snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 00z ensembles are certainly much improved. If the height anomalies over the North Pacific can remain the same they have been through October our chances for a great winter will be pretty high. So far the warm autumn in NW forecasts have been proven wrong. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 New 00z Canadian & ensembles are also improved, deeper western trough and sharper/stronger ridge into Alaska. That ridge amplifying poleward instead of flattening south of the Aleutians seems to be the difference maker. I think the operational GooFuS was a blip. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 If the height anomalies over the North Pacific can remain the same they have been through October our chances for a great winter will be pretty high. So far the warm autumn in NW forecasts have been proven wrong. Indeed. The prospects for a fairly cool September are looking good. I don't think any major forecasting outlet or long range model (Euro weeklies, CFS, etc) predicted that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Things look to remain rather unchanged in the tropics so it should remain troughy here overall. No doubt ENSO SST's will react to this amazing run of trade winds pretty soon. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Pretty big change on the CFS ENSO forecast the past week or so. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 SLE picked up 0.44" in an hour this evening with the t-storm. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The 12z ECMWF ensembles are also emphatically shooting for a prolonged trade wind surge. I think the Niña deniers on the eastern forums are in trouble. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE3986E2-62AB-4727-BC59-DF39F4382948_zpsv9tb5dqi.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Pretty big change on the CFS ENSO forecast the past week or so. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gifThat one lil' guy gets awfully cold next June. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The 12z ECMWF ensembles are also emphatically shooting for a prolonged trade wind surge. I think the Niña deniers on the eastern forums are in trouble. Even more dramatic than the GFS. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Dr. No is out to 96hrs. Can already see differences over Asia, though it was already gunning for the stronger sharper NPAC ridge. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Tonight could break the 49 barrier at PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 That one lil' guy gets awfully cold next June. Such a cutie! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Tonight could break the 49 barrier at PDX. SEA did manage to do that yesterday. Today's 52 was absurd. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Even more dramatic than the GFS.Can really see that low-frequency Niña Walker Cell having consolidated over the last few months. Now, if we could just shift everything ~25 degrees eastward, so the convergent maximum sits around 150E. That'd just be perfection..1978/79 on -PNA 'roids. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 SEA did manage to do that yesterday. Today's 52 was absurd.PDX has been down to 49 a few times this month, but hasn't fallen any lower just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 I just want to see Joe B have his winter forecast bust for the PNW being warmer than normal and less snow than normal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 00z ECMWF completely does away with the Midwest ULL, instead goes with a trough split. Resulting changes to be determined. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 00z ECMWF completely does away with the Midwest ULL, instead goes with a trough split. Resulting changes to be determined.I would guess a more progressive, full latitude trough for us that doesn't cut off as much as advertised on the 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 I would guess a more progressive, full latitude trough for us that doesn't cut off as much as advertised on the 12z.Yeah, it's definitely more progressive over the US, though it's also somewhat flatter with the NPAC ridge, which helps widen the downstream ridge over the Intermountain West. Might be a wash in the short term. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The euro is looking kinda yucky. Similar to 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Meh, next. Offshore ridge is too flat, given its latitude, for much of a downstream push. Also has that stronger polar vortex, so most of the jet energy is consolidated northward. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 SLE picked up 0.44" in an hour this evening with the t-storm. Meanwhile going on over three months without a storm up here. Been a super lame year for convection, even by our barely there standards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The ECMWF actually isn't that bad. The NPI is very high almost the entire time. Definitely better looking at the surface than the upper levels. You also have the fact it could easily turn out much bette than progged at the 500mb level with a few minor adjustments. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The ECMWF actually isn't that bad. The NPI is very high almost the entire time. Definitely better looking at the surface than the upper levels. You also have the fact it could easily turn out much bette than progged at the 500mb level with a few minor adjustments.Eh, note the 500mb snake out of Asia. That's a classic precursor to a +NAM and/or +EPO. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/D7137ED3-DBC5-44C9-9246-44354A6419F4_zpsiualirpp.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Looks like SEA is on pace to finish up September very much like last year. Cool and wet the first week of the month... then generally dry and near normal the rest of the month. September 2015 was -0.8 at SEA and so far this September is -0.7 with the rest of the month probably averaging close to normal. August of 2015 and 2016 were the same as well at +2.6 The more things change... the more they stay the same. