January 2014 Observations and Discussion

[The Snowman]

Mike Caplan's 7-day forecast has it subzero from Sunday night thru Wednesday Morning, -17 Monday night.  Seems like there will be more winds involved than what the models were showing a couple days ago as PV is farther south and west.

Definitely looking mighty cold when we get to the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. I'm usually a big winter weather fan, but I'd be OK with temperatures in the 20s and a snowstorm rather than multiple clippers in the -10s.

 

Ah well- considering the past few winters, can't really get too picky about the wintry weather we do receive 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

-40 WC Mon Morning

-50 WC Tues Morning

 

Ugh. Make it stop.

 

I agree, if we get missed by Sunday's clipper frustration will be at an all-time high, I consider this type of weather pattern almost worse than a 2011-12 because not only do we miss out on some of the big storms, but we still get bitterly cold.

[Tom]

I took a gander at the WPO/EPO and both Euro/GFS are indicating a sharp drop into negative territory heading into February.  This may offset the -PNA and produce a sustained trough in the central/eastern CONUS.  Right now the EPO is off the charts negative but models still keep it deeply negative heading into the 1-2 week range.

 

Having said that, this pattern of sustained cold (not necessarily brutal cold) seems to be locked into place this winter.  It reminds of the extreme pattern we had develop for the 2011-2012 Winter were we couldn't buy any cold air, but flooded with Pacific Warmth all across the nation.  This winter is obviously totally opposite but holds the same characteristics of a pattern NOT breaking anytime soon.

[Tom]

LOL, WildWisconsin, I literally just posted my message referring to the winter '11/'12 in a different manner.

[tim the weatherman]

if we do get any big storms with this cold pattern in place than we could get big snowstorms out of this cold pattern

[Scott26]

I'm liking the chance for no school at least one day next week. Tuesday morning looks insanely brutal and just as bad as the first outbreak. Other than that I'm hating this cold and I'm almost sick of this winter. I want one more big snowstorm and I'm pretty much done. These clippers are getting annoying to track and just don't amount to much.

[james1976]

clippers looking good for me this weekend. long range GFS looks active!

[Geos]

I took a gander at the WPO/EPO and both Euro/GFS are indicating a sharp drop into negative territory heading into February.  This may offset the -PNA and produce a sustained trough in the central/eastern CONUS.  Right now the EPO is off the charts negative but models still keep it deeply negative heading into the 1-2 week range.

 

Having said that, this pattern of sustained cold (not necessarily brutal cold) seems to be locked into place this winter.  It reminds of the extreme pattern we had develop for the 2011-2012 Winter were we couldn't buy any cold air, but flooded with Pacific Warmth all across the nation.  This winter is obviously totally opposite but holds the same characteristics of a pattern NOT breaking anytime soon.

 

I don't think we can have a -EPO and -PNA together. It's either one or the other. Now I think one can be neutral and the other one negative. Overall I think we see the trough dig in the western US more with a baroclinic zone setting up in the Ohio Valley.

 

Added: If you think about it, both teleconnections are eastern Pacific based. A -EPO is a ridge south and east of Alaska and a -PNA is a trough centered on the West Coast or inter mountain west. I guess you could have a west based -EPO, but that would funnel the coldest air into the West.

---

 

Hit 9° here today. +2° currently.

Forecasted low is about -9°. SW winds are forecasted to boost temperatures after the low around 1am.

[East Dubzz]

We're lucky those SW winds are coming in and going to warm things up here soon. -13 right now, wind chill of -30.

[Geos]

We're lucky those SW winds are coming in and going to warm things up here soon. -13 right now, wind chill of -30.

 

Won't be long before it starts warming by you.

 

[East Dubzz]

Won't be long before it starts warming by you.

 

Yeah the temp has hold steady at -13, so it stopped dropping. Temps should start taking a hit now. Well, it was really cold while it lasted!

[Geos]

Down to -3°, but with a breeze still blowing.

[East Dubzz]

GFS and GEM are crazy cold next week! Brrr!!

[Tom]

00z Euro has -30C 850's 18z Monday...Ouch!

 

 

[Tom]

00z Euro Monday night lows....low/mid 20's subzero!!!  Chiberia round #2!!!!  Lake Michigan will become alive once again...

[ChicagoToSeattle]

00z Euro Monday night lows....low/mid 20's subzero!!!  Chiberia round #2!!!!  Lake Michigan will become alive once again...

Yikes, those are "barbarically" cold temps as Skilling likes to say. Speaking of Lake Michigan, here's the ice coverage as of a couple of days ago. As this winter progresses, the lake snow machine may start slowing down due to ice. Lake Erie is already at a point where lake effect is basically zilch.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/lice_00%20_7_.gif

[Money]

It's been a cold winter so far. From Dec 1 to Jan 21, Milwaukee's average temperature ranks 15th coldest since 1894, and Madison's average temperature ranks 14th coldest.

[gosaints]

Monday morning looks brutal for winds. Tuesday morning could be impressive for actual lows

[Geos]

Reached -6° here last night - early. Wasn't already above zero when I left for work. Mixed clouds and sun currently in Racine.

 

Just gotta get past next Wednesday and things are looking up a bit.

[gosaints]

GFS Mos data has rochester minnesota at -22 at Noon on Monday!!!

[Geos]

Looks so much nicer the last day of the month! Nothing sub Zero in the continental US!

 

[Tom]

12z GGEM showing -35F lows Wednesday morning!  Probably overdone...

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

do we have any big storms in the future?

[gosaints]

Euro temp maps??

[Tom]

12z Euro long range starting to show some interesting developments in the Plains/Midwest/GL region towards the end of the month. 

 

[tim the weatherman]

pretty good tom that we are getting sick of these alberta clippers.

[Tom]

Both GFS/Euro starting to develop more blocking in long range.  More predominant -AO/NAO is showing up on the models.  I don't see any warm ups happening in the long range.

[Geos]

Day 8-10 on the EURO looking more interesting. Different pattern. Of course this is in February...

Going to start that thread tonight.

 

 

 

[tim the weatherman]

if we do get any storms that they are going to be snowstorms and bigones.

[james1976]

long range GFS looks pretty active with a west-east pattern developing. wouldnt be surprised to see a big storm in the near future.

[tim the weatherman]

you bet james 1976

[Tom]

Mike Caplan's 7 Day has -5F high both Mon/Tue and a -19F Tuesday morning low!  This brutal cold wave is going to break records.  It may not get above 0 till Thursday morning!

[Tom]

18z GFS starting to show a bigger system right around the 31st.  Is this the trend for our 1st Big Storm that will hit a lot of folks in the Plains (esp NE) and our area late next week???  The 500mb pattern would suggest a west/east storm track during this time frame and what better way to kick start this active pattern with a snowstorm that lays down a nice swath of accumulating snows over the Central/Eastern CONUS.

[Tony]

Just took a quick gander Tom at the 18zGFS and that system you just mentioned can rally have some potential. Just as it sits right now that would be warning type snows.

[tim the weatherman]

show us the model pics tom

[tim the weatherman]

this does not looks good for the 31st of this that i am thinking that we are looking at a full blowing blizzard from neb to michigan.

[tim the weatherman]

i am thinking that we need to make a new thread on next friday.

[Tom]

18z GFS Precip...not huge now, but this could be a big CO Low....

 

 

[Tom]

Way to early to make a thread for storm next week.  We need more model agreement on this potential storm.

[Tony]

Finally there will be an end to this clipper train and then we get into some decent long range potential storms.