October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Dave]

43 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Crazy that it’s only the 5th and the warmest October on record is already basically a foregone conclusion.

I'm pretty ok with it. October is generally a pretty benign weather month and it's nice to have pleasantly warm temps. We can both agree though that some serious dumpage of rain needs to happen asap.

[Omegaraptor]

45 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Jan 1937 huh?

Holy Cow Turds!!!!

 

Sum	543	71	-	-	1701	0	1.94	36.0	-
Average	17.5	2.3	9.9	-19.7	-	-	-	-	11.5
Normal	34.5	24.7	29.6	-	1097	0	1.97	12.3
1937-01-01	22	7	14.5	-13.7	50	0	0.00	0.0	3
1937-01-02	18	4	11.0	-17.2	54	0	0.01	0.1	3
1937-01-03	26	4	15.0	-13.3	50	0	T	T	2
1937-01-04	38	20	29.0	0.6	36	0	0.11	T	2
1937-01-05	20	4	12.0	-16.5	53	0	0.11	3.3	5
1937-01-06	10	-2	4.0	-24.6	61	0	0.00	0.0	5
1937-01-07	7	-7	0.0	-28.7	65	0	0.00	0.0	5
1937-01-08	7	-10	-1.5	-30.3	66	0	0.02	0.0	5
1937-01-09	18	5	11.5	-17.4	53	0	0.08	1.2	6
1937-01-10	22	1	11.5	-17.5	53	0	0.06	1.0	7
1937-01-11	14	-1	6.5	-22.6	58	0	T	T	7
1937-01-12	11	-5	3.0	-26.2	62	0	T	0.1	7
1937-01-13	20	6	13.0	-16.3	52	0	0.23	5.0	11
1937-01-14	16	12	14.0	-15.4	51	0	0.15	1.0	12
1937-01-15	22	13	17.5	-12.0	47	0	0.18	3.8	13
1937-01-16	13	-1	6.0	-23.6	59	0	0.06	T	13
1937-01-17	18	2	10.0	-19.7	55	0	0.02	2.1	13
1937-01-18	20	2	11.0	-18.8	54	0	T	T	13
1937-01-19	12	-12	0.0	-29.9	65	0	0.00	0.0	13
1937-01-20	6	-19	-6.5	-36.5	71	0	0.00	0.0	13
1937-01-21	5	-8	-1.5	-31.6	66	0	0.16	3.5	16
1937-01-22	11	-3	4.0	-26.2	61	0	0.02	1.1	16
1937-01-23	14	6	10.0	-20.3	55	0	0.10	2.8	17
1937-01-24	17	1	9.0	-21.4	56	0	T	0.5	16
1937-01-25	29	8	18.5	-12.0	46	0	0.24	2.4	17
1937-01-26	31	26	28.5	-2.1	36	0	0.11	3.4	18
1937-01-27	27	16	21.5	-9.2	43	0	0.18	2.0	18
1937-01-28	19	12	15.5	-15.2	49	0	0.04	2.7	21
1937-01-29	17	2	9.5	-21.3	55	0	0.00	0.0	21
1937-01-30	14	-3	5.5	-25.4	59	0	T	T	20
1937-01-31	19	-9	5.0	-26.0	60	0	0.06	T	19

Holy phuck. How is this even real. Subfreezing monthly average in Las Vegas. Oh and a 31/9 day too.

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Dave said:

I'm pretty ok with it. October is generally a pretty benign weather month and it's nice to have pleasantly warm temps. We can both agree though that some serious dumpage of rain needs to happen asap.

Yeah I hear ya. I’m totally ok with runaway inflation too, things are still pretty cheap here compared to other first world countries. I’m sure we can both agree gas needs to get below $3/gallon ASAP tho.

Edited October 6, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Holy phuck. How is this even real. Subfreezing monthly average in Las Vegas. Oh and a 31/9 day too.

that would kill all the tropical vegetation in modern day vegas if it recurred 

[Omegaraptor]

Oh and here's how the actually cold part of Nevada was doing.

This could pass for a winter month in some areas of interior Alaska.

[Phishy Wx]

was the whole west side of the country in the deep freeze in Jan 37?

[Phil]

00z GFS doesn’t bring a single drop of rain to the region.

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that would kill all the tropical vegetation in modern day vegas if it recurred 

Yeah... a fan palm or date palm is not surviving a month like that, plain and simple. I believe something like this happened in the December 1983 blast in south TX. Most palm trees were fried and were not replanted afterward.

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

was the whole west side of the country in the deep freeze in Jan 37?

Pretty much. From the looks of it CA and NV got the best of it though. Both states set their cold record that month with -45 and -50 respectively.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, this sucks. Way to go, Rob. That dumb moron. He should he shamed and have several rocks chucked at him.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS looks closer to what the ensembles have been showing.    Actually even less.    So much for winter I guess?    

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GFS looks closer to what the ensembles have been showing.    Actually even less.    So much for winter I guess?    