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 00Z ECMWF looks great on the surface maps for the next 10 days (only exception is Friday). 9 out of 10 days that are fairly sunny and pleasant. Interestingly... it shows upper 50s to barely touching 60 on Friday for both PDX and SEA with a perfectly timed front for cool anomaly lovers. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Euro ensembles continue to look way different than the operational. The trough is directly over us from mid week onward on the ensemble. 06z GFS looks that way too, with very good ensemble support. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 ECMWF ensemble control run shows one transient trough later next week followed by a return to ridging. I like the control run in general because its not so blended after day 6. Sometimes its very different than the operational run which is informative as well. When its really different then you know the operational will be changing significantly. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Tonight could break the 49 barrier at PDX.47! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Indeed. The prospects for a fairly cool September are looking good. I don't think any major forecasting outlet or long range model (Euro weeklies, CFS, etc) predicted that. I think it's been proven repeatedly that long range models like the Euro weeklies like to stick to what's been working. In other words, they overvalue persistence. At least, they value it too long. That's probably why the weeklies have been so bad in recent months. The CFS, of course, has no logical explanation. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Looks like the 5th low in the 30s this month at OLM this morning. Speaking of OLM, they now have a -1.4 anomaly on the month, twice SEA's. The two were running neck and neck through the first 10 days, but as usual, SEA has pulled away on the warm side of things. A lot of places will probably finish this September cooler than last. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The 12z ECMWF ensembles are also emphatically shooting for a prolonged trade wind surge. I think the Niña deniers on the eastern forums are in trouble. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE3986E2-62AB-4727-BC59-DF39F4382948_zpsv9tb5dqi.jpg Powering into October! Certainly fits Nina climo. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Looks like the 5th low in the 30s this month at OLM this morning. Speaking of OLM, they now have a -1.4 anomaly on the month, twice SEA's. The two were running neck and neck through the first 10 days, but as usual, SEA has pulled away on the warm side of things. A lot of places will probably finish this September cooler than last. Easily. PDX is sitting at -2 as of today. At this point Sunday-Tuesday look like the only real positive anomaly days the rest of the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Interesting fact: Through 9/22, the Atlantic has generated the lowest ACE of any year except 1963 (Niño/-QBO). Given that we're in a Niña/+QBO (reduction in equatorward convective integral over Pacific relative to Atlantic), this is quite confounding. Possibly to the point where I'm going to factor Atlantic ACE into my winter analogs. Also, for the first time on record (since 1856), we've observed back to back years (2015 & 2016) without any hurricanes from 9/1 to 9/22. Seems we've entered an inactive era in the Atlantic. A significant shift in the Atlantic Hadley Cell looks to be the culprit..it occurred abruptly and simultaneously w/ the NPAC Hadley/Walker regime change of January 2013. Starting to look as if that month was the marker of a climate shift. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Powering into October! Certainly fits Nina climo.Yup, powered by a convective burst over 120E, which is (as you noted) a classic Niña hallmark. Would still like to (eventually) get the convection closer to 150E, allowing for a more ideal NPAC configuration for the West. It's okay for this time of year, however. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Spatially speaking, the dominant trough was located in the West over the last 90 days, reflecting the Niña/-AAM background. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/46B8FC56-E60D-468D-BC48-A5E6FE9E8480_zpsfle3mysk.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Between 2:30am to 3:00am there was heavy rain in Klamath (heaviest since the May storm). It was noisy even with the window closed. No t'storms here but yesterday evening it looked like there was going to be some convection. Just some cells along the I-5 area in SW Oregon. Looks like the season for lowland storms is beginning, while mine is ending. I heard from a bunch of people on Facebook yesterday that it was quite active up in NW OR. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 (Credit: Michael Ventrice/WSI). "Atmospheric ENSO index" (basically, convective/circulatory tendencies derived relative to ENSO climatology) is dropping into negative (Niña) territory for the first time in over 2yrs: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/3072345F-5632-4A01-878A-93918DA629AC_zpsdksyqnay.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 The 12z ECMWF ensembles are also emphatically shooting for a prolonged trade wind surge. I think the Niña deniers on the eastern forums are in trouble. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/EE3986E2-62AB-4727-BC59-DF39F4382948_zpsv9tb5dqi.jpghopefully they actually do something this time. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 hopefully they actually do something this time. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png No kidding... a couple weeks ago all the hype was about the strongest trade wind burst in history and the ENSO regions warmed anyways. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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