October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously the mountains are going to see a huge drop in temps with the coming system.

A taste of fall!!

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Really surprising how little rain the coming trough is going to provide given how it morphs into a closed low over the area.  Looks like it will provide a solid kick down in temps though.  Looking like some lows in the 30s are in store.

18Z GEFS shows that the 850mb warmth is the real story through next week.    

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

A taste of fall!!

There is just something that intrigues the hell out of me that our first taste will be from a system that was born in Siberia.  Anyone who doubts that can just follow the progression of the system.  At this point what happens afterward isn't a huge concern to me as long as it doesn't drag on forever.  Besides....the system slated to come in wasn't even shown on any model a few days ago.  Things can change fast.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There is just something that intrigues the hell out of me that our first taste will be from a system that was born in Siberia.  Anyone who doubts that can just follow the progression of the system.  At this point what happens afterward isn't a huge concern to me as long as it doesn't drag on forever.  Besides....the system slated to come in wasn't even shown on any model a few days ago.  Things can change fast.

Just curious... where else would our cold air come from other than from the north and west which ultimately is Siberia and/or Alaska upstream?   Seems like its a given because weather systems generally move from west to east.  

This is the coldest point of the GEFS and EPS runs...

[BLI snowman]

29 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think 16-17 was snowier than 78-79 at this location at least. Wasn't there an ice storm in January 1979? 

Yep, big one on the 10th. 1-2" of ice.

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, big one on the 10th. 1-2" of ice.

Was it the entire Metro area or just east Metro?

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GEFS shows that the 850mb warmth is the real story through next week.    

Pulled the boat today, but going to keep the jetski in a bit longer in case I can sneak over to the lake and play one more time! 

[Dave]

7 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Probably wolf spiders.

Envy. I haven’t had any beautiful large spiders in my home in years.

It's a giant house spider. Not native but only lives in the pnw part of north America. Totally harmless but pretty scary. It's actually the fastest spider in the world. 

[Dave]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That one's Eratigena Atrica, otherwise known as the 'Giant House Spider'. And they get that name for a reason.... These gigantified, but quite harmless, cousins of the Hobo Spider can surpass 3" in length (I've seen one this big before, they can be truly intimidating.)

And just like the Hobo Spider, Eratigena Atrica migrated from England via cargo ships in the 19th century. Our very similar climate is ideal for them. In fact, our drier, warmer summers compared to England make the PNW an even more hospitable place for these critters. Again, they're completely harmless, and while technically invasive, they don't seem to be placing any undue strain on the ecosystem. Oh and they're kind of an anti-bug cheat code for the inside of your home. Love these guys...super useful and honestly quite fun to observe.

Didn't see your post before my previous reply. You are absolutely correct with everything. I actually love spiders, especially the jumpers.

[Dave]

Here's a smaller version of the same species I caught today inside my house. My home was built in the early 70's and spiders love it.

 

[MossMan]

Meet Fred, my shop spider! 

[TacomaWx]

61/54 today coolest max of the season…but not much of a negative departure with the mild overnight low. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Was it the entire Metro area or just east Metro?

Entire metro but significantly more east of the West Hills.

[Dave]

75 degrees. No smoke. Pretty sweet for Oct 5th.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like 61-54 here so far today.  Could improve on that min with the clear skies now.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ECMWF suite of models is a bit more aggressive with the trough than the 12z.  Digs a bit better.  The operational and ensemble mean also kick the offshore cutoff low a bit further west.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

On 10/3/2022 at 4:20 PM, snow_wizard said:

1942 did just that and it has to be called an analog at this point.

The analogs I was looking at last month pointed to January as being really favorable for cold and snow here in the PNW. Adding 1942 further adds to that. January 21, 1943 still holds the record for most snowfall in a 24 hour period for PDX with 15.5" in downtown. If there is ever a winter where we finally score big in January this might be it.

[Deweydog]

Models 60 years ago right now were probably starting to look VERY interesting.

[T-Town]

Finally cleared here. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

That's a strong signal to get Arctic air down here to the PNW. 

[Doinko]

22 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The analogs I was looking at last month pointed to January as being really favorable for cold and snow here in the PNW. Adding 1942 further adds to that. January 21, 1943 still holds the record for most snowfall in a 24 hour period for PDX with 15.5" in downtown. If there is ever a winter where we finally score big in January this might be it.

And PDX dropped to 3 degrees afterwards!
What analogs are you looking at? I know analogs aren't perfect they're still fun to look at.

[Kayla]

In some better news, the seasonal ECMWF looks really good with NPAC blocking November through March but especially in January!

