October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Night shift before Halloween?

Let’s rock!!

Gonna get the night drive playlist going. I don’t give a shit if I’ll never drive again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS still mostly the same. The clipper to the east is a bit closer.

[MV_snow]

5 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

How nice is it to finally see some real potential with the op and eps. This looks legit. Finally. I showed up on the right night!

You need to be on every night for the night shift now! You’re clearly good luck.

[Meatyorologist]

Fog and drizzle this morning.

A part of me does wonder if today's highs will miss their forecasted marks today... Did not expect this robust of a marine layer. If so, there could be implications for the next week plus as the pattern stagnates. May not torch so hard as previously thought.

[Meatyorologist]

Still will be dry though!

But heat and low humidity exacerbate evaporation. Coolier, foggier weather will help keep drought and fire concerns relatively at bay in western WA. The fall rains will return.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fog and drizzle this morning.

A part of me does wonder if today's highs will miss their forecasted marks today... Did not expect this robust of a marine layer. If so, there could be implications for the next week plus as the pattern stagnates. May not torch so hard as previously thought.

ECMWF has been showing the marine layer most solid this morning... temps should be 3-5 degrees cooler today.    Its still clear out here but the clouds might hang on over the Seattle are until early afternoon.    

[Tyler Mode]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fog and drizzle this morning.

A part of me does wonder if today's highs will miss their forecasted marks today... Did not expect this robust of a marine layer. If so, there could be implications for the next week plus as the pattern stagnates. May not torch so hard as previously thought.

Thought the same yesterday morning at 10 AM.  Still cloudy, by 1030 it was full sunshine.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Tyler Mode said:

Thought the same yesterday morning at 10 AM.  Still cloudy, by 1030 it was full sunshine.

It will be much slower today.   

[Jakewestsalem]

2nd straight day of fog in the morning in Stayton. Looks like October as the light increases. Only difference is it being 15f too warm.

Cleared out around 2pm yesterday and was left with that wonderful sunlight that only lower sun angles can provide. Makes 80f feel like there is a slight "chill" in the air.

[Tyler Mode]

9 minutes ago, Jakewestsalem said:

2nd straight day of fog in the morning in Stayton. Looks like October as the light increases. Only difference is it being 15f too warm.

Cleared out around 2pm yesterday and was left with that wonderful sunlight that only lower sun angles can provide. Makes 80f feel like there is a slight "chill" in the air.

Just did the same thing, and thought the same.  It's foggy, but too warm!  54 here.

[Phishy Wx]

17 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Me too.    Could not care less about forest fungus.  

They're important to the ecosystem Mr. ME ME ME

[High Desert Mat?]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fog and drizzle this morning.

A part of me does wonder if today's highs will miss their forecasted marks today... Did not expect this robust of a marine layer. If so, there could be implications for the next week plus as the pattern stagnates. May not torch so hard as previously thought.

That a UFO?

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

They're important to the ecosystem Mr. ME ME ME

Sure... as are lots of things.  I am just not personally concerned about gathering fungus in the forest.   

[High Desert Mat?]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Sure... as are lots of things.  I am just not personally concerned about gathering fungus in the forest.   

Few are. 

[Randyc321]

16 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

or Richard for that matter. Is he still around?

00z GFS in 5 hours 21 minutes

If Richard posts, somebody has to translate. 

[Phishy Wx]

would like this for January

 

 

 

[MossMan]

Foggy. Low of 48. Currently 49. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

11 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It depends on how far from the epicenter you are. If there is some distance, then yes, that is the case. What you have felt is the p-waves (compressional), which travel faster than the s-waves (transverse). The latter carry most of the energy, so the former can serve as a warning. I have felt the same thing (When it happened, I spent a few seconds wondering “was that a p-wave?” before I found out the answer was YES.)

When the Nisqually quake hit, we were living in the Willamette Valley, and my wife and I worked about a mile from each other in Corvallis.  I worked in a building that was on a ground level concrete foundation, and my wife worked at the OSU Credit Union there on 9th and Spruce, which had 1 level under ground.  I didn't feel a thing.  My wife (who was pregnant at the time) said all of the sudden she felt really unsteady, and thought she was going to pass out.  a little more time passed and a picture started tapping on the wall by her, and she noticed people in the lobby were looking around trying to figure out what was happening.  At that point she realized it might be an earthquake but had not idea it was so far away.

