July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

Was a beautiful day again. Was up near Bellingham enjoying the weather. High of 86° in Sammamish.

 

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

What on Earth is going on with the Atlantic this year?  Absolutely nothing happening and nothing in sight.  I think the Atlantic is highly overrated for tropical storms.  It's like everything has to be so absolutely perfect for anything to happen there.  With colder ENSO they should be seeing some action at least.

[Phil]

What on Earth is going on with the Atlantic this year? Absolutely nothing happening and nothing in sight. I think the Atlantic is highly overrated for tropical storms. It's like everything has to be so absolutely perfect for anything to happen there. With colder ENSO they should be seeing some action at least.

Long gone is the decade of the 2000s, where you could sneeze and a hurricane would form in the Atlantic. Amazing stretch without a major hurricane landfall in the US. It should be noted, however, that activity doesn't pick up substantially in the Atlantic until the second half of August.

 

The multidomainal circulation associated with the dropping of the AMO/AMM in recent years is also responsible for the reduced ACE out of the Atlantic since 2012. We're nearing a bunch of multidecadal flips, so not too surprising to see the 1998-2012 regime end.

[GobBluth]

There's a good chance (not certain) we'll see the Niña strengthen from late winter into/through next summer, with an off-climo peak in spring/summer, with a secondary peak next winter. Also might be an early start to winter in the US, weird NAM/PV progression, so on.

 

Not going to be kind to long range forecasting. Might be the Donald Trump version of weather/climate upcoming.

Come on now, not that crazy. 

[James Jones]

We just had back to back record warm Octobers down here. 2014 and 2015.

 

2003 was also a top warm October.

Jim is actually right though, overall October hasn't warmed as much as other months have, and the late October 2003 cold snap was the start of an awesome 10 week stretch of weather. I have a graph of the per decade averages highs of the old downtown Portland station here:

 

http://i.imgur.com/B1vt2P5.png?1

 

And PDX:

 

http://i.imgur.com/HCCeeiL.png?1

 

I didn't bother getting the lows because the UHI environment changed too much over the life of these stations (which has some effect on the highs too of course).

[TT-SEA]

68 at SEA already at 8 a.m.

 

Going to be a warm day.  

[Front Ranger]

Jim is actually right though, overall October hasn't warmed as much as other months have, and the late October 2003 cold snap was the start of an awesome 10 week stretch of weather. I have a graph of the per decade averages highs of the old downtown Portland station here:

 

http://i.imgur.com/B1vt2P5.png?1

 

And PDX:

 

http://i.imgur.com/HCCeeiL.png?1

 

I didn't bother getting the lows because the UHI environment changed too much over the life of these stations (which has some effect on the highs too of course).

 

November/December the two months with the least amount of change over time (December actually a little cooling). Not much of a trend for April, either.

 

1890s was quite the chilly decade.

[Jesse]

November/December the two months with the least amount of change over time (December actually a little cooling). Not much of a trend for April, either.

 

1890s was quite the chilly decade.

 

The nice index (NI) was through the roof though, apparently.

[James Jones]

November/December the two months with the least amount of change over time (December actually a little cooling). Not much of a trend for April, either.

 

1890s was quite the chilly decade.

Yeah, I find it interesting that some months have warmed so dramatically while others have seen essentially no change at all. I'd love to know why but I won't even pretend to have an explanation. It basically means that fall used to be a longer season here, with September being a legit fall month (these days it leans more towards summer) and the coldest month being January. Now things are more compressed, with fall being a quick crash from mid-late September through the end of November.

 

Also amazing that February used to be as cold or colder than December, whereas now December is colder by a significant margin. Again, I don't know why things have shifted to such an early peak for winter, but it has.

 

And the 1890s were indeed very cold. Even relative to its era, that decade stands out a lot more than the 1950s, at least in Portland.

[Phil]

The nice index (NI) was through the roof though, apparently.

[TT-SEA]

Nice weekend on the 12Z GFS... but also shows a potent system for Monday into Tuesday morning.     Would be nice to get some rain from that and the timing is good as well.

[stuffradio]

D****T, lol.

Fixed for you.

 

People are now forecasting weak Nina/Modoki for this ENSO event.

[Geos]

Up to 71° here already. Probably looking at upper 80s later.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 71° here already. Probably looking at upper 80s later.

 

Only 71 right now?

 

79 here at this time.

[stuffradio]

In order to appear hipper and smarter than everyone else, you should just have said "NI" without explaining what it means.

 

Hope someone gets to work soon on correlating NI with QBO, NAO, PDO, PNA, ENSO, IO, AO, etc.  Not to mention SUP.

