October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The Jim curse lives on! That "trough" doesn't bring any appreciable change in the weather even out here now. 

Hope to gawd Jim changes his mind about moving to Maine. Otherwise it’ll probably never snow here again.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Reminds me of January and February. Nonexistent jet and rainless runs forever.

Hasn’t the PNW midwinter problem been not enough blocking/too much jet?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 8/26/2022 at 9:49 PM, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Taking out that year leaves us this. 

I also feel strongly about the January 1957 analog. Adding that gives us this. I think January will give us the best chance to score this winter. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say we'll have the coldest and snowiest regional January in decades. 

 

 

16 hours ago, Doiinko said:

And PDX dropped to 3 degrees afterwards!
What analogs are you looking at? I know analogs aren't perfect they're still fun to look at.

I requoted my post from back in late August. I'll have to check and see if the analogs still remain relevant though. But they were showing good blocking up in Alaska for Dec/Jan and the latest EURO seasonals are showing that too. Also have to add in 1942 now as Jim mentioned.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hasn’t the PNW midwinter problem been not enough blocking/too much jet?

Sitting under a massive ridge for weeks on end isn't exactly optimal either.

[Cloud]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS precip, out to 10/22. Wild.

This is just absolutely absurd for the PNW and the mountain west states. Unreal. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS precip, out to 10/22. Wild.

Nothing within 500 miles of me.

[Phil]

SEA NWS drawing similarities October 1987.

Niño winter, but interesting nonetheless.

[Phil]

Arctic front heading for Kayla and Hawkstwelve on the 12z Euro.  

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Arctic front heading for Kayla and Hawkstwelve on the 12z Euro.  

Nah, it's going east. The RRR is like a forcefield. 

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Nah, it's going east. The RRR is like a forcefield. 

Fwiw, it appears to be on life support by day 10 of the euro.   Westerlies could be close to breaking through. 

[ShawniganLake]

I actually still believe the ridge will break down for the last 1/3 of October. I’m probably a dreamer 

[TacomaWx]

44 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The Jim curse lives on! That "trough" doesn't bring any appreciable change in the weather even out here now. 

Yup. Was hoping for a little snow but that seems unlikely now. Going to be staying 3 nights in west Yellowstone and 2 nights in whitefish near kalispell. Definitely going to Yellowstone and grand teton…might even hit glacier on my way back north. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fwiw, it appears to be on life support by day 10 of the euro.   Westerlies could be close to breaking through. 

Yeah... the ECMWF has had issues in the 7-10 day range with assuming the ridge will break down but none its solutions have worked out.    The EPS has been pretty rock solid though.   I will believe when I see it happening on the EPS.

[TT-SEA]

For reference... here is day 15 on the 00Z EPS.

 

[Phishy Wx]

Jan 1957 huh?

 

looking good

 

Climatological Data for Spokane Area, WA (ThreadEx) - January 1957
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Temperature				HDD	CDD	Precipitation	New Snow	Snow Depth
	Maximum	Minimum	Average	Departure
Sum	663	267	-	-	1544	0	1.34	20.8	-
Average	21.4	8.6	15.0	-14.6	-	-	-	-	4.6
Normal	34.5	24.7	29.6	-	1097	0	1.97	12.3
1957-01-01	31	26	28.5	0.3	36	0	0.02	0.4	0
1957-01-02	32	26	29.0	0.8	36	0	0.02	0.5	T
1957-01-03	32	27	29.5	1.2	35	0	0.01	0.1	1
1957-01-04	29	25	27.0	-1.4	38	0	T	T	T
1957-01-05	28	23	25.5	-3.0	39	0	T	T	T
1957-01-06	31	20	25.5	-3.1	39	0	T	T	T
1957-01-07	35	29	32.0	3.3	33	0	T	0.1	T
1957-01-08	31	23	27.0	-1.8	38	0	0.07	1.2	T
1957-01-09	32	22	27.0	-1.9	38	0	T	T	1
1957-01-10	31	26	28.5	-0.5	36	0	0.28	2.8	1
1957-01-11	36	30	33.0	3.9	32	0	0.25	2.6	4
1957-01-12	36	22	29.0	-0.2	36	0	T	0.0	5
1957-01-13	27	9	18.0	-11.3	47	0	0.00	0.0	4
1957-01-14	20	10	15.0	-14.4	50	0	0.01	0.1	4
1957-01-15	20	2	11.0	-18.5	54	0	0.02	0.6	4
1957-01-16	14	-3	5.5	-24.1	59	0	0.00	0.0	4
1957-01-17	16	-2	7.0	-22.7	58	0	0.00	0.0	4
1957-01-18	16	-2	7.0	-22.8	58	0	T	T	4
1957-01-19	17	-1	8.0	-21.9	57	0	0.25	4.0	4
1957-01-20	18	7	12.5	-17.5	52	0	0.07	0.9	7
1957-01-21	16	0	8.0	-22.1	57	0	0.01	0.1	8
1957-01-22	14	6	10.0	-20.2	55	0	0.09	3.1	8
1957-01-23	14	-1	6.5	-23.8	58	0	0.01	0.4	11
1957-01-24	10	-11	-0.5	-30.9	65	0	0.00	0.0	9
1957-01-25	9	-12	-1.5	-32.0	66	0	0.00	0.0	9
1957-01-26	4	-16	-6.0	-36.6	71	0	0.00	0.0	8
1957-01-27	0	-18	-9.0	-39.7	74	0	0.02	0.4	8
1957-01-28	13	-10	1.5	-29.2	63	0	0.00	0.0	8
1957-01-29	9	-12	-1.5	-32.3	66	0	0.03	0.5	8
1957-01-30	19	7	13.0	-17.9	52	0	0.18	2.9	8
1957-01-31	23	15	19.0	-12.0	46	0	T	0.1	11

