Timmy Supercell Posted May 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Here are the Eugene, OR rainfall stats, in case anyone needs evidence that the recent "record wet" weather is confined mostly to SEA, Tim's house and a few other locations in the far NW part of Washington State: EUG Rainfall 2013 - 21.19 (-23.37)2014 - 41.30 (-3.26)2015 - 32.24 (-12.32)2016 - 19.93 (-2.81) Now let's not start forgetting PDX and even other metro cities in that area. PDX set their record wettest winter and wettest December ever. That would include beating the '95-'96 winter during the infamous floods. When I took the amtrak to the station in early December and visited Wilsonville, it seemed equally as wet there too. And if my memory serves me well, didn't PDX set their record wettest winter back in February? I recall Mark posting something about a record around a month before the season was over. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 This winter was anomalously wet from about Salem/Albany northward. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 The 12Z Canadian is much more ridgy for the weekend. Huge differences between the GFS and the Canadian just a few days out. The 12Z Canadian is also much more ridgy for Sunday/Monday than its own 00Z run... so its not even trending toward a compromise but actually going farther away from the GFS. Here is Sunday afternoon from the 12Z Canadian: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_108_0000.gif And Monday afternoon: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif Compared to the 12Z GFS for Sunday and Monday afternoons: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_108_500_vort_ht.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 This winter was anomalously wet from about Salem/Albany northward.Further north, it was wet here, but not record setting in southern BC. Even more north, Prince Rupert on the BC north coast was very dry. I believe they were around 60% of normal precip during the November-March period with only 30". Seattle probably had more than that....maybe the jet stream is sinking south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 It's a bit misleading to talk about 2015-2016 being an overall anomalously wet winter for Portland or Salem without acknowledging that the amounts are skewed by a couple of crazy-wet storms during a brief period in early-mid December. Otherwise, their overall winter totals would be only slightly wetter than average. Eugene missed out on most of that December action. Then why was the Dec-Feb period also record wettest for Portland? There were some soaking fronts in January and February too. If you thought late winter was like 2014 or 2015 you're wrong. Nothing is being skewed here. And there was also a record of consecutive rainy days set in December (21 in 2016. 20 was the previous record in 2001). There's no way a couple storms in the 1st week of Dec can dictate a wettest winter. That's just not possible.https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2016/02/17/wettest-winter-on-record-at-pdx/ Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 This winter was anomalously wet from about Salem/Albany northward. More like Redding northward, actually. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 The 12Z ECMWF says that the Central Sound is the only place that really gets pounded with rain with the weekend system. This is just one 3-hour frame from Saturday evening. http://s33.postimg.org/7wj9x4a5a/mem1.jpg Then is much more ridgy for Monday than its 00Z run with 500mb heights up to 576DM. Why not dump rain just on the area of the region that has been the wettest place this year? Nature needs to spread it around more. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Sure do like the look of the first weekend of June. Starting to plan accordingly. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-c93VXr.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 More like Redding northward, actually. DJF16PNormNWSWR.pngWow many areas of central and eastern Washington received >150% of normal while most of central and eastern Oregon struggled to get above average. 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 That map is helpful. It would be even more helpful if it extended into Canada to show that the northern boundary of above-normal precipitation occurred about where this map ends. I stand corrected on the width of the band of above-normal precipitation, and I see that Eugene was in a relatively dry zone compared to the U.S. PNW at large. I still say the big December storms skewed the overall numbers way upward, and one of the comments on the linked blog supports this notion. Up here we were basically near normal.. 96% of normal at Abbotsford for October-March. Having said that, there were some areas that were wetter relative to normal, particularly near the mountains to our north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Its been wet overall for the last couple years from PDX northward. The difference between up here and down there is dramatic. Its in the top 5 wettest 2-year period ever for Seattle and 2016 is off to the races again so far. I can't help but think this north/south gradient is somewhat related to a warming climate and a slowly northward migrating jet stream.Poleward migrating Hadley Cells are to be expected in a warming climate (chicken/egg aside), but only about 8-11% of the observed poleward migration can be attributed to the aforementioned warming. The vast majority of the shift requires another explanation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 More like Redding northward, actually. DJF16PNormNWSWR.png Love these maps. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Love these maps. They are absolutey breathtaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 They are absolutey breathtaking.Totally. I have one framed on my living room wall. I just like all the different time frames and areas you can plug in on that site. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Excellent support from the ECMWF ensembles for its operational run showing strong ridging later next week. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls03/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls03-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-vSBem_.