September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

Its definitely an Arctic outbreak pattern. 

 

Getting it out of the way extra early this year!

[Jesse]

I see. So they're talking about rate of change in solar activity as opposed to the actual amount of sunspots. Interesting.

 

It would be like the derivative as opposed to a linear equation.

[wx_statman]

Getting it out of the way extra early this year!

 

2014-15 redux?

[Jesse]

I passed through there a few years ago. We did the 101 loop from Hoquiam to Olympia. Didn't do much hiking though since it was mostly a driving trip. 

 

It's a great drive through some fantastic forests. Although the big leaf maples are really suffering the last few years, thanks to the drought and ongoing warm temps. Most of the maples in the Quinault Rain Forest had dead, withered leaves in their crown, and the leaves lower down were looking pretty rough too. Not sure if the trees themselves will die or if it is just a temporary look until cooler, wetter years come along.

[Jesse]

2014-15 redux?

 

There was quite the "arctic outbreak" pattern on 9/11/14 as well.

 

We were still living in Stevenson at the time and there were some very strong and cool east winds that day, for so early.

 

Kind of a foreshadowing of the pattern two months later. 

[BLI snowman]

2014-15 redux?

 

Pretty soon September will be our new January!

[wx_statman]

There was quite the arctic outbreak pattern on 9/11/14 as well.

 

We were still living in Stevenson at the time and there were some very strong and cool east winds that day, for so early.

 

Kind of a foreshadowing of the pattern two months later. 

 

That was a very impressive early season event. It was actually one of the earliest occurrences of "cool" east winds that I could find in PDX history. The earliest was 8/23/1992 but I'm pretty sure 9/11/2014 was the earliest to produce gusts of 40+ mph. 

 

18 @ Sheridan Airport in WY was the earliest teens on record (post-1940) by a week, and Rapid City saw their earliest measurable snowfall. 

[snow_wizard]

Getting it out of the way extra early this year!

 

Certainly a glass half empty way to look at it.  It dropped to freezing in many locations on September 12, 1949.  Overall the positive height anoms over the GOA this year are a very good match to that year.  I'm obviously not saying this will be a 1949-50 redux.

[snow_wizard]

There was quite the "arctic outbreak" pattern on 9/11/14 as well.

 

We were still living in Stevenson at the time and there were some very strong and cool east winds that day, for so early.

 

Kind of a foreshadowing of the pattern two months later. 

 

Early season cold with a Nino is usually poisonous.  Thank God that isn't the case this year.

[Phil]

I see. So they're talking about rate of change in solar activity as opposed to the actual amount of sunspots. Interesting.

Yeah, there's promising research on this. Theoretically speaking, an abrupt change in a given external forcing will promote a more coherent systematic response (on that higher resolution), and/or may promote a different response versus a slower-changing background forcing.

[wx_statman]

Certainly a glass half empty way to look at it.  It dropped to freezing in many locations on September 12, 1949.  Overall the positive height anoms over the GOA this year are a very good match to that year.  I'm obviously not saying this will be a 1949-50 redux.

 

1889, 1921 and 1970 also had major early season Arctic airmasses at this time of year. Good winters followed.

 

Then again, we're not seeing a major cold airmass right now. So those aren't good analogs. 

[Jesse]

The "Arctic front" passed through Cut Bank overnight. 76 yesterday, currently 44. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=ctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

 

Cut Bank and the vicinity has a fascinating climate. The meeting of the Rocky Mountain front and the Great Plains makes for a wide variety of transitional vegetation communities (aspen parkland being my personal favorite). And, of course, some incredibly wild swings in weather conditions, thanks to the varied topography and the huge difference in temperature a slight change in wind direction can make.

 

We usually try to get over to the east side of Glacier at least once every time we go to Whitefish.

[Jesse]

Euro ensemble mean shows generally lower heights than the operational days 5-10.

 

I like how this is trending.

[wx_statman]

Cut Bank and the vicinity has a fascinating climate. The meeting of the Rocky Mountain front and the Great Plains makes for a wide variety of transitional vegetation communities (aspen parkland being my personal favorite). And, of course, some incredibly wild swings in weather conditions, thanks to the varied topography and the huge difference in temperature a slight change in wind direction can make.

