October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[GobBluth]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Probably in the form of undercutters, or NW sliders like the potential system next week. This perfect, unblemished ridging is unsustainable this time of year. Push it any further than this, and we'll be getting into some real zany territory, far removed from not only climo, but also previous high water marks for Fall ridging. We're already beginning to right now.

An undercutting pattern later this winter as the Pacific jet gets its act together would be textbook Nina. Just odd that the blocking regime has already commenced.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls also had 9 straight lows in the teens to close out November 1952. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1952&month=11&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

Also checked out 1942 since Wiz has brought it up quite a few times now. Not really seeing the correlation there... But fun to look at. 

September was very warm and incredibly dry, but in a continental way with a lot of big diurnal ranges. Just a different climate back then, you could have warm days, but lows would recover at night.  

October 1942 was warm as well, but it did end up raining 5.5" that month. November was extremely wet, with temps near average. December was very wet with a nice snow event towards the beginning of the month, and then fairly mild. January was great, and February and March were decent, both with snow events too. Overall I would definitely take a similar winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z CFS had a couple of fall systems to close out October. Ridge rebuilds at the beginning of November, but then retrogrades into the GOA and opens the door for an early season blast of cold air. 

[Omegaraptor]

Wondering whether to ski Hoodoo this year or get Ikon Base Pass. Ikon Base gives you 5 days at Crystal and 5 days at Bachelor. Of course Hoodoo has $29 Thursdays as well.

I’d go up to Seattle for winter break to ski Crystal but PNW skiing in December is kind of hit or miss. Hmmmm

[TT-SEA]

10-day precip from 12Z GFS...

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

10-day precip from 12Z GFS...

 

Looks like Long Beach gets some rain!

[BLI snowman]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On this date in 1952 Silver Falls had an 89/32 day. 

Difference was that we still had cold nights back then during our massive ridging.

[Seattle]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the low clouds are less extensive today.     But even if the low clouds clear there can still be an inversion effect on temperatures.

Fog already gone and the sun is breaking through the low clouds pretty steadily in N. Seattle. I think 70 is on the table today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Difference was that we still had cold nights back then during our massive ridging.

What's the deal there? Low of 48 last night. Seems like radiational cooling has gone the way of the Dodo. Takes something like late February to bring us any kind of continental airmass. 

[Christensen87]

I think Cliff is going to have to update his forecast.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/10/rain-fall-weather-and-potential.html

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Christensen87 said:

I think Cliff is going to have to update his forecast.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/10/rain-fall-weather-and-potential.html

Yeah... that pattern change is totally gone now.   He will probably just delete his post from yesterday rather than updating with a new post.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Brutal early season cold on the way for the NE. 

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

got down to 43 last hour

 

diurnal range is getting fun

 

83/42 yesterday

 

hoping for some 71/30's next week

We have had a couple 73/31F days back to back. Frosty mornings followed by warm afternoons. Shoulder season is the best because there are no tourist.

[Omegaraptor]

Ikon also gets you unlimited Squaw Valley, I mean, Palisades Tahoe. Corvallis-Truckee is only 8.5 hour drive (but that’s taking 139 Klamath-Susanville which I hear is a pretty highway but sketchy in winter). Might have to see if anyone else is getting Ikon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Ikon also gets you unlimited Squaw Valley, I mean, Palisades Tahoe. Corvallis-Truckee is only 8.5 hour drive (but that’s taking 139 Klamath-Susanville which I hear is sketchy in winter). Might have to see if anyone else is getting Ikon.

Probably depends on what kind of winter we have. My mother-in-law grew up near Susanville, eccentric father, Japanese immigrant mother who barely knew English. All in a shack with 6 kids trying to farm. Anyways, she said the heating in their abode was not so great, winters were legit. 

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Ikon also gets you unlimited Squaw Valley, I mean, Palisades Tahoe. Corvallis-Truckee is only 8.5 hour drive (but that’s taking 139 Klamath-Susanville which I hear is sketchy in winter). Might have to see if anyone else is getting Ikon.

Palisades built a new gondola that will connect it to Alpine Meadows making a mega resort this season. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We have had a couple 73/31F days back to back. Frosty mornings followed by warm afternoons. Shoulder season is the best because there are no tourist.

Looks lovely. 

[MossMan]

Foggy. 

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably depends on what kind of winter we have. My mother-in-law grew up near Susanville, eccentric father, Japanese immigrant mother who barely knew English. All in a shack with 6 kids trying to farm. Anyways, she said the heating in their abode was not so great, winters were legit. 

