October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Much cooler day here today, and there was some pretty thick fog this morning.  Only 64 right now.

The difference between the ECMWF and GFS is the way the models handle the emergence of the MJO wave.  Once the wave is going strong the models should have a bit more an idea how things will evolve.

I don’t think that’s it. And I wouldn’t even classify this as a bonafide MJO..more like a CCKW w/ niña background state dominating.

It is in fact phase 8-1 MJO that is associated with western troughing during the month of October. Seasonal boundary conditions dictate the spatial nature of these teleconnective relationships.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Basically a conventional La Niña forecast. The rub is, I am not expecting a standard La Niña winter (we are already seeing weather that is solidly outside standard La Niña conditions).

Yeah....a very safe cookie cutter forecast.  My money is still on this pattern flipping hard when it does though.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'd bet a $100 that won't happen.

I’m tempted to take you on, but I don’t think it will either. Regardless, fall is postponed until further notice.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I don’t think that’s it. And I wouldn’t even classify this as a bonafide MJO..more like a CCKW w/ niña background state dominating.

It is in fact phase 8-1 MJO that is associated with western troughing during the month of October. Seasonal boundary conditions dictate the spatial nature of these teleconnective relationships.

You could be right, but the ECMWF has the wave emerging in the MC while the GFS is east of that.  Could explain why the ridge sets up further east on the GFS.  Whatever you want to call it the models are going for a pretty robust wave.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I’m tempted to take you on, but I don’t think it will either. Regardless, fall is postponed until further notice.

Today pretty well showed we are in inversion season now.  Certainly cooler than what we have been seeing.

BTW....the ECMWF could be right.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'd bet a $100 that won't happen.

Pesos?

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You could be right, but the ECMWF has the wave emerging in the MC while the GFS is east of that.  Could explain why the ridge sets up further east on the GFS.  Whatever you want to call it the models are going for a pretty robust wave.

I don’t think it’s an emerging MJO wave, though? At least not a bonafide one. The -VP200 anomalies are still clearly present over the indo-pacific as a low pass feature.

This more like a wave-2, CCKW-low pass pattern as opposed to a true MJO, IMO.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think it’s an emerging MJO wave, though. At least not a bonafide one. The -VP200 anomalies are still clearly present over the indo-pacific as a low pass feature.

This more like a wave-2, CCKW-low pass pattern as opposed to a true MJO, IMO.

[NWbyNW]

This is the worst the smoke has been since the smoky days of September.  It's real gross looking out there today.  AQI is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups to moderate depending on where you are at.  

Temperature dropped to 59F.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Still 70 in North Bend... visibility is close to normal.   AQI is at 35 out here.

[TacomaWx]

67/54 today. Still pretty warm due to the overnight low. 
 Have been debating on going to several different places next week. Would really like to go to Glacier or Yellowstone…but need to see how the weathers going to be before going. Don’t mind the snow or cold but if they start closing parts of the parks down that would kill the point of going altogether. 

[Jakewestsalem]

During the Spring Break Quake of 1993 I was in San Francisco ( of all places) on a college baseball trip when I was coaching. We only had local news that had reported the main bridges in Salem had collapsed and mass destruction.

Obviously before cell phones so we were scrambling to find out what we could by using pay phones. It was very unsettling until we could confirm what had actually happened.

Imagine that today!!

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Pesos?

I have the dollar sign there.

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

I just want to go sit outside and drink beer.  can't let this augtober go to waste

Excellent idea. 

[T-Town]

The beer can post made me a Grand Master. The site is obviously quite picky about post quality when handing out achievement awards. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have the dollar sign there.

$ is both the dollar sign and the peso sign.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

52 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

67/54 today. Still pretty warm due to the overnight low. 
 Have been debating on going to several different places next week. Would really like to go to Glacier or Yellowstone…but need to see how the weathers going to be before going. Don’t mind the snow or cold but if they start closing parts of the parks down that would kill the point of going altogether. 

I visited Yellowstone in October 6 years ago. It was nice. They had received a dump of snow the week prior, but it had melted away except in the highest elevations of the park. Did get a few flurries, and it was freezing cold at night, but did just fine camping.

Despite the season, it was surprisingly crowded. At the time, Madison Campground took last-minute reservations, so called ahead the day before and secured a spot there. Was glad I did, because the “campsite full” sign was up by the time I arrived.

Still, nothing can compare to the visit in 1986 when I got to see Giantess, Castle, and Old Faithful go off simultaneously.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

25 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The beer can post made me a Grand Master. The site is obviously quite picky about post quality when handing out achievement awards. 

