October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[RentonHill]

Smoke still super thick leavenwortg to Wenatchee p

[Phil]

Jim really is a jinx. Hope he never moves to the Northeast.  

[Kayla]

Operational models will come and go but ensemble models are the way to go!

[Kayla]

I was honestly never onboard with that trough digging that far west. There hasn't been any ensemble support for it. Either way, still no real change in the pattern through at least mid month it would seem.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

I was honestly never onboard with that trough digging that far west. There hasn't been any ensemble support for it. Either way, still no real change in the pattern through at least mid month it would seem.

Trough looks a bit weaker out east too. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Me. Every. Single. Time. If they are inside I get the vacuum. Thankfully we've only had small to medium sized bastards inside this Summer. A TON of those little tiny suckers. No giant house or wolf spiders since we had new screens put in the windows tightly fitting. It's really nice to be able to sleep knowing they can't crawl around the window screens anymore. I HATE SPIDERS

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 14 minutes

Ditto. Spiders in our house are executed immediately upon discovery. 

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Trough looks a bit weaker out east too. 

Yeah on the 12z EPS it's barely a trough at this point. It's now showing above average temps throughout. Of course still time for things to change again.

 

[TT-SEA]

Very slow clearing from the north today and the flow aloft appears to be from NE to SW based on the clearing pattern.   

The next 4 days should feature much less persistent low clouds as the low clouds are in the process of being scoured out along the coast now as well.   

[Phishy Wx]

back to your regularly scheduled Augtober....

[TacomaWx]

21 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah on the 12z EPS it's barely a trough at this point. It's now showing above average temps throughout. Of course still time for things to change again.

 

Dang yeah looks just like a barely noticeable system. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[snow_wizard]

Interesting visible sat pic today.  Just a big blob of low clouds sitting over the central interior of WA.  A cool 60 degrees here.

 

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Smoke still super thick leavenwortg to Wenatchee p

Smoke should clear up significantly through Chelan County on Thursday.  Just sunshine.  

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Pretty solid signal for cold in the NW.  Even stronger for the upstream GOA / Aleutian High.

[NWbyNW]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting visible sat pic today.  Just a big blob of low clouds sitting over the central interior of WA.  A cool 60 degrees here.

 

For those wanting to see it.

 

[snow_wizard]

42 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

back to your regularly scheduled Augtober....

It's going to get noticeably cool next week.

[Phishy Wx]

It's gunna start late, but it might be great?

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

For those wanting to see it.

 

The UW version is actually more clear.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Interesting visible sat pic today.  Just a big blob of low clouds sitting over the central interior of WA.  A cool 60 degrees here.

 

Thankfully much more sun the next few days.

[Omegaraptor]

Just got stuck in a construction zone for ten minutes in Corvallis.

Can we get a few weeks of October 2016 or November 2006 firehose weather to make this shitt go away?

[TT-SEA]

Distinct clearing moving into the Seattle area now... and you can tell things will improve based on what is happening along the coast which is the opposite of yesterday when it was still pushing inland during the afternoon.  

[Phil]

If we flip to -NAO in Nov/Dec as advertised by the ECMWF seasonal, it would help suppress the jet south and produce much wetter pattern across the west, especially the southwest. See the 2010/11 Niña, for reference.

Problem is the post-2013 tendency is towards +TNH/-EPO along with +NAO, which can be great for winter cold, but also keeps the southwest high and dry while producing a sharp N/S precip gradient in the PNW region. And come summer that pattern turns into a torch.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's going to get noticeably cool next week.

The EPS and GEFS show a pattern that would be warmer than today for most of next week.

[High Desert Mat?]

Give me a ‘16-‘17 winter is all I’m asking. 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty solid inversion today with lots of 70s to near 80 in mountains.

[ShawniganLake]

A very augtober like sunny and 73F here currently 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Give me a ‘16-‘17 winter is all I’m asking. 

Seeing this made me think about how similar 1916-17 was to 2016-17.  Both consistently cold winters.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

If we flip to -NAO in Nov/Dec as advertised by the ECMWF seasonal, it would help suppress the jet south and produce much wetter pattern across the west, especially the southwest. See the 2010/11 Niña, for reference.

Problem is the post-2013 tendency is towards +TNH/-EPO along with +NAO, which can be great for winter cold, but also keeps the southwest high and dry while producing a sharp N/S precip gradient in the PNW region. And come summer that pattern turns into a torch.

So you think that tight precip gradient we have seen is related to our recent hot summers?  Interesting.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

A very augtober like sunny and 73F here currently 

78 here

[snow_wizard]

You can see the area of low clouds rapidly eroding.  Might clear up pretty much everywhere by sunset.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Me. Every. Single. Time. If they are inside I get the vacuum. Thankfully we've only had small to medium sized bastards inside this Summer. A TON of those little tiny suckers. No giant house or wolf spiders since we had new screens put in the windows tightly fitting. It's really nice to be able to sleep knowing they can't crawl around the window screens anymore. I HATE SPIDERS

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 14 minutes

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

That’s a lot of dry. New Mexico is the oasis.

Augtober.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking like we might score a day or possibly 2 of seasonable temperatures next week before things finally warm again. 

[TacomaWx]

60 and cloudy. Should clear up soon but might still end up being the coldest max so far this fall. Current coldest max is 64. 

[BLI snowman]

50 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Give me a ‘16-‘17 winter is all I’m asking. 

'78-'79.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The 18z did what we knew it would… neuter the low.

[TT-SEA]

90 win season!  

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

'78-'79.

I think 16-17 was snowier than 78-79 at this location at least. Wasn't there an ice storm in January 1979? 

[snow_wizard]

Really surprising how little rain the coming trough is going to provide given how it morphs into a closed low over the area.  Looks like it will provide a solid kick down in temps though.  Looking like some lows in the 30s are in store.

[snow_wizard]

Obviously the mountains are going to see a huge drop in temps with the coming system.