August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Nice day.

[TT-SEA]

Matt had another way of pointing out the same thing to Jesse.   

 

 

Funny how troughing is simply seen as a mechanism to "set us up" for more ridging, while when we have ridging suddenly persistence becomes the word of the day.

 

 

Are you cutting yourself while typing this?
 

[Front Ranger]

Last summer definitely turned cooler and more dynamic as we got later in the season and into September. Sort of the opposite of this year so far. And ENSO is opposite as well.

I'd say this August is turning out to be a fairly dynamic month by August standards. Especially if it ends with strong troughing like it began.

[Front Ranger]

The majority of (-ENSO) Septembers following warm Augusts finished cooler than average. So, "history" would suggest that route is taken, as does model guidance.

5 of 8 was the number. With 3 of 5 being very cool. And then 2 extremely warm ones in 1967 and 1974.

 

Not a real strong signal, but definitely not a warm signal.

[TT-SEA]

I'd say this August is turning out to be a fairly dynamic month by August standards. Especially if it ends with strong troughing like it began.

Definitely dynamic.

 

I was talking about it being warmer in August than in July. Later summer went the other way.

[Front Ranger]

Well... the quick regime change surprised me back in June.

 

Since then it has not really surprised me.... I knew at that point in June the summer would be backloaded. The extent of the August heat was sort of surprising.

Wait...what?

[TT-SEA]

Wait...what?

 

 

Not again.    

 

OK... August has been completely shocking.   I was expecting 50s and rain every day.   

 

Good?  

[Timmy Supercell]

There's no telling what kind of September to look forward to. My hottest September on record was in 2012 in Klamath Falls (I happened to be out of the area until November so I could not witness that one...), and that summer was very cool overall. 

 

Average high in Sep 2012 was a shocking 82.2 at KLMT.

[Front Ranger]

Not again.

 

OK... August has been completely shocking. I was expecting 50s and rain every day.

 

Good?

I just didn't understand the "back loaded" part. Like you though Aug/Sep would be warmer anomaly -wise than Jun/Jul? Not what I remember...but you were all over the place in June.

[TT-SEA]

I just didn't understand the "back loaded" part. Like you though Aug/Sep would be warmer anomaly -wise than Jun/Jul? Not what I remember...but you were all over the place in June.

Back-loaded meaning summer would have it's normal pleasant peak from mid-July through much of September rather than peak in June and crash in August. Disregard anomalies... June was a pretty troughy month. So was early July. More normal than not here... so our true summery period started late as usual (compared to the rest of the country) and should go into September.

[FroYoBro]

Record weather events are noteworthy and worth talking about. That is a ridiculous stat. We have to listen to **** head moan about it for days if we get more than three consecutive days of rainfall, which is pretty normal for our climate.

 

I still think a permanent ban would be the best route to go with him. I will continue pushing hard for it.

 

What's next? Banning burqas in the public setting? 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is a robustly troughy run starting around Sunday.

 

Troughalicious as it were.  

 

Hope we can recover in the second week of September.  

[Jesse]

What's next? Banning burqas in the public setting?

False analogy.

 

He is the number 1 issue here. I know you probably think I'm just as bad, though, so probably not going to get much support.

[Phil]

The 12z ECMWF is literally a hurricane train in the Atlantic. It pops three of them in 10 days, about to spawn a 4th, also.

 

It's been so long.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z ECMWF is literally a hurricane train in the Atlantic. It pops three of them in 10 days, about to spawn a 4th, also.

 

It's been so long.

 

 

Still brings first tropical system up through Tampa like previous runs.  

[Phil]

Still brings first tropical system up through Tampa like previous runs.

I'm in Sarasota, FL through the weekend, so either something crazy will happen or nothing will happen at all.

[TT-SEA]

I'm in Sarasota, FL through the weekend, so either something crazy will happen or nothing will happen at all.

 

 

Ahhh... very interesting.   You might be in store for some excitement.  

[Deweydog]

False analogy.

 

He is the number 1 issue here. I know you probably think I'm just as bad, though, so probably not going to get much support.

The fact you're pushing for it seems really wrong to me. Bigoted, in a way. I think he brings up an interesting point.