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the ECMWF has had issues in the 7-10 day range with assuming the ridge will break down but none its solutions have worked out.    The EPS has been pretty rock solid though.   I will believe when I see it happening on the EPS.

12z Euro wouldn’t break down the ridge, it’s actually about to reform in the GOA. But there are indications it will become flatter or less amplified later this month.

[MossMan]

It would sure be nice to have such stagnant/stable pattern when it comes to arctic cold/snow. 

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It would sure be nice to have such stagnant/stable pattern when it comes to arctic cold/snow. 

I think 1948-1949 fits that criteria. 90 straight days of cold in the Sierra. 

[Omegaraptor]

Only 57 at Corvallis. Could be headed for a pretty major underperformance.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Jan 1957 huh?

 

looking good

 

Climatological Data for Spokane Area, WA (ThreadEx) - January 1957
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Temperature				HDD	CDD	Precipitation	New Snow	Snow Depth
	Maximum	Minimum	Average	Departure
Sum	663	267	-	-	1544	0	1.34	20.8	-
Average	21.4	8.6	15.0	-14.6	-	-	-	-	4.6
Normal	34.5	24.7	29.6	-	1097	0	1.97	12.3
1957-01-01	31	26	28.5	0.3	36	0	0.02	0.4	0
1957-01-02	32	26	29.0	0.8	36	0	0.02	0.5	T
1957-01-03	32	27	29.5	1.2	35	0	0.01	0.1	1
1957-01-04	29	25	27.0	-1.4	38	0	T	T	T
1957-01-05	28	23	25.5	-3.0	39	0	T	T	T
1957-01-06	31	20	25.5	-3.1	39	0	T	T	T
1957-01-07	35	29	32.0	3.3	33	0	T	0.1	T
1957-01-08	31	23	27.0	-1.8	38	0	0.07	1.2	T
1957-01-09	32	22	27.0	-1.9	38	0	T	T	1
1957-01-10	31	26	28.5	-0.5	36	0	0.28	2.8	1
1957-01-11	36	30	33.0	3.9	32	0	0.25	2.6	4
1957-01-12	36	22	29.0	-0.2	36	0	T	0.0	5
1957-01-13	27	9	18.0	-11.3	47	0	0.00	0.0	4
1957-01-14	20	10	15.0	-14.4	50	0	0.01	0.1	4
1957-01-15	20	2	11.0	-18.5	54	0	0.02	0.6	4
1957-01-16	14	-3	5.5	-24.1	59	0	0.00	0.0	4
1957-01-17	16	-2	7.0	-22.7	58	0	0.00	0.0	4
1957-01-18	16	-2	7.0	-22.8	58	0	T	T	4
1957-01-19	17	-1	8.0	-21.9	57	0	0.25	4.0	4
1957-01-20	18	7	12.5	-17.5	52	0	0.07	0.9	7
1957-01-21	16	0	8.0	-22.1	57	0	0.01	0.1	8
1957-01-22	14	6	10.0	-20.2	55	0	0.09	3.1	8
1957-01-23	14	-1	6.5	-23.8	58	0	0.01	0.4	11
1957-01-24	10	-11	-0.5	-30.9	65	0	0.00	0.0	9
1957-01-25	9	-12	-1.5	-32.0	66	0	0.00	0.0	9
1957-01-26	4	-16	-6.0	-36.6	71	0	0.00	0.0	8
1957-01-27	0	-18	-9.0	-39.7	74	0	0.02	0.4	8
1957-01-28	13	-10	1.5	-29.2	63	0	0.00	0.0	8
1957-01-29	9	-12	-1.5	-32.3	66	0	0.03	0.5	8
1957-01-30	19	7	13.0	-17.9	52	0	0.18	2.9	8
1957-01-31	23	15	19.0	-12.0	46	0	T	0.1	11

