October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I miss Requiem. Requiem for a climate. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't disagree with you Jim. But I am just kind of done arguing with Tim. He's reveling in this BS right now, and he is going to rub it in as long as he can. Hopefully the worm turns and we can throw it back at him in a few months, but who knows. He could be right and continue to taunt, troll, and make our lives a living hell until eternity. 

I fully expect (and hope) we get a ton of precip this winter.    Can't really troll me with anything that happens between November-March because I expect it to be stormy.    I only really care about the warm season (April - October).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I fully expect (and hope) we get a ton of precip this winter.    Can't really troll me with anything that happens between November-March because I expect it to be stormy.    I only really care about the warm season (April - October).

If I had the power to make it rain every single day between April and October... You know I would. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If I had the power to make it rain every single day between April and October... You know I would. 

I am very aware.   And glad you don't!   

[TT-SEA]

74/53 at SEA today... that is +9 on the high and +3 on the low.    

Very little inversion effect despite the haze indicating there is definitely an inversion.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am very aware.   And glad you don't!   

Just keeping it real wit u dogg.

[High Desert Mat?]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If I had the power to make it rain every single day between April and October... You know I would. 

I second that Ichabod Crane! When the rains start, and they will, I hope they don’t stop until at least the 4th of July next year and it’s a cool and damp summer. We are due anyways, so why not make it next summer?  

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The Ag Weather update today begins with a really interesting explanation of the QBO and AAM and how it impacts ENSO.    And why we might finally begin to see this Nina fade later in the year and which ultimately should mean less blocking and a more robust jet stream.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YG6QVifD1I

Hmm..so I would put it differently.

The period with *descending* easterly shear (IE: the transition from -QBO to +QBO) tends to see a raised/cool tropical tropopause & reduction in static stability, which invigorates the MJO, allowing it to propagate east of the dateline and trigger WWBs. And that is how it can trigger El Niño transitions.

Of course those same changes in the tropical instability/MJO waves can be triggered by major SSW events, and sometimes that is actually what initiates the change in ENSO even with out-of-phase QBO.

It isn’t that La Niña/El Niño are favored in -QBO/+QBO, respectively. There are many cases of both ENSO phases occurring in tandem with all QBOs. But there are certain “sensitive periods” in the QBO cycle when an ENSO transition is more likely to occur, statistically speaking.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I second that Ichabod Crane! When the rains start, and they will, I hope they don’t stop until at least the 4th of July next year and it’s a cool and damp summer. We are due anyways, so why not make it next summer?  

You should move up here.   You live in a desert that averages 8 inches of rain per year.

[TacomaWx]

70/50 today. +70 #4 this month. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

70/50 today. +70 #4 this month. 

Yeah....I made 73 after only reaching 61 yesterday.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I second that Ichabod Crane! When the rains start, and they will, I hope they don’t stop until at least the 4th of July next year and it’s a cool and damp summer. We are due anyways, so why not make it next summer?  

I think the summer change may be semi permanent.  Not certain yet, but it looks very possible.  The 4CH is just so much more dominant than it used to be.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the summer change may be semi permanent.  Not certain yet, but it looks very possible.  The 4CH is just so much more dominant than it used to be.

Please keep saying this. We’ll get our coolest summer in a decade before you know it.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the summer change may be semi permanent.  Not certain yet, but it looks very possible.  The 4CH is just so much more dominant than it used to be.

Nothing is permanent.

The 4CH was more bloated during the MWP than it is today, and that eventually gave way to the LIA.

Interesting to note the MWP was also dominated by La Niña and warm extratropical SSTs, so we’re basically reliving that climate era now.

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I second that Ichabod Crane! When the rains start, and they will, I hope they don’t stop until at least the 4th of July next year and it’s a cool and damp summer. We are due anyways, so why not make it next summer?  

I want a lot of cold weather, and rainy patterns don't go very with that in the winter.  I can't understand why anyone would want rain every day.  I'm on board for either November or December being very wet and then going into some big time cold.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Nothing is permanent.

The 4CH was more bloated during the MWP than it is today, and that eventually gave way to the LIA.

Interesting to note the MWP was also dominated by La Niña and warm extratropical SSTs, so we’re basically reliving that climate era now.