 

We usually try to get over to the east side of Glacier at least once every time we go to Whitefish.

 

Usually a good sign you're transitioning to a subarctic climate zone, although its obviously elevation-driven in that area. The aspen parkland transition zone around Prince Albert SK is real interesting since its latitude driven. The city itself is mostly prairie with a borderline humid continental/cold semi-arid climate profile, but 50 miles north of town you're in a full blown boreal forest environment with a subarctic climate. 

[snow_wizard]

1889, 1921 and 1970 also had major early season Arctic airmasses at this time of year. Good winters followed.

 

Then again, we're not seeing a major cold airmass right now. So those aren't good analogs. 

 

Maybe they are from a 500mb perspective.  Anyway...the winter of 1921-22 is one that gets way too little recognition.  That winter and 1922-23 were one of the better pairs of winters on record.  That was especially true here as both of them over performed in this general area.

[luminen]

The "Arctic front" passed through Cut Bank overnight. 76 yesterday, currently 44. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=ctb&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

 

Last night around 10pm-2am it was very windy here and the air had a distinctly dry feel to it. Winter will be here soon. 

[snow_wizard]

Euro ensemble mean shows generally lower heights than the operational days 5-10.

 

I like how this is trending.

 

Me too.  No reason to think the general tendency toward a ridgy pattern later in week two could also be watered down or done away with as the time frame narrows.

[TT-SEA]

SEA still just 60 at noon.

 

 

And now they are over-performing today... 66 at 2 p.m.

 

Checked again and the 12Z ECMWF had a high of 64 at SEA today.

[wx_statman]

Maybe they are from a 500mb perspective.  Anyway...the winter of 1921-22 is one that gets way too little recognition.  That winter and 1922-23 were one of the better pairs of winters on record.  That was especially true here as both of them over performed in this general area.

 

You can extend that out to 1924-25. Four straight solid winters for the PNW. 

[Jesse]

Usually a good sign you're transitioning to a subarctic climate zone, although its obviously elevation-driven in that area. The aspen parkland transition zone around Prince Albert SK is real interesting since its latitude driven. The city itself is mostly prairie with a borderline humid continental/cold semi-arid climate profile, but 50 miles north of town you're in a full blown boreal forest environment with a subarctic climate. 

 

Great stuff. Some of the high plains directly east of the Rocky Mountain front in the Glacier/Blackfoot Reservation area probably have a sub-arctic climate thanks in part to their elevation. But yeah, the latitude driven stuff further is even more interesting since it's the real deal.

 

Another aspect of that region I really like is the triple-divide that runs through there. There is a mountain in the northern part of Glacier (Triple Divide Peak) whose snowmelt ends up in either the Pacific via the Columbia, the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi, or the Arctic Ocean via Hudson's Bay depending on what side of the peak it happens to flow down.

[wx_statman]

Great stuff. Some of the high plains directly east of the Rocky Mountain front in the Glacier/Blackfoot Reservation area probably have a sub-arctic climate thanks in part to their elevation. But yeah, the latitude driven stuff further is even more interesting since it's the real deal.

 

Another aspect of that region I really like is the triple-divide that runs through there. There is a mountain in the northern part of Glacier (Triple Divide Peak) whose snowmelt ends up in either the Pacific via the Columbia, the Gulf of Mexico via the Mississippi, or the Arctic Ocean via Hudson's Bay depending on what side of the peak it happens to flow down.

 

That's awesome. I never knew that.

[Deweydog]

And now they are over-performing today... 66 at 2 p.m.

 

Checked again and the 12Z ECMWF had a high of 64 at SEA today.

Gots to be rough on you. No one is in a bad mood today despite your best efforts.

[stuffradio]

Cliff mass says the blob is back now.

[Jesse]

Cliff mass says the blob is back now.

Have Cliff Mass and the Blob set a date yet?