[Phil]

This might actually be the warmest GEFS run yet.

A d**n impressive signal.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

In some better news, the seasonal ECMWF looks really good with NPAC blocking November through March but especially in January!

Not to be a deb, but verbatim 2m temps are warmer than average in that pattern. Not enough blocking for a cold month.

Though this model can be warm biased at range, so maybe it’s underestimating it.

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Not to be a deb, but verbatim 2m temps are warmer than average in that pattern. Not enough blocking for a cold month.

Ah but you know well that the ECMWF seasonal has a warm bias and surface temps at that kind of range is kind of silly to look at. The upper level pattern looks very promising.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Ah but you know well that the ECMWF seasonal has a warm bias and surface temps at that kind of range is kind of silly to look at. The upper level pattern looks very promising.

Hard to tell, but I actually don’t think there’s enough blocking on that 500mb map. The NPAC ridge is relatively broad/flat and there’s a vortex over the Canadian Archipelago.

Of course it’s all meaningless at this range anyway. Unlikely the end result will look exactly like that.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Hard to tell, but I actually don’t think there’s enough blocking on that 500mb map. The NPAC ridge is relatively broad/flat and there’s a vortex over the Canadian Archipelago.

Of course it’s all meaningless at this range anyway. Unlikely the end result will look exactly like that.

Honestly the fact that it is showing near average temps for me that month makes me think we might have a January 1937 incoming!! -25F departure on the month that year with an average temp of -1F!

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Honestly the fact that it is showing near average temps for me that month makes me think we might have a January 1937 incoming!! -25F departure on the month that year with an average temp of -1F!

Salem saw 25" of snow in one day on Feb 1st!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Crazy that it’s only the 5th and the warmest October on record is already basically a foregone conclusion.

[Deweydog]

Fun shot of some chemtrails attacking the moon.

[Gradient Keeper]

5 hours ago, Kayla said:

I was honestly never onboard with that trough digging that far west. There hasn't been any ensemble support for it. Either way, still no real change in the pattern through at least mid month it would seem.

Watch 00z runs tonight not only dig further west, but hold the chilly trough over us Day 6-10.

00z GFS in 43 minutes

[Phishy Wx]

Jan 1937 huh?

Holy Cow Turds!!!!

 

Sum	543	71	-	-	1701	0	1.94	36.0	-
Average	17.5	2.3	9.9	-19.7	-	-	-	-	11.5
Normal	34.5	24.7	29.6	-	1097	0	1.97	12.3
1937-01-01	22	7	14.5	-13.7	50	0	0.00	0.0	3
1937-01-02	18	4	11.0	-17.2	54	0	0.01	0.1	3
1937-01-03	26	4	15.0	-13.3	50	0	T	T	2
1937-01-04	38	20	29.0	0.6	36	0	0.11	T	2
1937-01-05	20	4	12.0	-16.5	53	0	0.11	3.3	5
1937-01-06	10	-2	4.0	-24.6	61	0	0.00	0.0	5
1937-01-07	7	-7	0.0	-28.7	65	0	0.00	0.0	5
1937-01-08	7	-10	-1.5	-30.3	66	0	0.02	0.0	5
1937-01-09	18	5	11.5	-17.4	53	0	0.08	1.2	6
1937-01-10	22	1	11.5	-17.5	53	0	0.06	1.0	7
1937-01-11	14	-1	6.5	-22.6	58	0	T	T	7
1937-01-12	11	-5	3.0	-26.2	62	0	T	0.1	7
1937-01-13	20	6	13.0	-16.3	52	0	0.23	5.0	11
1937-01-14	16	12	14.0	-15.4	51	0	0.15	1.0	12
1937-01-15	22	13	17.5	-12.0	47	0	0.18	3.8	13
1937-01-16	13	-1	6.0	-23.6	59	0	0.06	T	13
1937-01-17	18	2	10.0	-19.7	55	0	0.02	2.1	13
1937-01-18	20	2	11.0	-18.8	54	0	T	T	13
1937-01-19	12	-12	0.0	-29.9	65	0	0.00	0.0	13
1937-01-20	6	-19	-6.5	-36.5	71	0	0.00	0.0	13
1937-01-21	5	-8	-1.5	-31.6	66	0	0.16	3.5	16
1937-01-22	11	-3	4.0	-26.2	61	0	0.02	1.1	16
1937-01-23	14	6	10.0	-20.3	55	0	0.10	2.8	17
1937-01-24	17	1	9.0	-21.4	56	0	T	0.5	16
1937-01-25	29	8	18.5	-12.0	46	0	0.24	2.4	17
1937-01-26	31	26	28.5	-2.1	36	0	0.11	3.4	18
1937-01-27	27	16	21.5	-9.2	43	0	0.18	2.0	18
1937-01-28	19	12	15.5	-15.2	49	0	0.04	2.7	21
1937-01-29	17	2	9.5	-21.3	55	0	0.00	0.0	21
1937-01-30	14	-3	5.5	-25.4	59	0	T	T	20
1937-01-31	19	-9	5.0	-26.0	60	0	0.06	T	19

[Kayla]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Watch 00z runs tonight not only dig further west, but hold the chilly trough over us Day 6-10.