[ShawniganLake]

The 12z ECMWF is literally a hurricane train in the Atlantic. It pops three of them in 10 days, about to spawn a 4th, also.

 

 

It's been so long.

The Atlantic wasn't going to stay quiet forever. Although it has been a pretty notably slow start.

[ShawniganLake]

83F here at 1230pm. Might make one last push for another 90 here today or tomorrow. I was thinking 88-89 would be the best we would do. It will likely be close.

[Jesse]

The fact you're pushing for it seems really wrong to me. Bigoted, in a way. I think he brings up an interesting point.

It has much more to do with his behavior and tone than they way he leans as far as weather preference.

 

Weren't you just saying a few days ago he was due for "sanctions"?

 

There are plenty of people here who enjoy warmth and aren't obsessive douchebags about it who constantly pollute the forum with endless bickering and trolling. I mean endless. Beyond obsessive. A constant barrage. He has almost double the posts of the next closest person. You know this is all true.

 

Granted, I may not be a model member but I believe I am not as bad as him.

[TT-SEA]

83F here at 1230pm. Might make one last push for another 90 here today or tomorrow. I was thinking 88-89 would be the best we would do. It will likely be close.

 

 

Only 77 at SEA... its been incredibly warm up there considering your average is lower.

[TT-SEA]

It has much more to do with his behavior and tone than they way he leans as far as weather preference.

 

Weren't you just saying a few days ago he was due for "sanctions"?

 

There are plenty of people here who enjoy warmth and aren't obsessive douchebags about it who constantly pollute the forum with endless bickering and trolling. I mean endless. Beyond obsessive. A constant barrage. He has almost double the posts of the next closest person. You know this is all true.

 

Granted, I may not be a model member but I believe I am not as bad as him.

 

 

Right.

 

Phil and I might go around in animated fashion lately... but we have a mutual respect and don't take it personally.   Keeping that in another thread was a good idea.   We need to stick to it more.   Epic debates though.   

 

I have barely said anything to you for months.  

[Deweydog]

It has much more to do with his behavior and tone than they way he leans as far as weather preference.

 

Weren't you just saying a few days ago he was due for "sanctions"?

 

There are plenty of people here who enjoy warmth and aren't obsessive douchebags about it who constantly pollute the forum with endless bickering and trolling. I mean endless. Beyond obsessive. A constant barrage. He has almost double the posts of the next closest person. You know this is all true.

 

Granted, I may not be a model member but I believe I am not as bad as him.

That was just an observation. Tim will typically perceive when he's pushing it and will tone it down/rationalize enough to bring down the heat. I don't care if he gets sanctioned or not. People can ignore him, laugh at him, throw pokemon at him.

 

Ultimately, this comes down to weather and preferences. If he was more aligned with yours you wouldn't give two shits.

[Geos]

We've definitely been in a pretty routine pattern this month. Cooler than normal about the beginning of the week and then it warms up gradually toward the end and gets hot again. Would be nice to get some rain to put the fires out. Can see the smoke drifting out of the Olympics right now.

[FroYoBro]

False analogy.

 

He is the number 1 issue here. I know you probably think I'm just as bad, though, so probably not going to get much support.

 

It was just a poor joke.

 

I do agree that he is probably the worst agitator on here, but at this point it seems pretty obvious that he will be allowed to stay. It seems silly to focus so much on his ban at this point. Just put him on ignore or do some yoga to relax yourself. 

[Front Ranger]

Back-loaded meaning summer would have it's normal pleasant peak from mid-July through much of September rather than peak in June and crash in August. Disregard anomalies... June was a pretty troughy month. So was early July. More normal than not here... so our true summery period started late as usual (compared to the rest of the country) and should go into September.

Ok.

 

Well, over the long haul, September isn't really more of a summer month than June for your area. As has been discussed, meteorological summer in the PNW is basically Jun 15 to Sep 15, with the most summery period being July 10 to August 20. The peak of summer does not extend well into September.

 

That's the climatology.

[Guest Winterdog]

It has much more to do with his behavior and tone than they way he leans as far as weather preference.

 

Weren't you just saying a few days ago he was due for "sanctions"?

 

There are plenty of people here who enjoy warmth and aren't obsessive douchebags about it who constantly pollute the forum with endless bickering and trolling. I mean endless. Beyond obsessive. A constant barrage. He has almost double the posts of the next closest person. You know this is all true.

