October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[SilverFallsAndrew]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1987-88 was near complete sh*t further north, but like a lot of El Ninos it had a pretty decent and extended cold stretch for NW OR and SW WA from mid December to mid January following the early December jet extension. No major airmasses but just persistently chilly with a number of modest snowfalls.

Hmmmm. Silver Falls had 28 consecutive sub-40 highs from December 11-January 7th. 

In the Willamette valley it was colder than any Dec/Jan combo since 2016-17.

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Cloud]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you trying to do your own Jim Jinx?  

A lightbulb went ding right at the top of my head as I saw the post. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

A lightbulb went ding right at the top of my head as I saw the post. 

If you are planning to try and cancel out Jim's jinx with your own reverse jinx... it won't work.   No one has the jinx super powers of Jim.   He overrides all others.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If you are planning to try and cancel out Jim's jinx with your own reverse jinx... it won't work.   No one has the jinx super powers of Jim.   He overrides all others.   

He is a wizard, after all!

[TacomaWx]

67 after a low of 50. Looks nasty and murky out there. Should hit 70 today. 

[T-Town]

42 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Haven’t been to montana since I was like 8 years old…never been to Wyoming. So it’ll basically be a whole new experience. 

I saw most of the national parks in the western US as a kid, back in the early 70s. My dad was a science teacher and got paid to go to summer school at the university of Wyoming as part of the “oh crap the Russians are winning the space race” episode at that time. 
 

Laramie was an awesome place to spend the summer when you’re eight years old and we would camp all the way there and then camp at a bunch of parks on the way home. It instilled in me a love for that stuff and we took our kids to a number of parks when they were young and it did the same for them. 
 

I haven’t made it back to Yellowstone since those days but definitely looking forward to doing so eventually. You will love it. 

[Cloud]

72 and hazy at 2pm. 

RIP below normal streak. 4th day this month with 70+F. Half way through the record. 

[MossMan]

56 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

All of our rain has gone to the land down under. 

[NWbyNW]

63F degrees, cool breeze, and mostly foggy. You can sort of see some blue from the sky and eventually this fog will burn off.  Nearest stations to me show a 64F and a 65F.  Downtown Everett says 65F.

[NWbyNW]

Our forecasters are starting to get concerned by the lack of rain... 

Western Washington has now been added to the "Moderate Drought" category. Watch this continue to worsen in a time of the year where this shouldn't even be a concern.  

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phil]

EPS weeklies also backed off any transition to a wet pattern this month. Does still have the stormy Nov w/ -NAO/-NAM.

[Phishy Wx]

This is how fall should look. (Grandfather Mtn, NC)

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS weeklies also backed off any transition to a wet pattern this month. Does still have the stormy Nov w/ -NAO/-NAM.

All going according to plan

[Brennan]

Drought... In the west. Lake Whatcom still full. What gives?

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Brennan said:

Drought... In the west. Lake Whatcom still full. What gives?

Minor drought conditions for now in western WA.   And we had near record breaking rain last fall and again this spring and a snowpack that was way above normal in late spring.  Our natural lakes stay full almost all of the time.    I suppose if we had no snow in the mountains this winter then we might start seeing some effects next summer.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you trying to do your own Jim Jinx?  

Maybe.  But my powers are not as strong as his. 

[ShawniganLake]

Smoky/hazy and 80F here.  On October 6th.  Feels odd. 

[TT-SEA]

The Ag Weather update today begins with a really interesting explanation of the QBO and AAM and how it impacts ENSO.    And why we might finally begin to see this Nina fade later in the year and which ultimately should mean less blocking and a more robust jet stream.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4YG6QVifD1I

[Deweydog]

78 here but 87 just up the road at 1100’.

[Phishy Wx]

78 here too

[LowerGarfield]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

78 here too

79F currently. Warm but not bad at all. On repeat again.

[snow_wizard]

Man is this pattern frustrating.  No matter what kind of reconfiguration we see it pops right back to Western Ridge / Eastern trough.  There has to be a reckoning at some point.  Pretty much anytime I've see anything like this in the late summer /autumn period we come out of it in grand style with either cold or crazy amounts of rain.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Smoky/hazy and 80F here.  On October 6th.  Feels odd. 