The PNWSI is going to fluctuate this year. Hopefully it is highly positive by the end of the winter with the state of the ENSO, PNA, EPO and WPO.

[Phil]

Fixed for you.

 

People are now forecasting weak Nina/Modoki for this ENSO event.

I assume they all live in the east or midwest?

[Geos]

Only 71 right now?

 

79 here at this time.

 

At 10am it was at that reading. Now my thermometer says 77°.

[Deweydog]

Only 71 right now?

 

79 here at this time.

Up to 96 here.

[TT-SEA]

77 at SEA... and they have a +4 bump already with the low of 61.

[Jesse]

74 at PDX on the hour.

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles sure look troughy overall.

[Front Ranger]

I assume they all live in the east or midwest?

 

The Midwest has done pretty well with most Ninas. At least the upper part.

[Phil]

SEA is still only +0.8 on the month. Probably finishes around +1 at best, considering we're through 27 days and a +5 moves the needle by just ~0.1.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is strong with the Monday system... dumps heavy rain from Seattle eastward on Monday evening.

[Phil]

The Midwest has done pretty well with most Ninas. At least the upper part.

Could have specified Ohio Valley/Lower Midwest.

[Front Ranger]

Warmest day of the month. Expect heavy posting/updates from Tim, even by his standards. 

[TT-SEA]

Warmest day of the month. Expect heavy posting/updates from Tim, even by his standards. 

Did not post much yesterday about it. SEA will likely end up +6 or +7 on the day. No real surprises expected.

[Front Ranger]

SEA is still only +0.8 on the month. Probably finishes around +1 at best, considering we're through 27 days and a +5 moves the needle by just ~0.1.

 

Should end up in the 0 to +1 range for most of the region. Essentially a normal month.

[Jesse]

Should end up in the 0 to +1 range for most of the region. Essentially a normal month.

PDX still has a shot at ending up slightly below if Saturday and Sunday end up coolish.

[Jesse]

Nice day.

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro depicts a series of troughs affecting the PNW. Not all a direct hit, but each one promoting onshore flow and weather generally at or below normal.

[TT-SEA]

Latest update... the Nina is looking less impressive lately.     Or at least its not really progressing.   I know the response will be that a quick turnaround is coming soon but we have been hearing that for several weeks.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

 

 

Compare to July of 1988...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/July.88.anomaly.gif

[Deweydog]

Latest update... the Nina is looking less impressive lately. Or at least its not really progressing. I know the response will be that a quick turnaround is coming soon but we have been hearing that for several weeks.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif

 

 

Compare to July of 1988...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/July.88.anomaly.gif

We MAY need to start an ENSO thread.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro depicts a series of troughs affecting the PNW. Not all a direct hit, but each one promoting onshore flow and weather generally at or below normal.

Beat goes on... 8 of the next 10 days will probably be close to normal or above normal in Seattle.

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks great.

[Geos]

Up to 81° now. 

 

The GFS's take on the early week system...

 

[Phil]

July 30th to August 4th:

 

[Front Ranger]

Beat goes on... 8 of the next 10 days will probably be close to normal or above normal in Seattle.

 

I'd say there's a good chance most the region is below normal after the first week of August. Probably not by much, but definitely more likely than above normal.

 

The pattern does not look the same as the past couple weeks.

[TT-SEA]

I'd say there's a good chance most the region is below normal after the first week of August. Probably not by much, but definitely more likely than above normal.

 

The pattern does not look the same as the past couple weeks.

 

 

Yes... I said the beat goes on.    

 

Regionally cool... Puget Sound region not cooler than normal overall.

 

It might be different.... or sort of different.... but the result appears to be the same.   Monday and Tuesday are clearly below normal in Seattle.   The rest of the days shown on the ECMWF detailed maps are at or a little above normal around here.       And yet... it will likely be cooler than normal in Portland with their higher averages and an equalizing pattern and definitely cooler than normal east of the Cascades.

 

Actually... Wednesday-Sunday of next week sort of looks like last week.   SEA could be in the 80s on a couple days.   Definitely not a cooler than normal pattern here.   The only real difference is the strong system on Monday afternoon into Tuesday which actually brings rain to Seattle and that will be cooler than normal for sure.

 

This pattern later next week is not that troughy..    And as Jesse pointed out... the morning run shows cooler 850mb temps than the evening run this time of year.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zbN0fy.png

[Geos]

Coming up on 85° now.

 

Will be nice to get some rain. Keep the lawns from getting too brown.