That’s a great story. Not an easy place to “make it” in, that’s for sure.

Yeah the NE CA high plateau has a pretty legit climate. The largely empty northern part of Lassen County is very cold. Pretty much an ideal Jim climate. Here’s a spot on 395 that has old data but looks like it could fit right into NE WA or interior BC:

[Christensen87]

35 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We have had a couple 73/31F days back to back. Frosty mornings followed by warm afternoons. Shoulder season is the best because there are no tourist.

Just took my dog to Kiva Beach, it was amazing! Nothing better than Tahoe in the summertime. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

That’s a great story. Not an easy place to “make it” in, that’s for sure.

Yeah the NE CA high plateau has a pretty legit climate. The largely empty northern part of Lassen County is very cold. Pretty much an ideal Jim climate. Here’s a spot on 395 that has old data but looks like it could fit right into NE WA or interior BC:

Specifically they actually lived by Ravendale:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravendale,_California

 

Which is about 25-30 miles NE of Susanville, and at a similar elevation to Madeline. 

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Specifically they actually lived by Ravendale:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravendale,_California

 

Which is about 25-30 miles NE of Susanville, and at a similar elevation to Madeline. 

Wild stuff. I imagine most of what they farm there is alfalfa. Fort Rock and Silver Lake have basically the same climate and alfalfa is their primary crop. Not many options when it freezes in July and August.

[AlTahoe]

13 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Just took my dog to Kiva Beach, it was amazing! Nothing better than Tahoe in the summertime. 

Nice! There is a dog beach (off leash) at the end of my street about 4 miles east of Kiva. I took the pictures about where the red box is. You can walk out hundreds of yards right now and the water is less than waste deep. Most weekdays nobody else is out there in off season. 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Nice! There is a dog beach (off leash) at the end of my street about 4 miles east of Kiva. I took the pictures about where the red box is. You can walk out hundreds of yards right now and the water is less than waste deep. Most weekdays nobody else is out there in off season. 

I’d be worried about sharks that far from shore. 

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 50 this morning…still haven’t gotten into the 40s since 9/22. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overnight low of 51°F here. Stupidly mild for October.

[AlTahoe]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d be worried about sharks that far from shore. 

You mean Shark Lake? Lol 

 

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4416518/

[Phil]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Human cause climate change has ripped up the playbook. Blaming Tonga is just another form of denialism. The script has changed, the old playbook is no longer effective. 

This makes zero sense. Recent years have not been persistently ridgy in the autumn out there. We just had several days of record *cold* high temperatures, breaking records from the 19th century.

I hope you’re trolling, brother, because this is a very bad take.

[Kayla]

Looks like western WA has officially joined the rest of the West drought party with D1 (moderate) classification now.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Tonga was being blamed for unusually cold and wet weather this spring and is now being blamed for unusually hot and dry weather since mid-July. It can’t possibly explain every unusual weather event / unusual temps. But hopefully we will get to know more about the effects on climate soon.

Well, the effects could easily be state dependent.

However the spring pattern was almost certainly driven by the very late SSW/dynamic final warming in March. Not Tonga. That would be way too early.

[Cloud]

Can tell from the drive to work this morning around 7:30 that it would be sunnier today... it was a lot brighter on the drive. Sun is now out with fog still in the distant and lifting. We'll probably reach 70 today with the sun being out and about 6 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. 

[Phil]

Tonga could have directly aided in the redevelopment of the Niña, but the middle latitude pattern during the spring was almost certainly driven by the SSW in March. That was a stratospheric switch flip from record breaking strong vortex to full wind reversal within a month.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

10-day precip from 12Z GFS...

 

Randy should've extended his boating season.  

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Looks like western WA has officially joined the rest of the West drought party with D1 (moderate) classification now.

So the wet spring was very much needed and is now a thing of the past. Very glad it happened.

[Phil]

This is what drove the impressive cold last spring. Or at least augmented it significantly.

[Kayla]

The Jim curse lives on! That "trough" doesn't bring any appreciable change in the weather even out here now. 

[Phil]

12z GFS precip, out to 10/22. Wild.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

10-day precip from 12Z GFS...

 

Want October rain? Move to Baja!

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

So the wet spring was very much needed and is now a thing of the past. Very glad it happened.

We'd probably be having water shortages right now if not for it.

[Omegaraptor]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS precip, out to 10/22. Wild.

Reminds me of January and February. Nonexistent jet and rainless runs forever.