October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe the euro will tease us for another run or two. 

[RentonHill]

45 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I'm not sure what's more enjoyable. Looking at the 00z GFS tonight, or stepping in dog poop barefoot. Cat puke is also acceptable.

00z ECMWF in 18 minutes

I stepped on a slug in my garage when I was a kid. Like 5 years old. It’s burned into my core memory and always will be. That cold, smooth, slippery goo…

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Maybe the euro will tease us for another run or two. 

I freaking hope not! No toying with my mind or my emotions!

6z GFS in 3 hours 22 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 4

GFS

[Omegaraptor]

56 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not a drop of precip out to 10/22.

Willamdeath Valley in the Desert Northwest

[Cloud]

Pretty remarkable to see a pacific systems not being able to go anywhere, except spins in there. Our jet is straight dead right now and it's a remarkably persistent pattern that'll seem to last for a while. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5'er

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Maybe the euro will tease us for another run or two. 

Nope.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 5 (Past 4 runs) King GFS? or ICON(Hasselhoff)

[Cloud]

SEA managed to pull back to back 64F days..  which amazingly is 1 degree below normal for this time of year and feels weird for being "normal" 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

SEA managed to pull back to back 64F days..  which amazingly is 1 degree below normal for this time of year and feels weird for being "normal" 

Felt cold today. I completely agree 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[Doinko]

Well that's disappointing. At least it wasn't during the winter where an arctic blast became nothing!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 KONA Low!

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a royal bummer on the models tonight.  At least this isn't winter when it would really count.

[Gradient Keeper]

It just seems like the pattern is moving towards a direction where we could see a big change even before mid-month, but it just never gets there. Yet. NOT YET!

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Well that's disappointing. At least it wasn't during the winter where an arctic blast became nothing!

Oh yeah it would be 90 times more disappointing then!

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Talk about a royal bummer on the models tonight.  At least this isn't winter when it would really count.

No doubt! No Ledge October!

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to make a firm prediction we will either be going into abnormal cold or a very wet period by Oct 25.  Historically speaking it would be beyond belief if this pattern went beyond that time frame.

[snow_wizard]

My low has improved to 50 now after a high of 61 today.  Pretty much a normal average for the date.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to make a firm prediction we will either be going into abnormal cold or a very wet period by Oct 25.  Historically speaking it would be beyond belief if this pattern went beyond that time frame.

I think it’ll be a bit later. Early November maybe?

I do like the chances for a cold, stormy November for the West as a whole this year. There is now a growing consensus for a flip to -NAO sometime during the 2nd week of November across guidance and analog pools, and with that often comes -PNA (the two anticyclones tend to constructively reinforce).

[Cloud]

It would appears the GFS is the one leading the way here... remarkable. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er! Well that's different. Undercut that ridge!

[RentonHill]

It’s not an extreme pattern per se, but actually a very stable pattern producing extreme medium-long term records due to persistence of said stable patterns be it wet dry or cold etc

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

It’s not an extreme pattern per se, but actually a very stable pattern producing extreme medium-long term records due to persistence of said stable patterns be it wet dry or cold etc

 

It seems to be a global thing too.  Patterns are just locking in like the jaws of a bull dog.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er! Well that's different. Undercut that ridge!

The atmosphere is remarkably compartmentalized for so early in the season.  If that happens this winter things could almost come to a standstill as far as the PJ is concerned.

[The Blob]

My garden spider munching on a monarch last week.

[Deweydog]

[snow_wizard]

Many of the CPC analogs tonight are from cold ENSO years.  Quite a few of the winters had cold Januarys.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, The Blob said:

My garden spider munching on a monarch last week.

I recently kept two house spiders as pets in same container.. 1 big, 1 small. The big one ate the small one for lunch/dinner. I had no idea they cannibalize. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Many of the CPC analogs tonight are from cold ENSO years.  Quite a few of the winters had cold Januarys.

There’s 1988/89 and 1962/63 showing up as 00z GFS analogs. Also 1971/72, 1993/94, and 2003/04.

All of those delivered heavy duty cold to the CONUS.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

There’s 1988/89 and 1962/63 showing up as 00z GFS analogs. Also 1971/72, 1993/94, and 2003/04.

All of those delivered heavy duty cold to the CONUS.

The winter of 1954-55 had the most extreme March blast of the 20th century here also.  Good list.

[Gradient Keeper]

12:35 AM near West Gresham

Temp: 54.7 with Fog developing.... Inversion developing and no 85 today for PDX? What ya think?

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12:35 AM near West Gresham

Temp: 54.7 with Fog developing.... Inversion developing and no 85 today for PDX? What ya think?

85 is pretty much top tier at this point. Tomorrow doesn’t quite look top tier.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

85 is pretty much top tier at this point. Tomorrow doesn’t quite look top tier.

I agree, but that's what is forecast. I'm not buying it.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

12:35 AM near West Gresham

Temp: 54.7 with Fog developing.... Inversion developing and no 85 today for PDX? What ya think?

The models really struggle with inversions.  We came in well below expectations today.

I have 49 with fog developing here.  Feels pretty October like tonight.

[Deweydog]

20 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I agree, but that's what is forecast. I'm not buying it.

Offshore flow is pretty weak sauce and it would have to be timed really well to realize pretty much all the potential of the 24c 925mb temps.

[The Blob]

57 in Troudale, phone app says it's foggy outside. We also have a dense fog advisory till noon.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Offshore flow is pretty weak sauce and it would have to be timed really well to realize pretty much all the potential of the 24c 925mb temps.

Real weak on the 1.33km WRF even through most of tomorrow.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, The Blob said:

57 in Troudale, phone app says it's foggy outside. We also have a dense fog advisory till noon.

Dense Frog Advisory Well there it is. No 85 or even 80 today!