October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

With the playbook null and avoid, what weather pattern/change would be the Flea Flicker?

6z GFS in 3 hours 25 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS a slight glimmery glimmer of a hinty hint for backdoor cool air. Some cooler air banks up against the Rockies. Grasping at a lot more than straws.

[SouthHillFrosty]

When was the latest “first day of snow” in the Cascades? I wonder if we track that 

Edited October 4, 2022 by SouthHillFrosty

[TacomaWx]

Kolumbia bazin Kold Pool. 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t think I ever really weenie or downvote you, or many others on here. Only those who deserve it.

This is patently false.  But it is nice that you have to let everyone know how annoyed you are every day... forever.   Might be a "you problem".   

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

When was the latest “first day of snow” in the Cascades? I wonder if we track that 

I remember 2008 was abysmal through early December.  Then it suddenly wasn't.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF is trying to get there. Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ya gotta believe! C'MON!!!!

ECMWF is back to showing a decent rain event for next Monday.  

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is patently false.  But it is nice that you have to let everyone know how annoyed you are every day... forever.   Might be a "you problem".   

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8  PLEASE!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

I agree.  

[Gradient Keeper]

[TT-SEA]

And just like that... the ECMWF shows early snow for the Cascades and snow for Kayla heading for Jared early next week 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And just like that... the ECMWF shows early snow for the Cascades and snow for Kayla heading for Jared early next week 

I REALLY hope the EPS agrees, or to at least see ~40% of members showing this possibility.

[Deweydog]

Jacket weather!

[RentonHill]

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows full sun with highs barely getting to 60 by next Wednesday and Thursday.

[Gradient Keeper]

I have a feeling the EURO is picking up on something and I foresee a major change within 10 days now!

[Gradient Keeper]

Like I said, ya gotta believe! BUT if you don't believe it won't happen, so do it! C'MON!!!!

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 43 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Night shift before Halloween?

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Night shift before Halloween?

 Night shift!!!!

 

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8  PLEASE!

I was gonna say....Wow!  Probably a rogue run, but impressive.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS running yet? I NEED to see Day 5-10!

[snow_wizard]

This ECMWF run is certainly very 1916ish.  That was the driest La Nina October on record and one of the coldest.  Obviously one of the coldest Octobers is probably already off the table with this start.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This ECMWF run is certainly very 1916ish.  That was the driest La Nina October on record and one of the coldest.  Obviously one of the coldest Octobers is probably already off the table with this start.

Not this year it isn't! I wouldn't rule out anything.

[snow_wizard]

Hmmm.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Not this year it isn't! I wouldn't rule out anything.

True dat.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Hmmm.

Diggggggggg! Diggggggggggggggggg! C'MON!!!!

[snow_wizard]

The control is all over the colder setup and the mean has certainly moved that way.

[snow_wizard]

Control.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Control.

Quite similar to the Op. Here we go! Be prepared the EURO will lead the way!

[snow_wizard]

Change from 12z on the mean.

[TT-SEA]

EPS trended in the same direction...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

How nice is it to finally see some real potential with the op and eps. This looks legit. Finally. I showed up on the right night!

[TT-SEA]

GEFS looks about the same as the EPS...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

That's it for me. Have a good night

00z GFS in 20 hours 9 minutes

[Cloud]

I wish to unsee the 00z GFS run. 

[ShawniganLake]

Weather summary
for British Columbia
issued by Environment Canada
at 5:38 p.m. PDT Monday 3 October 2022.

Discussion.

A ridge of high pressure brought another warm autumn day. 

The following areas set a daily maximum temperature record on 
October 3, 2022: 

Abbotsford Area (Abbotsford A) 
Preliminary new record of 28.0 
Old record of 26.7 set in 1980 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Agassiz Area (Agassiz RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 27.7 
Old record of 26.7 set in 1932 
Records in this area have been kept since 1889 

Cache Creek Area (Ashcroft) 
Preliminary new record of 26.3 
Old record of 25.6 set in 1947 
Records in this area have been kept since 1944 

Clinton Area (Clinton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 23.9 
Old record of 23.7 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1974 

Hope Area (Hope Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 27.5 
Old record of 27.2 set in 1952 
Records in this area have been kept since 1936 

Kelowna Area (Kelowna UBCO) 
Preliminary new record of 25.4 
Old record of 25.0 set in 1932 
Records in this area have been kept since 1899 

Lytton Area (Lytton RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 27.3 
Old record of 26.5 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1921 

Malahat Area (Malahat) 
Preliminary new record of 24.6 
Old record of 19.9 set in 2001 
Records in this area have been kept since 1986 

Nakusp Area (Nakusp CS) 
Preliminary new record of 22.0 
Old record of 20.8 set in 2021 
Records in this area have been kept since 1966 

Pemberton Area (Pemberton Airport CS) 
Preliminary new record of 27.5 
Old record of 27.0 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1908 

Pitt Meadows Area (Pitt Meadows CS) 
Preliminary new record of 27.6 
Old record of 26.9 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1874 

Powell River Area (Powell River) 
Preliminary new record of 22.6 
Old record of 22.2 set in 1970 
Records in this area have been kept since 1924 

Puntzi Mountain Area (Puntzi Mountain (AUT)) 
Preliminary new record of 27.3 
Old record of 26.6 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1959 

Sechelt Area (Sechelt Aut) 
Preliminary new record of 24.6 
Old record of 21.5 set in 1993 
Records in this area have been kept since 1956 

Squamish Area (Squamish Airport) 
Preliminary new record of 27.2 
Old record of 23.7 set in 2015 
Records in this area have been kept since 1960 

Tatlayoko Lake Area (Tatlayoko Lake RCS) 
Preliminary new record of 26.8 
Old record of 26.0 set in 2003 
Records in this area have been kept since 1930 

[TT-SEA]

Full EPS run...