Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 hopefully they actually do something this time. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.pngCan't say I have an explanation for the SSTA warming, save maybe instability waves and/or differential climatology? However, it doesn't really matter in the short term, IMO. The strong trades over the Pacific, in tandem with the westerlies over the Indian Ocean, reflect a coherent Niña Walker Cell/convective state. So, as long as that continues, the extratropical circulations will emulate a Niña, regardless of SSTAs. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 No kidding... a couple weeks ago all the hype was about the strongest trade wind burst in history and the ENSO regions warmed anyways. To be fair, a couple weeks ago 3.4 was at its coolest point yet. It then warmed after that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 To be fair, a couple weeks ago 3.4 was at its coolest point yet. It then warmed after that.Yes, but the warming commenced and has continued when the trade winds became more favourable. ~Sept.10th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 My post on Atlantic ACE was incorrect. Should have said lowest ACE of any year to obtain climatological average by season's end. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Yes, but the warming commenced and has continued when the trade winds became more favourable. ~Sept.10th. Well, some of it depends on which ENSO region you're looking at and where the wind anomalies are. Either way, I'd bet good money (at least $10) that October is cooler than September in the ENSO regions. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Brrrr... GFS MOS shows 57 at SEA tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Brrrr... GFS MOS shows 57 at SEA tomorrow.Get yer tuque's out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 12z GFS must not have trended toward the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 12z GFS must not have trended toward the Euro. Shut up Jesse... I have been reporting on colder and warmer runs. Dewey is right... you are just looking for trouble all the time. 12Z GFS is a pretty nice run. Ridge breaks down but trough axis stays offshore and to the north for most of next week. Canadian is about the same. Looks like very nice weather ahead. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Seems to be a lot of cloud cover around this morning. Mid 60s are possible today for the Portland area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Canadian looks pretty weak with a break down in the middle of next week... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif GFS basically agrees... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Wow, the 12z GFS ensembles are the coolest yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Wow, the 12z GFS ensembles are the coolest yet.Could you post the Portland one, I'm curious. The Vancouver ensemble chart has been largely unchanged the past couple days. Quick ridge then down to climo through the long range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Another gorgeous day... sunny and pleasant here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Could you post the Portland one, I'm curious. The Vancouver ensemble chart has been largely unchanged the past couple days. Quick ridge then down to climo through the long range. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Perfect day... http://s14.postimg.org/a7xbpu941/sea89.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.pngWhat a huge difference. Haven't seen the models, is the troughing focussed that much more to the south? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Seems to be a lot of cloud cover around this morning. Mid 60s are possible today for the Portland area. Will keep the lows up tonight, though. Good chance tomorrow afternoon at least cracks 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 What a huge difference. Haven't seen the models, is the troughing focussed that much more to the south? There just isn't a huge gap between PDX and YVR, it's a pretty uniform cool airmass. 850mb temps do get a little lower over PDX by fantasyland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Starting to clear out down here in Salem. I see the meteostar only shows a high of 56 here tomorrow...That would translate to a high in the upper 40s up at my place. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Only 56 at SEA at noon... went down a degree. On the edge of the marine layer field. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Perfect day... http://s14.postimg.org/a7xbpu941/sea89.png Looks the same here. This was two days ago though: 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Oh my gawd... this area seriously cannot put the sun on hold for more than.... 12 hours. Cannot wait for deep Fall season to kick in here. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Perfect day... http://s14.postimg.org/a7xbpu941/sea89.png That's my area 24/7/365. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Looks the same here. This was two days ago though: Is that a flock of birds or just something weird with the photo in front of the cloud? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 12z ECMWF says PDX has one more 90 left in him on Monday. Highest its shown yet for that day. We'll see what the 12z EPS shows. Still only looking like a two day warm spell though. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 61F and sunny. Love it. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 That's my area 24/7/365. And mine. It gets really old. Redmond Oregon averages over 280 days a year of sun. Yuck 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 And mine. It gets really old. Redmond Oregon averages over 280 days a year of sun. Yuck Here they like to claim 300 days of sun a year. Which people seem to think means 300 sunny days/year, but it's actually based on sunny or partly sunny (40%+ sun) days. Same there, I assume? 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 And mine. It gets really old. Redmond Oregon averages over 280 days a year of sun. YuckSounds like my kind of place! Sign me up! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Nice to see the Euro finally trend much cooler. In line with the other models and its ensembles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Here they like to claim 300 days of sun a year. Which people seem to think means 300 sunny days/year, but it's actually based on sunny or partly sunny (40%+ sun) days. Same there, I assume? Yeah, I believe that count also includes days there are clouds but sunbreaks. So if the sun "shines" at any point in the day, that's 300+ Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Will keep the lows up tonight, though. Good chance tomorrow afternoon at least cracks 60.Clearing up a bit now. I think low 50s sound good for tonight. Tomorrow will be a close call for 60 regardless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Sounds like my kind of place! Sign me up!A move to a warmer and sunnier climate would definitely be a good choice for you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Here they like to claim 300 days of sun a year. Which people seem to think means 300 sunny days/year, but it's actually based on sunny or partly sunny (40%+ sun) days. Same there, I assume?Yes. They claim over 300 but it's more like 275. I will tell you though, it gets old with constant sun year round. Even in winter it's sunny. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Clearing up a bit now. I think low 50s sound good for tonight. Tomorrow will be a close call for 60 regardless. Gonna be a good old fashioned gunk fest for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Gonna be a good old fashioned gunk fest for sure.We all need a little gunk sometimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Late September perfection out there... mostly sunny and 68. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Yes. They claim over 300 but it's more like 275. I will tell you though, it gets old with constant sun year round. Even in winter it's sunny.You could always move up here, where it's constantly cloudy in the late fall/winter/spring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 22, 2016 Report Share Posted September 22, 2016 Clearing up a bit now. I think low 50s sound good for tonight. Tomorrow will be a close call for 60 regardless. Seems like a "perfect storm" tomorrow for those interested in cold anomalies. Looks to be a perfectly timed warm front that will allow temps to fall down into the low 50's overnight tonight with the muck beginning around commute time or shortly thereafter. ECWMF says 59º for a high tomorrow. EPS mean sits at 61º. GFS MOS guidance sits 59º. It's actually too bad that the record low, high is only 54º tomorrow. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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