south of DC I believe. That low is not gonna do anything to get chicago anywhere near the game on the main storm. Ohio maybe sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 You only had 40" for the winter of 2007-2008! That doesn't seem right. I think all areas north of I-80 had at least 50" that winter.this is only set to current date today, not whole season. so as of this point in the season 07/08 we had 40" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 somewhere south of DC I believe. That low is not gonna do anything to get chicago anywhere near the game on the main storm. Ohio maybe sureWas not thinking about mby only trying to figure out why/how is this going where it is currently being modeled. I can still see Indiana and parts of Michigan seeing something out of this only if it heads farther NW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Was not thinking about mby only trying to figure out why/how is this going where it is currently being modeled.The airmass is cold in the northeast prior to event but there is nothing to stop it from rushing out of there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 this is only set to current date today, not whole season. so as of this point in the season 07/08 we had 40" O ok. I missed that. I think I was around 65" by this time that winter. It was crazy.You should be good to go with plowing in about 48 hours. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 hopefully the 18z NAM is drunk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I will take an intoxicated NAM!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I will take an intoxicated NAM!!Lol. Yep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Weaker aloft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM is playing catch up like the EURO is. These Pacific systems are laden with moisture and the high should give way enough like the GEM and GFS is showing. I like 2-4" for SE MN for Gosaints. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Weaker compared to 12z it went the other way. Doesnt matter though I would even consider buying anything the NAM said until full sampling takes place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'll take the NAM still has me in the 4-7 range looking to be a pretty safe bet here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'll take the NAM still has me in the 4-7 range looking to be a pretty safe bet here.Thought you threw in the towel? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 12z FIM9 14-km... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Heck yeah - go FIM! So how accurate is the FIM9? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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