 

Granted, I may not be a model member but I believe I am not as bad as him.

I agree with the bolded stuff. I don't give a crap what kind of weather he likes. I had Tim on ignore for a while but he authors nearly half the posts on here it seems. Plus he adds a lot of insight when he's not trolling Jim or Phil. It's the snarky little sidebars that he throws out all the time that just drive me nuts. I'm not for banning anyone but it would be much nicer if he would curb his trolling.

[Jesse]

I agree with the bolded stuff. I don't give a crap what kind of weather he likes. I had Tim on ignore for a while but he authors nearly half the posts on here it seems. Plus he adds a lot of insight when he's not trolling Jim or Phil. It's the snarky little sidebars that he throws out all the time that just drive me nuts. I'm not for banning anyone but it would be much nicer if he would curb his trolling.

I would agree here.

 

Unfortunately he has proven time and time again he lacks the self control to curb his own trolling. It always takes some sort of exterior threat, after which he usually reverts to a pathetic, saccharine-sweet "friendly" tone that lasts a few weeks or so before gradually reverting back to his old ways. I personally have probably watched this cycle a dozen or more times since joining this forum nearly a decade ago. It is as predictable as the seasons.

[TT-SEA]

I would agree here.

 

Unfortunately he has proven time and time again he lacks the self control to curb his own trolling. It always takes some sort of exterior threat, after which he usually reverts to a pathetic, saccharine-sweet "friendly" tone that lasts a few weeks or so before gradually reverting back to his old ways. I personally have probably watched this cycle a dozen or more times since joining this forum nearly a decade ago. It is as predictable as the seasons.

 

Your snarky comments are just as prevalent.   

 

Like this morning.   I made a genuine observation on my September thoughts and we get 10 posts from you about how ridging is always due... dripping with sarcasm.   Like I control it.    

[TT-SEA]

I agree with the bolded stuff. I don't give a crap what kind of weather he likes. I had Tim on ignore for a while but he authors nearly half the posts on here it seems. Plus he adds a lot of insight when he's not trolling Jim or Phil. It's the snarky little sidebars that he throws out all the time that just drive me nuts. I'm not for banning anyone but it would be much nicer if he would curb his trolling.

 

I thought we have always got along.  I have never had any type of exchange with you ever.     Always love your winter scene pics.  

 

The Phil stuff should have been in a separate thread from the start.   Would have been much better.   And Jim has been trolling me this year... which I actually enjoy.  

[TT-SEA]

Great ECMWF ensemble support for the operational run.

[Guest Winterdog]

I thought we have always got along.  I have never had any type of exchange with you ever.     Always love your winter scene pics.  

 

The Phil stuff should have been in a separate thread from the start.   Would have been much better.   And Jim has been trolling me this year... which I actually enjoy.  

We get along but you never get my puns!

[James Jones]

An overachiever in the making at PDX. Already up to 88.

[Deweydog]

Hats off to the WRF. It really went balls to the wall with this air mass and it looks to be paying off.

[Jesse]

Hats off to the WRF. It really went balls to the wall with this air mass and it looks to be paying off.

92-94 was probably a good call.

 

Maybe too conservative.

 

Just two more days of this hell after today then maybe we can get our week of requisite troughing out of the way to make way for more ridging.

[Deweydog]

92-94 was probably a good call.

 

Maybe too conservative.

 

Just two more days of this hell after today then maybe we can get our week of requisite troughing out of the way to make way for more ridging.

Things will slow down. It's a downslope day.

 

And you're right. Ridging will be back at some point.

[Front Ranger]

For PDX, Summers here usually last a little bit past mid September. June 24 to September 20 is when average temperatures are 74+. Our lows are cooler though in September so I'd say June 20 to September 20 is a more accurate range.

 

https://weatherspark.com/averages/31237/Portland-Oregon-United-States

 

For Tim's area specifically (Landsburg):

 

September has the exact same long term average high as June, low is more than a degree cooler. Precip is almost exactly the same.

[Deweydog]

Are you guys ever gonna get this June/September thing figured out?

[Jesse]

Strange seeing altocumulus to the north and east today. This seems like an unusual setup.