[wx_statman]

"Arctic" frontal passage through Kalispell this afternoon. Dropped from 63 to 48 between 1-2 pm. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=gpi&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[snow_wizard]

Cliff mass says the blob is back now.

 

I kind of disagree because of the colder water along the West Coast.  That makes it quite different.

[Deweydog]

I kind of disagree because of the colder water along the West Coast. That makes it quite different.

If you're one of the blob-believers I don't think it matters too much.

[Bryant]

If you're one of the blob-believers I don't think it matters too much.

D**n beliebers

[TT-SEA]

SEA pulls out a 70... when the ECMWF showed 64 just this morning for today.

 

Not bad.  I like it.

 

18Z GFS shows it will be basically sunny and nice through next Sunday.   Quite the western ridge in the long range as well.   

[snow_wizard]

You can extend that out to 1924-25. Four straight solid winters for the PNW. 

 

I can't think of much for 1923-24.  1924-25 though....

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I kind of disagree because of the colder water along the West Coast.  That makes it quite different.

 

The extension of the anomalies into the eastern Bering Sea/NW Gulf of Alaska would definitely be a plus if they have any staying power. Our blob winters didn't do us any favors up there in spite of colder offshore temperatures.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.1.14.2013.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.1.13.2014.gif

[snow_wizard]

If you're one of the blob-believers I don't think it matters too much.

 

There are lots of them out there.  I think the warm NE Pacific is the thing causing so many Eastern mets to go for a warm West this winter.  The cooler water along the West Coast actually makes this much closer to if not a minus PDO.  You're probably right that it doesn't matter much though.  I think much of correlation is coincidence and the root cause lies elsewhere.

[snow_wizard]

The extension of the anomalies into the eastern Bering Sea/NW Gulf of Alaska would definitely be a plus if they have any staying power. Our blob winters didn't do us any favors up there in spite of colder offshore temperatures.

 

 

 

It's kind of apples oranges since we won't have warm ENSO this winter.  Also...the blob is different now.  The NOAA PDO was minus last month for the first time in years.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The extension of the anomalies into the eastern Bering Sea/NW Gulf of Alaska would definitely be a plus if they have any staying power. Our blob winters didn't do us any favors up there in spite of colder offshore temperatures.

 

 

Hmm, but then again winter 2008/2009 doesn't really stand out in terms of SST anomalies alone. I wonder how the surface pressure anomalies would compare between these years:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.1.12.2009.gif

[snow_wizard]

Hmm, but then again winter 2008/2009 doesn't really stand out in terms of SST anomalies alone. I wonder how the surface pressure anomalies would compare between these years:

 

 

 

Surface pressure over the NE Pacific was much lower in summer 2008 than this year.  Years with cold ENSO can actually pull that off...a cold winter after a summer with low pressure out there.

[TT-SEA]

Surface pressure over the NE Pacific was much lower in summer 2008 than this year.  Years with cold ENSO can actually pull that off...a cold winter after a summer with low pressure out there.

 

 

Was that a cold winter... or just a cold and snowy 2 weeks?

[BLI snowman]

Was that a cold winter... or just a cold and snowy 2 weeks?

2008-09 is the coldest winter for the NW since 1992-93.

[TT-SEA]

2008-09 is the coldest winter for the NW since 1992-93.

 

 

OK... I did not know how it stacked up overall.

 

Of course memories are most important and 2008-09 had many of those.   Including negative ones like our roof leaking badly due to an ice jam and flooding our family room on Christmas Eve... and the terrible flooding in early January that caused many roads to be completely washed out.    We had long detours for months afterwards.    

[ShawniganLake]

OK... I did not know how it stacked up overall.

 

Of course memories are most important and 2008-09 had many of those. Including negative ones like our roof leaking badly due to an ice jam and flooding our family room on Christmas Eve... and the terrible flooding in early January that caused many roads to be completely washed out. We had long detours for months afterwards.

Nothing like that here. The snow melted slowly over the next 2-3 months.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Nothing like that here. The snow melted slowly over the next 2-3 months.

 

Lucky. I remember the snow here was completely gone by Jan 10th.