The MWP also lasted centuries, so relative to our lifetimes it may as well be permanent.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Nothing is permanent.

The 4CH was more bloated during the MWP than it is today, and that eventually gave way to the LIA.

Interesting to note the MWP was also dominated by La Niña and warm extratropical SSTs, so we’re basically reliving that climate era now.

Very interesting.  BTW...that's why I said semi permanent.  The one thing that gives me some hope we could go back to cooler summers is the suddenness with which the shift to hot summers happened.  It could shift back just as suddenly I suppose.

[High Desert Mat?]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You should move up here.   You live in a desert that averages 8 inches of rain per year.

Well I did grow up in the valley. From Salem to Portland my first 35 years of life. So I get the rain and gloominess. But yeah, I do miss the rain now that I’m over here somewhat. Come about March on that side of the mountains I did want more sun and warmth.  You also live in a much wetter area than PDX but it seems like you “expect” it to be nice and 70 all the time. That’s just not your climate. You get more rainy days than most of the country does. I think you’d be happy in Tucson or San Diego. Just my two cents. 
 

We can all see right through your posts of high 500mb maps and EPS taunts. Like what’s being said regularly now, the worm will turn. 

[Kayla]

5 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Yup. Was hoping for a little snow but that seems unlikely now. Going to be staying 3 nights in west Yellowstone and 2 nights in whitefish near kalispell. Definitely going to Yellowstone and grand teton…might even hit glacier on my way back north. 

Wow, sounds like an amazing trip! It's going to be beautiful, falls colors are really good this year. Just about reaching peak in Bozeman now and maybe a little past peak once you get to west but still pretty!

I'm sure you have things pretty well planned out but be sure to check out the painted pots and of course Grand Prismatic. And don't forget to bring your bear spray for any hikes you end up doing. Grizzlies are out, very active and fattening up before hibernation! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Very interesting.  BTW...that's why I said semi permanent.  The one thing that gives me some hope we could go back to cooler summers is the suddenness with which the shift to hot summers happened.  It could shift back just as suddenly I suppose.

No. Plz stop.

 

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I want a lot of cold weather, and rainy patterns don't go very with that in the winter.  I can't understand why anyone would want rain every day.  I'm on board for either November or December being very wet and then going into some big time cold.

Back when we had lots of cold in the winter we generally had much cooler and wetter shoulder seasons, including a good chunk of the warm season. You can continue to live in make believe land if you wish though.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Please keep saying this. We’ll get our coolest summer in a decade before you know it.

Kind of a mean thing to say.

[High Desert Mat?]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I want a lot of cold weather, and rainy patterns don't go very with that in the winter.  I can't understand why anyone would want rain every day.  I'm on board for either November or December being very wet and then going into some big time cold.

Believe me Jim, I want cold weather too. It was meant for Tim not wanting rain no matter what he says. I always wanted cold and snow when I lived over there. Climo suggests otherwise. So I’ll take the cold rain and over warmth and sun in the winter any day. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

No. Plz stop.

 

Back when we had lots of cold in the winter we generally had much cooler and wetter shoulder seasons, including a good chunk of the warm season. You can continue to live in make believe land if you wish though.

Summer was very dry in the first quarter of the 20th century, but a lot cooler.

Just can't understand why you are so uncivil to me lately.  You really need to assess that.

 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Believe me Jim, I want cold weather too. It was meant for Tim not wanting rain no matter what he says. I always wanted cold and snow when I lived over there. Climo suggests otherwise. So I’ll take the cold rain and over warmth and sun in the winter any day. 

I get what you're saying.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Summer was very dry in the first quarter of the 20th century, but a lot cooler.

Just can't understand why you are so uncivil to me lately.  You really need to assess that.

 

Because it’s frustrating to see you stare reality in the face and refuse to acknowledge it. I apologize if I’m coming off uncivil.

[TacomaWx]

8 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Wow, sounds like an amazing trip! It's going to be beautiful, falls colors are really good this year. Just about reaching peak in Bozeman now and maybe a little past peak once you get to west but still pretty!

I'm sure you have things pretty well planned out but be sure to check out the painted pots and of course Grand Prismatic. And don't forget to bring your bear spray for any hikes you end up doing. Grizzlies are out, very active and fattening up before hibernation! 