I was going to say it smells like an ashtray out there today.  The air quality is just plain gross.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Man is this pattern frustrating.  No matter what kind of reconfiguration we see it pops right back to Western Ridge / Eastern trough.  There has to be a reckoning at some point.  Pretty much anytime I've see anything like this in the late summer /autumn period we come out of it in grand style with either cold or crazy amounts of rain.

Eventually, yes.

[snow_wizard]

The MJO wave is just 2 days from really getting its act together now.  Hopefully that will give the pattern a kick in the arse when it gets into a favorable region.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Eventually, yes.

I actually think the longer it waits the more dramatic the transition will be.  That having been said we are already in uncharted waters so this could get crazy.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Brennan said:

Drought... In the west. Lake Whatcom still full. What gives?

The drought is only short term so far.  We had a ton of water going into this.

[TT-SEA]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I actually think the longer it waits the more dramatic the transition will be.  That having been said we are already in uncharted waters so this could get crazy.

Or it might not follow any of these expectations.   Maybe we follow 2002-03?   The July - November period in 2002 was crazy dry.  

[TT-SEA]

It looks like the inversion should not be much of a factor for the next 4 days.    The models show a little more offshore flow and less low clouds than today from tomorrow through Monday.

The ECMWF shows the next 4 days being 4-6 degrees warmer than today.    It assumed more of an inversion today with a high of 68 at SEA.     The actual high has been at least 73.    The next 4 days should be in the mid to upper 70s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Or it might not follow any of these expectations.   Maybe we follow 2002-03?   The July - November period in 2002 was crazy dry.  

Step one would be for you stop jinxing everything that shows up in the models past day 7.   It doesn't count if the models show a major change and it actually never happens.    

 

If we are going to transition to total crap we could at least do a January 1953 redux. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we are going to transition to total crap we could at least do a January 1953 redux. 

Actually would not surprise me to see a run of ridiculous rain at some point in the next 3 months.     And that would probably set the stage for another hot, dry summer next year.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I actually think the longer it waits the more dramatic the transition will be.  That having been said we are already in uncharted waters so this could get crazy.

So… dramatic transition in two or three years?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually would not surprise me to see a run of ridiculous rain at some point in the next 3 months.     And that would probably set the stage for another hot, dry summer next year.  

Uh huh...

[Phishy Wx]

feels like something extreme (winter wise) has to come out of this.

 

like a deep freeze off the charts January.

 

or it could be more of the same with 'extreme' mildness

 

oof

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF weeklies have below normal EPO right into late November which means a weak PJ will continue.  Kind of makes coming out of this with cold more likely than wet.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we are going to transition to total crap we could at least do a January 1953 redux. 

None of these years you guys are throwing out there was a Nina, let alone a third year Nina.  A dramatic shift of some type is the most likely outcome after this.  I would call going to normal after this the least likely of all.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

feels like something extreme (winter wise) has to come out of this.

 

like a deep freeze off the charts January.

 

or it could be more of the same with 'extreme' mildness

 

oof

Nature loves to do reversals.  We are in a top 5% dry period now.  Way out of whack.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

None of these years you guys are throwing out there was a Nina, let alone a third year Nina.  A dramatic shift of some type is the most likely outcome after this.  I would call going to normal after this the least likely of all.

Not sure Nina matters.   Sure doesn't feel like it matters.    And we might be transitioning towards a Nino starting in December and January.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

None of these years you guys are throwing out there was a Nina, let alone a third year Nina.  A dramatic shift of some type is the most likely outcome after this.  I would call going to normal after this the least likely of all.

I don't disagree with you Jim. But I am just kind of done arguing with Tim. He's reveling in this BS right now, and he is going to rub it in as long as he can. Hopefully the worm turns and we can throw it back at him in a few months, but who knows. He could be right and continue to taunt, troll, and make our lives a living hell until eternity.