Niko Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Early call, but indications are that heaviest snowfall will be centered in central Michigan/westward where it stays all snow. Anything east from that is snow to rain and back to heavy snow with some accumulations. Wind will be a factor too with this storm. Late Wednesday night into Thursday is when SEMI will get the brunt of the snow and wind and moderate accumulations. Nevertheless, it will be fun tracking this storm over the next couple of days. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 GEOS posted: "Looks like a snowstorm for somewhere in the Great Lakes. Right now Michigan is in the prime spot." About time! haha, all in good j/k "..Ground Control to Major Tom.., we have our storm, repeat, we have our storm..please stay in AZ you apparently scare away monsters!" 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 GEOS posted: "Looks like a snowstorm for somewhere in the Great Lakes. Right now Michigan is in the prime spot." About time! haha, all in good j/k "..Ground Control to Major Tom.., we have our storm, repeat, we have our storm..please stay in AZ you apparently scare away monsters!" Hahaha...that's to funny...I'll do my best to give your area a big storm buddy... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 18z GFS nearly identical track and a little stronger this run...takes it through NW OH...it bombs out as it tracks east of DTW into Ontario... not alot of snow on the NW side though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Western MI I think will get slammed. GFS/EURO blend sounds good. From LOT SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS SUCH AS THE ONE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK TEND TOBE MOISTURE LADEN...AND WITH THIS ONE LOOKING TO BE ABLE TO TAPINTO GULF MOISTURE...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM ASWELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THISCOULD PLACE THE CHICAGO REGION IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVYSNOWFALL...AND POTENTIAL VERY STRONG WINDS AS WELL GIVEN APOTENTIAL SUB 990 MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS WERE TO ALLCOME TOGETHER...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY SNOW INCOMBINATION WITH HIGH WINDS AND HENCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOWAND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ONWEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE PRESENT TIME I HAVE REMAINEDFAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERINGPORTIONS OF MY SOUTHEAST COULD HAVE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES ONWEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY IFTHE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS MORE NORTHWEST TRACK. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 At 10:1. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Hahaha...that's to funny...I'll do my best to give your area a big storm buddy... Thanks man! DEGEX showing mby the "Purple Love" - if only that model had one single clown map that scored a bullseye, pls let it be this one: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Skilling's first glance... http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/mid-week-winter-storm-potential-being-monitored-in-sections-of-the-nations-mid-section-not-yet-a-slam-dunk-but-certainly-the-subject-of-scrutiny-by-forecasters-here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2016 Report Share Posted February 21, 2016 Almost all 18z GEFS showing sub 990's as the storm cuts up through OH...many low 980's...trends are in favor of an all-out bomb near the Lakes. This strong of a storm system should generate it's own cold air. Would imagine seeing more snow than the GFS is currently showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Almost all 18z GEFS showing sub 990's as the storm cuts up through OH...many low 980's...trends are in favor of an all-out bomb near the Lakes. This strong of a storm system should generate it's own cold air. Would imagine seeing more snow than the GFS is currently showing. Guess it's not impossible to get that strong of a LP without snow, just go back to Oct of 2011 (I think) when that freakish 981mb low spun up in NWOH and we got over an inch of wind-driven rain. Having said that, this IS February and the dynamic cooling should do the trick. I think GEOS had a skew-T showing the marginal temps layer was fairly shallow too. Any chance this slows down just enough to get the good rates going about 1/2 a state south of current maps? That'd be about perfect me thinks. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadobrah89 Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 These models are all over the place. Gfs is showing further east and the euro and nam are showing it more northwest. But the nws has issued a huge swath of a 10% chance of 4+ inches even further west. The forecasts are changing every 4 hours with this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 This is looking like a beast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlp Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 MKX'S take on the potential storm http://www.weather.gov/mkx/winterstorm-022416 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 SREF likes the west models. 6" for a mean here part way through the event. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nam coming in north it looks like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 This is looking like a beast. Pure weather porn. Lol. NAM slowed down also. Ozarks look to get pounded by wet snow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Down to 986 in W TN at hr 54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Saaaawing and a miss. Enjoy this one MI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 About the same spot as the 18z run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Saaaawing and a miss. Enjoy this one MI. Gladly will, thx Madtown. Been waiting a long time for the ghost of '67-78 hybrid to visit us.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Gladly will, thx Madtown. Been waiting a long time for the ghost of '67-78 hybrid to visit us.. Nothing like celebrating victory early Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Gladly will, thx Madtown. Been waiting a long time for the ghost of '67-78 hybrid to visit us.. I hope this misses you so bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 LOL dont be poor sports. You guys got 28-December and GHD-3 while mby got "jack" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 GFS this run has Michigan written all over it. Through 78 hours. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 LOL dont be poor sports. You guys got 28-December and GHD-3 while mby got "jack"Ok? Don't be celebrating early when it's not even sampled yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Ok? Don't be celebrating early when it's not even sampled yet Nobody's celebrating early. He said "enjoy Michigan" and I said thanks, I will. He coulda just not even mentioned us over here. I woulda been fine with that. Now back to the (potential) storm.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nobody's celebrating early. He said "enjoy Michigan" and I said thanks, I will. He coulda just not even mentioned us over here. I woulda been fine with that. Now back to the (potential) storm..Enjoy your rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nobody's celebrating early. He said "enjoy Michigan" and I said thanks, I will. He coulda just not even mentioned us over here. I woulda been fine with that. Now back to the (potential) storm..You said more than that but ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 LOL dont be poor sports. You guys got 28-December and GHD-3 while mby got "jack" Yeah, that's true for Money. In my backyard I've had one storm over 4" basically, that December 28th storm with between 6-8", so it's been a frustrating one here for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 GEM, coming west little bit little. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.Here is what the forecast models are pumping out for snow totals across the Chicago area on Wednesday-Thursday. The NAM. GFS and ECMWF models are all in agreement with 4-7" of snow, BUT that will likely change and go up or down because the track is not set and temperatures will play a big role in snow amounts. At this point the heaviest snow looks to be downstate and in NW Indiana where I have seen some models depicting 12"-16". The lightest amounts will be across Chicago's North and NW suburbs. There may also be lake enhancement for areas along the lake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 please dont get me excited about another possible storm. lol. its been such a rough winter already. kinda ready for spring. took the spotter class last week. but either way i would love to get some more snow. money has been slow this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 please dont get me excited about another possible storm. lol. its been such a rough winter already. kinda ready for spring. took the spotter class last week. but either way i would love to get some more snow. money has been slow this winter. Hey - it could end up being a big pay day for you! 48 hours. EURO is stronger by 10 mb in LA at this time. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Taking a track similar to the last GFS run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Looks like a STL/just south of there to central MI snowstorm on the EURO. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 please dont get me excited about another possible storm. lol. its been such a rough winter already. kinda ready for spring. took the spotter class last week. but either way i would love to get some more snow. money has been slow this winter.The models have shifted NW as we get closer all winter, so I'm holding out hope for a 6-8" storm to close out the season. I could sure use the boost in plowing income to smooth the transition into landscaping season. I've also taken the spotters class before, love watching the severe weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 Detroit for the win?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2016 Report Share Posted February 22, 2016 00z Para is a bit NW of the Euro Op...00z EPS showing some decent clustering of its members and taking a track up through the OH River...also NW of the Operational. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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