October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Kayla]

12z EPS continues to be further east with the clipper.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z EPS continues to be further east with the clipper.

but it has moved towards OP vs 00z run

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

but it has moved towards OP vs 00z run

Not sure it means anything... but the 12Z control run shifted way east compared to its 00Z run.    

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

but it has moved towards OP vs 00z run

It’s a little deeper with the trough but not further west compared to the 00z EPS. 

[TacomaWx]

@kayla do you think most of glacier would be closed when this clipper passed through? Looks like a decent snow up there just curious. 

[The Blob]

Just hit 60 here.

[Deweydog]

PDX still in the…

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

@kayla do you think most of glacier would be closed when this clipper passed through? Looks like a decent snow up there just curious. 

Normally most things close by the third week of October in Glacier but this system would probably be enough to close things a little earlier. Of course this system is still a big IF with a lot of model spread so its a bit too early to call at this point. Sounds like it could be a fun trip if things stay open though!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Normally most things close by the third week of October in Glacier but this system would probably be enough to close things a little earlier. Of course this system is still a big IF with a lot of model spread so its a bit too early to call at this point. Sounds like it could be a fun trip if things stay open though!

Yeah I’m kinda thinking things might be closed by the time I show up on the 11th if the euros right. I already see the west entrance past Apgar is closed. 

[The Blob]

I've been through every big quake in SoCal since the 1990s.

One thing I don't like about having kids is that I get earthquake sickness now. I discovered that after the 2019 Ridgecrest quake, I spent about 2 months of being perpetually dizzy. I can't drive the PIT at work sometimes because going over the dock plate triggers it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

And this is all after the hottest week ever in July, the hottest month ever in August, and the hottest September ever. The cold equivalent in the winter seems incomprehensibly ridiculously impossible. In fact, any single one of those record equivalents does.

Yeah coldest month ever seems absolutely impossible. 

[Deweydog]

The Nisqually quake is the only quake I’ve actually felt and that was in Omak. Room just started rotating in little circles. The Mt. Angel quake in 1993 woke me up at the coast but I didn’t actually feel it. It snowed less than two months before that particular quake. Hmmm…

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure it means anything... but the 12Z control run shifted way east compared to its 00Z run.    

Yeah that’s a huge red flag. When the control run and OP are in disagreement like that, the EPS mean usually ends up correct.

[Tyler Mode]

32 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I’m kinda thinking things might be closed by the time I show up on the 11th if the euros right. I already see the west entrance past Apgar is closed. 

That's for construction.  You can still access Logan Pass from the St. Mary side.  I love that park in the fall, even if it is raining and snowing.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and almost to 70 out here... but still much cooler than yesterday due to increased marine influence.

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

That's for construction.  You can still access Logan Pass from the St. Mary side.  I love that park in the fall, even if it is raining and snowing.

Yeah but I’d imagine the east entrance would be closed if that snowstorm passes through. It’d be right around the time I’m showing up there on the 11th if I go. I’m going to wait a couple days to see what the weathers looking like. Kinda thinking the backup plan might be Yellowstone. 

[RentonHill]

Lots of EPS members look like the OP or between Control and OP. A few with the Control, others that dont do squat.

[LowerGarfield]

15 hours ago, joelgombiner said:

Soil moisture anomalies, October 2, 2022. Dry country. 

I'm in the green. Don't hate.

[LowerGarfield]

Currently 79F and sunny. Not bad at all outside.

[TacomaWx]

60 and cloudy here but it’s looking like the suns going to break through soon. 

[RentonHill]

Full run

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Full run

GEFS for comparison

[Phishy Wx]

I just want to go sit outside and drink beer.  can't let this augtober go to waste

[TigerWoodsLibido]

And we have hit 70F in Springfield. Another beautiful summer day!!

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Will Portland break the 70 and above streak today? The 50 and above streak for lows will live on much longer. 

[Phishy Wx]

80 here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Will Portland break the 70 and above streak today? The 50 and above streak for lows will live on much longer. 

That's what makes this such a bitter pill to swallow for so many. If we were spitting out 81/38 days at HIO it would be a lot more FUN. 

[The Blob]

Finally hit 70

[NWbyNW]

60F today, super foggy mixed with smoke.  No sunshine today, just socked in with fog.  Smoke is helping the water vapors cling to the smoke particles and making it hard to clear up. It's been a blessing though because it was wet and made the ground, leaves, grass, everything wet. 

[TacomaWx]

66 here so 70 looks unlikely. Hazy out again. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The 18z GFS gives Portland 80 or better 12 out of the next 15 days. I don’t know if I should laugh or cry.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 18z GFS gives Portland 80 or better 12 out of the next 15 days. I don’t know if I should laugh or cry.

Won't happen... inversion season is approaching.   

[NWbyNW]

5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 18z GFS gives Portland 80 or better 12 out of the next 15 days. I don’t know if I should laugh or cry.

At this point I would be weeping and moving to Alaska. 

[Doinko]

Only 65 at PDX so far, probably won't make it to 70. 

[snow_wizard]

Much cooler day here today, and there was some pretty thick fog this morning.  Only 64 right now.

The difference between the ECMWF and GFS is the way the models handle the emergence of the MJO wave.  Once the wave is going strong the models should have a bit more an idea how things will evolve.

[YahRaEl]

AccuWeather Winter Outlook 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweather-2022-2023-us-winter-forecast/1252283

[YahRaEl]

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ChrisAmunRA said:

Snowy periods in Minnesota... really going out on a limb there!  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

Basically a conventional La Niña forecast. The rub is, I am not expecting a standard La Niña winter (we are already seeing weather that is solidly outside standard La Niña conditions).

[snow_wizard]

23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The 18z GFS gives Portland 80 or better 12 out of the next 15 days. I don’t know if I should laugh or cry.

I'd bet a $100 that won't happen.