Welcome to the club! I achieved that rank only a week or two ago.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I visited Yellowstone in October 6 years ago. It was nice. They had received a dump of snow the week prior, but it had melted away except in the highest elevations of the park. Did get a few flurries, and it was freezing cold at night, but did just fine camping.

Despite the season, it was surprisingly crowded. At the time, Madison Campground took last-minute reservations, so called ahead the day before and secured a spot there. Was glad I did, because the “campsite full” sign was up by the time I arrived.

Still, nothing can compare to the visit in 1986 when I got to see Giantess, Castle, and Old Faithful go off simultaneously.

Yeah I still might go…if the euros right they’d get 6-12” of snow and several days below freezing like the day I show up. 

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

67/54 today. Still pretty warm due to the overnight low. 
 Have been debating on going to several different places next week. Would really like to go to Glacier or Yellowstone…but need to see how the weathers going to be before going. Don’t mind the snow or cold but if they start closing parts of the parks down that would kill the point of going altogether. 

There isn't a lot of ensemble support of a significant snowstorm or anything like that so as I've right now I would bet you would be just fine to go to either park. Just be prepared for the cold and possibly a little bit of snow.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z EPS and EPS control look to be digging a bit better than the 12z with that possible trough next week.  Looks like the digging is a tad west of the 12z.

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

$ is both the dollar sign and the peso sign.

Not very creative.

[snow_wizard]

I think we have an excellent shot at several places seeing light frost next week if the ECMWF is even close to right.

[snow_wizard]

There's a major difference between the GFS and ECMWF even at hour 90 on the 18z (the furthest the ECMWF goes on the 18z).  The massive ridge is splitting in two over AK on the ECMWF while the GFS has no split at all.  At the very least I think a compromise between the two will happen.  Hopefully a more ECMWF like solution will verify.

[T-Town]

Very calm tonight. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not very creative.

Originally used by the Spanish for their dollar, the new USA borrowed both the name dollar and the symbol.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 68 for PDX today.  The 70+ streak is over!

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 68 for PDX today.  The 70+ streak is over!

Looks like the Earth's axial tilt is finally winning the battle against the Earth's atmosphere.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like the Earth's axial tilt is finally winning the battle against the Earth's atmosphere.

Well, for one day at least. Still +2 on the day too.

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like 68 for PDX today.  The 70+ streak is over!

It was also pretty sunny after around 2, which was nice. Sunny and cool. 

[TacomaWx]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

There isn't a lot of ensemble support of a significant snowstorm or anything like that so as I've right now I would bet you would be just fine to go to either park. Just be prepared for the cold and possibly a little bit of snow.

Yeah we will see how it goes. I would love to be there when it’s snowing. Have never been to Yellowstone before would be amazing to see it. 

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah we will see how it goes. I would love to be there when it’s snowing. Have never been to Yellowstone before would be amazing to see it. 

Oh if you’ve never been then you should definitely go! If you can wait a couple more days on deciding and see how the weather will shake out it will definitely be worth it to go. Fall is a beautiful time in the park and the animals are also very active so lots to see!

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Oh if you’ve never been then you should definitely go! If you can wait a couple more days on deciding and see how the weather will shake out it will definitely be worth it to go. Fall is a beautiful time in the park and the animals are also very active so lots to see!

Yeah I haven’t decided yet…gonna wait a couple days to see how it goes. I hope it isn’t a major blizzard and it’s just a bit of snow and cold. If it’s a blizzard I’ve been looking into possibly driving down to the Oregon coast or even Lake Tahoe. Haven’t been to Tahoe either but I’m really trying to see something cool on this week of vacation time I’ve got before my new job starts. 

[Doinko]

[TacomaWx]

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice 00z GFS Op. That trough carves out pretty good. For Portland after Day 5 there are no 80s through Day 11. In fact, nothing over 74 degrees. GEFS running and hopefully it follows suit.

00z ECMWF in 55 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Oh yeah baby!  This is looking very possible now.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Nice 00z GFS Op. That trough carves out pretty good. For Portland after Day 5 there are no 80s through Day 11. In fact, nothing over 74 degrees. GEFS running and hopefully it follows suit.

00z ECMWF in 55 minutes

That has to be one of the most dramatic run to run improvements I've seen at this close of a range in quite some time.

[snow_wizard]

OMG!  Run to run change on the GEFS.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like everyone had assumed tonight's run would just more of the same crap.  Very quiet.