00z GFS in 43 minutes

We can only hope! 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

We can only hope! 

I brought straws!

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Jan 1937 huh?

Holy Cow Turds!!!!

 

Sum	543	71	-	-	1701	0	1.94	36.0	-
Average	17.5	2.3	9.9	-19.7	-	-	-	-	11.5
Normal	34.5	24.7	29.6	-	1097	0	1.97	12.3
1937-01-01	22	7	14.5	-13.7	50	0	0.00	0.0	3
1937-01-02	18	4	11.0	-17.2	54	0	0.01	0.1	3
1937-01-03	26	4	15.0	-13.3	50	0	T	T	2
1937-01-04	38	20	29.0	0.6	36	0	0.11	T	2
1937-01-05	20	4	12.0	-16.5	53	0	0.11	3.3	5
1937-01-06	10	-2	4.0	-24.6	61	0	0.00	0.0	5
1937-01-07	7	-7	0.0	-28.7	65	0	0.00	0.0	5
1937-01-08	7	-10	-1.5	-30.3	66	0	0.02	0.0	5
1937-01-09	18	5	11.5	-17.4	53	0	0.08	1.2	6
1937-01-10	22	1	11.5	-17.5	53	0	0.06	1.0	7
1937-01-11	14	-1	6.5	-22.6	58	0	T	T	7
1937-01-12	11	-5	3.0	-26.2	62	0	T	0.1	7
1937-01-13	20	6	13.0	-16.3	52	0	0.23	5.0	11
1937-01-14	16	12	14.0	-15.4	51	0	0.15	1.0	12
1937-01-15	22	13	17.5	-12.0	47	0	0.18	3.8	13
1937-01-16	13	-1	6.0	-23.6	59	0	0.06	T	13
1937-01-17	18	2	10.0	-19.7	55	0	0.02	2.1	13
1937-01-18	20	2	11.0	-18.8	54	0	T	T	13
1937-01-19	12	-12	0.0	-29.9	65	0	0.00	0.0	13
1937-01-20	6	-19	-6.5	-36.5	71	0	0.00	0.0	13
1937-01-21	5	-8	-1.5	-31.6	66	0	0.16	3.5	16
1937-01-22	11	-3	4.0	-26.2	61	0	0.02	1.1	16
1937-01-23	14	6	10.0	-20.3	55	0	0.10	2.8	17
1937-01-24	17	1	9.0	-21.4	56	0	T	0.5	16
1937-01-25	29	8	18.5	-12.0	46	0	0.24	2.4	17
1937-01-26	31	26	28.5	-2.1	36	0	0.11	3.4	18
1937-01-27	27	16	21.5	-9.2	43	0	0.18	2.0	18
1937-01-28	19	12	15.5	-15.2	49	0	0.04	2.7	21
1937-01-29	17	2	9.5	-21.3	55	0	0.00	0.0	21
1937-01-30	14	-3	5.5	-25.4	59	0	T	T	20
1937-01-31	19	-9	5.0	-26.0	60	0	0.06	T	19

What a great analog. I'm down!

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Not to be a deb, but verbatim 2m temps are warmer than average in that pattern. Not enough blocking for a cold month.

Though this model can be warm biased at range, so maybe it’s underestimating it.

I just had to doubletake and make sure I didn't just scroll past Tim in a trench coat.

[Doinko]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

What a great analog. I'm down!

Portland had snow in April 1936 too!

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just had to doubletake and make sure I didn't just scroll past Tim in a trench coat.

Only one person uses "verbatim" like its going out of style

and - Tim would never say "not to be a deb" - he just debs

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Only one person uses "verbatim" like its going out of style

and - Tim would never say "not to be a deb" - he just debs

I just saw the "bUt aCkShYuALLy" warm EPS map and neuron activation ensued

[Gradient Keeper]

If the trough fizzles we just went from "Cold enough for Socks!"(c)Rob 2016? to "Warm enough for Sandals!"(c)Rob 2022. Better luck next month.

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 16 minutes