October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Not really a fan favorite around here but we are pulling some remarkable weather around here for this time of the year. We haven't had an 80F weather in decades and now pulled out 75+F weather for the first time ever in October. Love it or hate it, I think you gotta appreciate this anomalous stretch. We should be in the mid-60s for this time of year, so this is quite an extreme we're dealing with. 

Yeah this doesn’t really bother me. It is what it is, and low 80s is pretty pleasant. Especially with the lower sun angles. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Put it this way. The run of weather we are experiencing is even more historic than Lizzo playing a 200 year old flute in her underwear! Good azzz hell. 

[LowerGarfield]

64F currently. Today seemed to top out around 76F or so.

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

This winter is going to be WILD! The festivities will begin the first week of November. Flooding rains, then a major arctic event, then a windstorm for the ages! Christmas will be sunny with highs around 50. January will be epic, then early spring by the second week of February. 

What will the forecast be at your house, Moss?

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

My experience has been the sound of rumbling in the distance and then it starts shaking.   But I have only experienced 3 or 4 that I distinctly remember.  The biggest being the Northridge quake in 1994 which happened at 4:30 a.m. and was my first.   I could hear that one coming and it woke me up about 1/2 a second before it literally shook us out of bed.   I was sure it was centered in San Diego based on the intense shaking and was surprised to find out it was 150 miles away.

As someone who lived 5 mins walk to a active and major fault line in Norcal which hasn't had a big quake in over 160 years, yes thats right. Sometimes there are thrusts you feel right away but often you'll hear a rumble first. Usually for the smaller ones you might not realize it was a qauke but hear or feel it.

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

What will the forecast be at your house, Moss?

 

[snow_wizard]

Mind blowingly awful GFS run.

[Meatyorologist]

Oh yeesh Jim was not kidding...  really drop dead abysmal 00z in the works here

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah this doesn’t really bother me. It is what it is, and low 80s is pretty pleasant. Especially with the lower sun angles. 

I was thinking today...the normals fall so quickly this time of year that these temps don't feel all that crazy, because what we are seeing was normal not too many weeks back.

[snow_wizard]

51 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

As someone who lived 5 mins walk to a active and major fault line in Norcal which hasn't had a big quake in over 160 years, yes thats right. Sometimes there are thrusts you feel right away but often you'll hear a rumble first. Usually for the smaller ones you might not realize it was a qauke but hear or feel it.

There is actually a major fault that runs right about where I-90 is.  It runs from under Puget Sound to North Bend or so.  That's the fault they think could bring a very dangerous shallow quake to Seattle.  The scary thing is the period of time since the last quake is like 3 times longer than the average on that fault.

[joelgombiner]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

There is actually a major fault that runs right about where I-90 is.  It runs from under Puget Sound to North Bend or so.  That's the fault they think could bring a very dangerous shallow quake to Seattle.  The scary thing is the period of time since the last quake is like 3 times longer than the average on that fault.

There was a quake about 1,000 years ago on the Seattle fault, and another one much earlier, maybe 10,000 years ago... where are you getting the 3 times number? 

[snow_wizard]

This MJO is supposed to really get going here in the next 5 days or so.  Once it's going strong hopefully the models will be able to latch onto it and give some idea of when this will finally end.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

There was a quake about 1,000 years ago on the Seattle fault, and another one much earlier, maybe 10,000 years ago... where are you getting the 3 times number? 

There have been way more quakes than that.  I'll have to find it.

[joelgombiner]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Mind blowingly awful GFS run.

Absolutely terrible. Models 0.01" of rain over the next 16 days at SEA, all on October 19. Scary. 

[joelgombiner]

This has been a fantastic fall for growing. Figs finally ripening, tomatoes getting sweet, cucumbers into October... This is nature reimbursing us for for an abnormally cold and wet June. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

You may want to grab a barf bag for this one. You've been warned.

No changes. Ridge of high pressure and above normal temperatures dominates. As others have stated I do think any pattern change will come with retrogression with the ridge axis shifting offshore and cold trough diving south through BC. I think that's the most practical way to see a sharp cool down and maybe precip. Maybe. I don't know. I don't know anything! I'm just a big ole dummy!

[joelgombiner]

But mushroom season is looking weak. We should be getting porcinis and chanterelles now, but I doubt there's much of anything with these pitiful rainfall totals. 

[Phil]

The EPS weekly control run has basically no snowfall in the WA/OR Cascades through Nov 17th.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Absolutely terrible. Models 0.01" of rain over the next 16 days at SEA, all on October 19. Scary. 

This is getting downright astonishing.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly

You may want to grab a barf bag for this one. You've been warned.

No changes. Ridge of high pressure and above normal temperatures dominates. As others have stated I do think any pattern change will come with retrogression with the ridge axis shifting offshore and cold trough diving south through BC. I think that's the most practical way to see a sharp cool down and maybe precip. Maybe. I don't know. I don't know anything! I'm just a big ole dummy!

At least we are getting to where inversions can start to become a factor now.  It's also barely worth mentioning the GEM hints at the beginning of a retrogression.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A watched pot never boils. JIM 

[snow_wizard]

0.39" here in the last 107 days. 

[Deweydog]

00z hints at some ridging in clown range…

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A watched pot never boils. JIM 

As if any of us can keep from watching it.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A watched pot never boils. JIM 

This is patently false.

[Gradient Keeper]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A watched pot never boils. JIM 

Eventually the liquid, soup, stew, pasta, or water evaporates and you're left with the contents burning, the red hot burner beginning to melt the pot causing a horrific kitchen fire that quickly spreads to the remainder of the home killing everything in its path.

00z ECMWF in 24 minutes

[joelgombiner]

Soil moisture anomalies, October 2, 2022. Dry country. 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, joelgombiner said:

Soil moisture anomalies, October 2, 2022. Dry country. 

Can you pull up the same but for 1936? Would love to see a comparison.

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Can you pull up the same but for 1936? Would love to see a comparison.

It seems to be only calculated for the last year or so: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/US_Soil-Moisture-Monthly.php

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Can you pull up the same but for 1936? Would love to see a comparison.

1936 actually has some similarities to this year.  I would love to see a 1936-37 type winter.  Plenty of snow and cold with almost none of the negative crap normally seen before and after a good bout of winter.

[Meatyorologist]

A part of me is almost fascinated, really

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Soil moisture anomalies, October 2, 2022. Dry country. 

Average here. Which makes sense. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

A part of me is almost fascinated, really

Yeah it’s uncharted waters. Throw out the playbook! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How many cliches will I use before it rains again?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How many cliches will I use before it rains again?

I'm going with 8. The Vegas over/under is 5.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of weird that Western WA is the driest place in the West now (by some measures).  The one area that totally escaped the dryness in recent years.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah it’s uncharted waters. Throw out the playbook! 

The playbook has been burned this year.  The one thing I'm still kind of betting on though is the propensity for reversals after long runs of abnormal weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The playbook has been burned this year.  The one thing I'm still kind of betting on though is the propensity for reversals after long runs of abnormal weather.

Would be pretty neat. 

[Gradient Keeper]

With the playbook null and avoid, what weather pattern/change would be the Flea Flicker?

6z GFS in 3 hours 25 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

With the playbook null and avoid, what weather pattern/change would be the Flea Flicker?

6z GFS in 3 hours 25 minutes

October 17th, it will rain. MBG