 

Never felt one myself (that I remember), I lived in LA until I was 4, and we had a big one during that time period.  My mom initially thought my brothers were roughhousing until the shaking got going then went into a panic trying to round us all up (she's from Georgia and had never been in an Earthquake).  My dad (born in California) just stood by the sliding glass door watching the water slosh out of our pool.

 

 

On the weather side, the past couple of mornings have been quite foggy.  I am really over the smoke and dry weather.  My poor puppy is not going to know what to do when the rains really get going.  She was born in late April, but was never in a position where she *had* to go outside before the late spring rains stopped.  The one or 2 times we have been outside during brief showers here she look at her back very confused and bites at the air LOL

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

When the Nisqually quake hit, we were living in the Willamette Valley, and my wife and I worked about a mile from each other in Corvallis.  I worked in a building that was on a ground level concrete foundation, and my wife worked at the OSU Credit Union there on 9th and Spruce, which had 1 level under ground.  I didn't feel a thing.  My wife (who was pregnant at the time) said all of the sudden she felt really unsteady, and thought she was going to pass out.  a little more time passed and a picture started tapping on the wall by her, and she noticed people in the lobby were looking around trying to figure out what was happening.  At that point she realized it might be an earthquake but had not idea it was so far away.

 

Never felt one myself (that I remember), I lived in LA until I was 4, and we had a big one during that time period.  My mom initially thought my brothers were roughhousing until the shaking got going then went into a panic trying to round us all up (she's from Georgia and had never been in an Earthquake).  My dad (born in California) just stood by the sliding glass door watching the water slosh out of our pool.

 

 

On the weather side, the past couple of mornings have been quite foggy.  I am really over the smoke and dry weather.  My poor puppy is not going to know what to do when the rains really get going.  She was born in late April, but was never in a position where she *had* to go outside before the late spring rains stopped.  The one or 2 times we have been outside during brief showers here she look at her back very confused and bites at the air LOL

 

I was mowing #13 fairway at the golf course I worked at during the Nisqually quake so I didn’t feel anything other than the usual bouncing of the mower. Get back to the maintenance shop though and I see our full time mechanic standing outside the shop (old metal building) staring at it and smoking his cigarillo. Apparently that thing was rocking and rolling as he had a greensmower on the lift working on it. 

[YahRaEl]

54 this morning here in Belltown Seattle

[Randyc321]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is back to showing a decent rain event for next Monday.  

I cant find the emoji for Oh God, please, please let this happen.  

[Randyc321]

8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Jacket weather!

For some it appears to be straight jacket weather

[Meatyorologist]

47 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

would like this for January

 

 

 

That offshore snowfall implies an arctic connection being modeled... pretty typical -ENSO mean state, if not a bit extreme

[Omegaraptor]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF is back to showing a decent rain event for next Monday.  

Willamette River donut snake

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even some drizzle here in Salem. 

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Even some drizzle here in Salem. 

Big if true.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS does not even show the trough early next week... went the other direction compared to its 00Z and 06Z runs.

[ShawniganLake]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS does not even show the trough early next week... went the other direction compared to its 00Z and 06Z runs.

The trough is probably gonna end up too far east.  The euro loves digging those things too far SW when the pattern gets amplified. 

[Snownerd3000]

Is it sad that I was excited to see the mist/fog requiring me to use my windshield wipers this morning?

[Tyler Mode]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Is it sad that I was excited to see the mist/fog requiring me to use my windshield wipers this morning?

This year no.  Perfectly acceptable!

[Phishy Wx]

Its not coming

[RentonHill]

GEM

[Phishy Wx]

lol

[TT-SEA]

Low clouds over Puget Sound area showing no signs of eroding yet... going to be a slow burn off today.   Low clouds did not make this far east though and it's totally sunny here.   

[fubario]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Low clouds over Puget Sound area showing no signs of eroding yet... going to be a slow burn off today.   Low clouds did not make this far east though and it's totally sunny here.   

"The world is yours" , Tim

 

-Nas

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The trough is probably gonna end up too far east.  The euro loves digging those things too far SW when the pattern gets amplified. 

I think it’s equally if not more likely the GFS is too progressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stat of the day...

SLE has only had two years where September saw less than 0.50" of rain and October had under 1" of rain:

1987

2008

[Phil]

Operational GFS is an outlier from the GEFS mean.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Operational GFS is an outlier from the GEFS mean.

But the 12Z GEFS did trend farther north and east with the trough early next week compared to its 00Z run.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But the 12Z GEFS did trend farther north and east with the trough early next week compared to its 00Z run.  

My wager is still on the GFS being too progressive. Maybe the Euro was too amplified as well.