White Pumpkin CANCEL! I just made that up. Not bad.

[ShawniganLake]

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Really surprising how little rain the coming trough is going to provide given how it morphs into a closed low over the area.  Looks like it will provide a solid kick down in temps though.  Looking like some lows in the 30s are in store.

Is it really surprising if the system is originating in Siberia.  Not exactly a typically moist source region. 

[Phil]

D8, almost no precip anywhere in the lower-48.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Is it really surprising if the system is originating in Siberia.  Not exactly a typically moist source region. 

And the fact that now its just a little ULL scooting through northern BC.   Not getting that one day shot of rain on Monday that was shown previous runs does suck.   The Bolt Creek fire will continue to smolder indefinitely it appears.

[Phishy Wx]

46 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah I hear ya. I’m totally ok with runaway inflation too, things are still pretty cheap here compared to other first world countries. I’m sure we can both agree gas needs to get below $3/gallon ASAP tho.

considering what OPEC did today you can kiss cheap(er) gas goodbye for awhile, at least thru the midterms.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEFS looks similar to its previous runs for Monday and now the GFS agrees.   As Kayla said... you need ensemble support or it doesn't mean much. 

 

[Deweydog]

I screw in the orange porch light bulbs this afternoon and everything goes to SH*T.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEFS looks similar to its previous runs for Monday and now the GFS agrees.   As Kayla said... you need ensemble support or it doesn't mean much. 

 

What you really need is ICON support. I swear it’s the magical model that nobody takes seriously for some reason. It never bit on the trough solution. Didn’t even flinch. 

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

considering what OPEC did today you can kiss cheap(er) gas goodbye for awhile, at least thru the midterms.

Close to 9 bucks a gallon up here.  But our funny coloured money ain’t worth much. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Watch 00z runs tonight not only dig further west, but hold the chilly trough over us Day 6-10.

00z GFS in 43 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

LMAO. Yeah.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

What you really need is ICON support. I swear it’s the magical model that nobody takes seriously for some reason. It never bit on the trough solution. Didn’t even flinch. 

I take it very seriously.  It actually performs very well in snow situations up here. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I take it very seriously.  It actually performs very well in snow situations up here. 

It’s really good with QPF in my opinion. Much better than the over-optimistic Euro.

[ShawniganLake]

0z GEM also trended east with the trough. 

[ShawniganLake]

Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It’s really good with QPF in my opinion. Much better than the over-optimistic Euro.

You don’t often see it throw out ridiculous snow amounts like the other models do.  I think it’s run at a pretty good resolution. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

It’s really good with QPF in my opinion. Much better than the over-optimistic Euro.

I always thought the ICON runs way too wet... but I have not looked at it for precip in a long time.  

The ICON can come up with some really goofy solutions in the 4-7 day range and then suddenly snap back to the model consensus as it gets closer.   It did pretty well with this system, but that is not always the case.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I always thought the ICON runs way too wet... but I have not looked at it for precip in a long time.  

The ICON can come up with some really goofy solutions in the 4-7 day range and then suddenly snap back to the model consensus as it gets closer.   It did pretty well with this system, but that is not always the case.

I do remember reading somewhere that it’s more like a mesoscale model.  More useful at closer range.  I have no idea how factual that is. 

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I do remember reading somewhere that it’s more like a mesoscale model.  More useful at closer range.  I have no idea how factual that is. 

ICON is my favorite model. mostly because it comes out first. but sometimes it shows what i want. 

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

What you really need is ICON support. I swear it’s the magical model that nobody takes seriously for some reason. It never bit on the trough solution. Didn’t even flinch. 

Probably because Andrew used to hype it up so much.

[ShawniganLake]

Ensembles look like summer will continue 

[Meatyorologist]

Of all the model runs I've ever seen, the 00z GFS sure was one of them.

[Phil]

Not a drop of precip out to 10/22.

[Cloud]

Lol that jinx sure is working its magic

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm not sure what's more enjoyable. Looking at the 00z GFS tonight, or stepping in dog poop barefoot. Cat puke is also acceptable.

00z ECMWF in 18 minutes

[Christensen87]

 

[MossMan]

The Coyotes were busy tonight, they are prepping for a November for the ages! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Probably because Andrew used to hype it up so much.

The ICON resembles its name. 

[Gradient Keeper]

On 10/4/2022 at 10:30 PM, DJ Droppin said:

I was fairly confident last night that the EURO was going to lead the way. A nice cooldown for a few days, crisp nights, and inversions will begin to strengthen slowly.

 

On 10/4/2022 at 10:32 PM, snow_wizard said:

Yup...you called it.  I was actually a bit skeptical.  Tonight's total cave of the GFS, GEFS, and GEM is pretty convincing though.  This cold shot is going to be very noticeable after what we've been through.

Well, that didn't age well for either of us. Like a moldy cottage cheese.

[Deweydog]

Running out of time…

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Running out of time…

MLK day is just around the corner!