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 25, 2016 Report Share Posted May 25, 2016 Today's another little overachiever. With the last two days of the month trending well above normal now, a record warm May could still be on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Today's another little overachiever. With the last two days of the month trending well above normal now, a record warm May could still be on the table. Here's where all the major stations stand. BLI: 1 degree below recordSEA: .4 degree below recordOLM: 1.8 degree below recordPDX: .8 degree below recordDowntown Portland: 2.9 degrees below recordSLE: .5 degree below recordEUG: 1.5 degree below record Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 The "blob" is taking a beating. Maybe the upcoming +PNA episode can grant it a temporary stay. http://www.coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Yeah.... the 'blob' is going to make a strong come back in June. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Yeah.... the 'blob' is going to make a strong come back in June.I wouldn't say "strong" comeback, especially if that trough ends up in the GOA vs south of the Aleutians. I'm not sure it matters in the end, regardless. Just fun to track. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 I wouldn't say "strong" comeback, especially if that trough ends up in the GOA vs south of the Aleutians. I'm not sure it matters in the end, regardless. Just fun to track. Probably not... but I suspect it will take until probably October for the PDO to go negative. Maybe November. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Probably not... but I suspect it will take until probably October for the PDO to go negative. Maybe November.Could be even later. That central Pacific cold pool will take longer to erode than the warm waters along the west coast, which will probably cool fairly quickly during mid/late summer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Update on the next month. Looks like a fun ride. The next two weeks look very Niño/+AAM, forcing wise. Will probably get westerly anomalies back over the Equatorial Pacific for a bit, with a +PNA tendency looking likely for the first 15-20 days of June, before a significant transition thereafter. As alluded to beforehand, the next IO/MT wave is already showing up in the long range, with subsidence progged to begin to propagating over the Pacific during mid-June. A consensus is growing for a legitimate flip in the forcing/AAM state beginning in late June. So, expect a transition into a Niña/-PNA circulation sometime in the final week of June. Here's a nice illustration of the forcing in reference. Green indicates lift/divergence aloft (anomalous convection) while orange indicates subsidence/convergence aloft (anomalous sinking). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052518&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Update on the next month. Looks like a fun ride. The next two weeks look very Niño/+AAM, forcing wise. Will probably get westerly anomalies back over the Equatorial Pacific for a bit, with a +PNA tendency looking likely for the first 15-20 days of June, before a significant transition thereafter. As alluded to beforehand, the next IO/MT wave is already showing up in the long range, with subsidence progged to begin to propagating over the Pacific during mid-June. A consensus is growing for a legitimate flip in the forcing/AAM state beginning in late June. So, expect a transition into a Niña/-PNA circulation sometime in the final week of June. Here's a nice illustration of the forcing in reference. Green indicates lift/divergence aloft (anomalous convection) while orange indicates subsidence/convergence aloft (anomalous sinking). http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=global&pkg=chi200&runtime=2016052518&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=0 Nice shot of the Easterlies during their peak wind burst http://i.imgur.com/LGdIVZl.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 00Z GFS digging in its heels for Memorial Day. Completely different than the Canadian or ECMWF... but given that we are basically 4 days away and trending stronger makes me think its right. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_111_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Come on GFS! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 00Z Canadian for Monday afternoon: http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Man, epic pattern by June standards on the clown range GFS. Incredible jet extension preceding the flip to -AAM/-PNA. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 What's the weather supposed to do Monday? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 What's the weather supposed to do Monday?Upset some, while making some happy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 What's the weather supposed to do Monday? Looks mostly sunny on the 00Z ECMWF... highs in the low to mid 70s. Memorial Day perfection for most everyone if it works out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 The Strait of Georgia has sure warmed up quickly with this pattern. Widespread 16~17C (60F+) pockets are starting to appear; typically it continues getting warmer until about early/mid August and cools down quickly in the fall. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/washngtn.fc.gif 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Starting to look like next week might not be so warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Starting to look like next week might not be so warm.Well shoot. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Well shoot. Memorial Day looks great... so we have that! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 And the 12Z ECMWF still looks very warm for next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Warmest spring on record so far in many places. There has been plenty for you to be happy about. Warm weather is like crack for some people. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 And the 12Z ECMWF still looks very warm for next week. 80s will be widespread next week for several days on either model. I'd say that qualifies as a warm week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 In fact... the 12Z ECMWF is much warmer than even its own 00Z run for next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 26, 2016 Report Share Posted May 26, 2016 Warm weather is like crack for some people. There are a good many folks on this forum that need to be shipped to Colombia as soon as possible. Lots of both there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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