Though Sep/Oct 1956 were basically the opposite pattern to this year.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS actually does show a ridge breakdown at the end of run.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Hasn’t the PNW midwinter problem been not enough blocking/too much jet?

Not enough cowbell. Gotta have more cowbell. 

[T-Town]

31 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yup. Was hoping for a little snow but that seems unlikely now. Going to be staying 3 nights in west Yellowstone and 2 nights in whitefish near kalispell. Definitely going to Yellowstone and grand teton…might even hit glacier on my way back north. 

Sounds like an awesome road trip. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Not enough cowbell. Gotta have more cowbell. 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS leaning towards a flatter pattern as well at the end of the run.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 12Z GEFS actually does show a ridge breakdown at the end of run.

Not the first time it’s showed that, though.

Still think this pattern is more likely to end with a discontinuous retrogression or poleward migration of -NPO field than a jet extension.

But if that fails then the intraseasonal/CCKW component that reaches the WHEM late Oct/early Nov would indeed hint at a jet extension. But that would take longer.

[Phil]

That said, the signal for troughing in the NW-Pacific has increased on the 12z EPS. That tends to amplify surf and bring cold air into the west-central US.

It’s 300hrs out, however that is definitely something to watch as a potential conduit to a pattern change.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

That said, the signal for troughing in the NW-Pacific has increased on the 12z EPS. That tends to amplify surf and bring cold air into the west-central US.

It’s 300hrs out, however that is definitely something to watch as a potential conduit to a pattern change.

Do you think we could see some cold/snow in mid-November?

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What's the deal there? Low of 48 last night. Seems like radiational cooling has gone the way of the Dodo. Takes something like late February to bring us any kind of continental airmass. 

Warmer latent boundary layer conditions with warmer upper level airmasses. Warmer oceans. All connected I would say. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

49 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yup. Was hoping for a little snow but that seems unlikely now. Going to be staying 3 nights in west Yellowstone and 2 nights in whitefish near kalispell. Definitely going to Yellowstone and grand teton…might even hit glacier on my way back north. 

Enjoy your trip! My experience is that it really pays to hang around the main (i.e. Upper) geyser basin for a number of hours. Odds are you will probably catch a number of eruptions in addition to Old Faithful.

At Norris Geyser Basin, Steamboat (world’s largest!) is in an active cycle, so if you’re lucky it just might put on a show for you.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

SEA NWS drawing similarities October 1987.

Niño winter, but interesting nonetheless.

1987-88 was near complete sh*t further north, but like a lot of El Ninos it had a pretty decent and extended cold stretch for NW OR and SW WA from mid December to mid January following the early December jet extension. No major airmasses but just persistently chilly with a number of modest snowfalls.

Edited October 6, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Phishy Wx]

smoke is back today.  gross.  wanted to enjoy the warm afternoon grilling and having some brews. oof

[MossMan]

Fog has been replaced by smoke. Very stinky out here again. 

[ShawniganLake]

Major pattern change between the 20-25th. It’s pretty much a done deal. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Major pattern change between the 20-25th. It’s pretty much a done deal. 

Are you trying to do your own Jim Jinx?  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Major pattern change between the 20-25th. It’s pretty much a done deal. 

Clown range has never been wrong!

[Phishy Wx]

 

[TacomaWx]

48 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Sounds like an awesome road trip. 

Haven’t been to montana since I was like 8 years old…never been to Wyoming. So it’ll basically be a whole new experience. 

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you trying to do your own Jim Jinx?  

that's a reverse jinx, in order to jinx the original jinx

[TacomaWx]

25 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Enjoy your trip! My experience is that it really pays to hang around the main (i.e. Upper) geyser basin for a number of hours. Odds are you will probably catch a number of eruptions in addition to Old Faithful.

At Norris Geyser Basin, Steamboat (world’s largest!) is in an active cycle, so if you’re lucky it just might put on a show for you.

I plan on spending half of my first day there in Yellowstone and the other half down at grand Teton. Then a full day the second day then going back up northwest to flathead lake area. Thanks for the tip really hoping to see some wildlife there.