Yeah have been doing my research on the route I’ll be taking through there. Those are definitely on the list bear spray too. 

[T-Town]

Quite the cirrus display tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Well I did grow up in the valley. From Salem to Portland my first 35 years of life. So I get the rain and gloominess. But yeah, I do miss the rain now that I’m over here somewhat. Come about March on that side of the mountains I did want more sun and warmth.  You also live in a much wetter area than PDX but it seems like you “expect” it to be nice and 70 all the time. That’s just not your climate. You get more rainy days than most of the country does. I think you’d be happy in Tucson or San Diego. Just my two cents. 
 

We can all see right through your posts of high 500mb maps and EPS taunts. Like what’s being said regularly now, the worm will turn. 

Nah... part of the joy of living here is the reward of the warm season.   I wouldn't appreciate it nearly as much in a warm, dry climate.    That would be boring.   And I don't mind November - March either.    The storms can be fun... same with snow... and there are nice days mixed... and of course we travel to warm places.     

But you are talking about it raining through the 4th of July and all of next summer and of course that is impossible in your location.    Just thought maybe you might like a gloomy place.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Quite the cirrus display tonight. 

Wow.   Spectacular sky.

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Summer was very dry in the first quarter of the 20th century, but a lot cooler.

Just can't understand why you are so uncivil to me lately.  You really need to assess that.

 

He’s bored. 
 

I don’t know much about you Jim except I think you’re in your mid 50’s and when I read your posts, that I enjoy btw, I think of a 17 year old talking sometimes. No harm intended. Jesse just points it out the most. You are the wishcaster whisperer. It’s fun to read. 

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... part of the joy of living here is the reward of the warm season.   I wouldn't appreciate it nearly as much in a warm, dry climate.    That would be boring.   And I don't mind November - March either.    The storms can be fun... same with snow... and there are nice days mixed... and of course we travel to warm places.     

But you are talking about it raining through the 4th of July and all of next summer and of course that is impossible in your location.    Just thought maybe you might like a gloomy place.

 

Nope. Like I said, I’ve lived in the gloom and it didn’t mess with me as much as it does you. I didn’t mean that I want it to rain here through July 4th. I meant at your place lol. Just playin wit u dogg. 

[Requiem]

Genuinely do not recall such a prolific smoke producer so late in the season. At least not so close and in a long while. 

 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Believe me Jim, I want cold weather too. It was meant for Tim not wanting rain no matter what he says. 

I want rain very badly right now.    Everything looks like crap... the landscape and sky.    Some balance would be nice.   

Such a silly sentiment that everyone must have extreme preferences with no nuace.   If you like rain then you never, ever want to see the sun.   And if you enjoy sun then you never, ever want to see a raindrop.    Pretty simple-minded.  

 

 

[High Desert Mat?]

On another note, I bet Russell wishes he still had Lockett and Metcalf. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

On another note, I bet Russell wishes he still had Lockett and Metcalf. 

I wish the Colts would stop self-destructing.    This is a battle of terrible teams.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

He’s bored. 
 

I don’t know much about you Jim except I think you’re in your mid 50’s and when I read your posts, that I enjoy btw, I think of a 17 year old talking sometimes. No harm intended. Jesse just points it out the most. You are the wishcaster whisperer. It’s fun to read. 

I get it.  On the other hand it's not unreasonable to expect something pretty noteworthy when we come out of this pattern.  That is just based on similar cases in the past in non El Nino years.  Even in a Nino year we had 1991 which was one of the all time great reversals in the month of October.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Summer was very dry in the first quarter of the 20th century, but a lot cooler.

Just can't understand why you are so uncivil to me lately.  You really need to assess that.

 

[High Desert Mat?]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I get it.  On the other hand it's not unreasonable to expect something pretty noteworthy when we come out of this pattern.  That is just based on similar cases in the past in non El Nino years.  Even in a Nino year we had 1991 which was one of the all time great reversals in the month of October.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the summer change may be semi permanent.  Not certain yet, but it looks very possible.  The 4CH is just so much more dominant than it used to be.

Sadly I agree. I just think we bake in the summer now. 

[T-Town]

Got busy watching foolsball and almost missed the sunset.