snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I also think there's a good chance November features exactly the opposite pattern over the NPAC, with an early season Arctic outbreak over the US. Exactly where is TBD. If true it will be another loser January. Almost a guarantee. If this month fails to get back on track you could well be right. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 If true it will be another loser January. Almost a guarantee. If this month fails to get back on track you could well be right.Why do you say that? I think January will feature the strongest NPAC and/or polar blocking of the entire cold season. I could be wrong, obviously. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Why do you say that? I think January will feature the strongest polar and/or NPAC blocking of the entire cold season. I could be wrong, obviously. We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast. That is even true in the 19th century. We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it. If we could move the timing up and score a blast late this month then it's a very different story. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast. That is even true in the 19th century. We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it.Well, the November Arctic blast could center over the Central US, or I could be wrong completely. I'm not sure about the specifics as of yet. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Well, the November Arctic blast could center over the Central US, or I could be wrong completely. I'm not sure about the specifics as of yet. That would be different I suppose. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The last week of January 1956 was not terrible. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 00z GFS ensembles shifted much cooler. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I just checked out October 1919 at Salem, OR and it blew my mind a little bit. Monthly Min of 32.9. 17 sub-freezing lows... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I really am not buying the October panic of many on here. We are going to have a much cooler October than the last two. I see no massive torches or runs at record late 90s in sight this year. Baby steps. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/tYpbUrd.jpg If we were to draw a vertical line at the dateline, one would see that on average, the forcing has dominated the Eastern Hemisphere as a whole. Lifting of air over the tropical Indian Ocean/Maritime/West Pac and sinking of air over the tropical Pacific. Classic La Nina configuration, promotion of low level easterlies over ENSO regions, etc. The location of the forcing has been fairly analogous to the mid latitude jet streak as well, keeping it confined to eastern Asia, promoting a meridonal flow vs. a zonal flow. Looking at the above 200VP anomalies, this changes in the coming days, with forcing as a whole shifting to the Western Hemisphere. We'll most likely see a pause in ENSO cooling due to no coherent low level easterlies, and the NPAC vortex associated with the jet streak extension will dominate for the time being. Looking ahead, may take a bit for the pattern to reverse itself once again, but the Canadian Ensemble is on the more optimistic side, supporting a return to EHem forcing near/after mid month. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I just checked out October 1919 at Salem, OR and it blew my mind a little bit. Monthly Min of 32.9. 17 sub-freezing lows... Do you mean monthly average min? Otherwise that doesn't make sense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Do you mean monthly average min? Otherwise that doesn't make sense.The monthly min was 19. You could easily check the historical record and figure that out! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The monthly min was 19. You could easily check the historical record and figure that out! You also easily could have stated the facts correctly... you said "Monthly Min of 32.9" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The monthly min was 19. You could easily check the historical record and figure that out! An average min that close to freezing in October in the Willamette Valley is pretty insane. Then of course you had the epicness just two months later. I much prefer our recent Maytobers though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 An average min that close to freezing in October in the Willamette Valley is pretty insane. Then of course you had the epicness just two months later. I much prefer our recent Maytobers though. Feb-Mar 1920 were pretty chilly too. Looks like Salem had 23 sub-freezing lows in February (Very dry month) and 10 sub-freezing lows in March. 1.5" of snow on the 31st of March that year too... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Feb-Mar 1920 were pretty chilly too. Looks like Salem had 23 sub-freezing lows in February (Very dry month) and 10 sub-freezing lows in March. 1.5" of snow on the 31st of March that year too... Salem was basically Redmond back then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast. That is even true in the 19th century. We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it. If we could move the timing up and score a blast late this month then it's a very different story. Not sure about that one. We've had a lot of really nice Januaries after November cold spells. 2007, 2004, 1979, 1971, 1960, 1956, 1947, 1922, 1912, 1901, 1897, 1888. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 That's a fairly impressive looking Jet days 8-10 on the Euro. Pretty possible we could see out first windstorm of the season next week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 We have never had a great January after a November Arctic blast. That is even true in the 19th century. We had a couple of ok Januaries, but that's about it. If we could move the timing up and score a blast late this month then it's a very different story. what about Nov. 2006 and Jan. 2007? Both featured Arctic fronts if I'm not mistaken? Had 17" of snow and sub freezing highs in Nov. and about 12" of snow and sub freezing highs as well in Jan. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Almost a half inch of rain overnight. I wonder if it is sunny in North Bend, WA this morning... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Almost a half inch of rain overnight. I wonder if it is sunny in North Bend, WA this morning... Not this morning Andrew. But we have our beautiful Sunday to remember. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Almost a half inch of rain overnight. I wonder if it is sunny in North Bend, WA this morning... Although Andrew... there might be some sun today. I see its sunny in Seattle this morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Looks like +QBO analogs continue to dominate on the CPC superensemble aggregate. That's a good sign for the west, given climo for said years from November-March. If this were a -QBO year, I'd have thrown in the towel, lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I found the sun at the office... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Interesting to note, if the modeling verifies over the next 7+ days, the stratPV will be the weakest in recorded history to open October in a -ENSO/+QBO year. Huge departure from the last several autumns, where the stratPV would go bonkers early and fully couple with/dominate the polar tropospheric circulation. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I found the sun at the office... Nice! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Big westward shift again on the 12Z GFS. Here is Sunday on the 00Z run:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif And the same time on the 12Z run:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_132_precip_p03.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Big westward shift again on the 12Z GFS. Here is Sunday on the 00Z run:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_144_precip_p03.gif And the same time on the 12Z run:http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_p03/gfs_namer_132_precip_p03.gifPerfect! I want to get some winter prep yard work done this weekend! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Really glad the Euro is still holding strong with a wet weekend. The GFS should eventually shift that way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Really glad the Euro is still holding strong with a wet weekend. The GFS should eventually shift that way. Or not. You don't know. You are too consumed with your hope that Randy and Tim are always miserable because we truly enjoy the warm weather we manage to get here at times. The 00Z ECMWF actually trended much warmer and drier for Sunday. Its shows mid to upper 70s now that day around Portland. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Dkst_p.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Or not. You don't know. You are too consumed with your hope that Randy and Tim are always miserable because we truly enjoy the warm weather we manage to get here at times. The 00Z ECMWF actually trended much warmer and drier for Sunday. Its shows mid to upper 70s now that day around Portland. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls01/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls01-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-Dkst_p.pngExactly! And today's Euro hasn't even come out yet...has it? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 FWIW... 12Z Canadian is also not aggressive with the weekend system. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Exactly! And today's Euro hasn't even come out yet...has it? No... starts coming out at 11 a.m. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 Getting a little sun here this morning. Felt delightfully Octoberish a bit earlier with some rain and winds moving through. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The Canadian has actually been less aggressive all along... and now the GFS and ECMWF are following suit to some degree. The 12Z Canadian still shows ridging even next Tuesday. There has definitely been a trend in the models to weaken and slow the progression overall. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The ongoing rivalries of some on here really crack me up. It's funny how people deliberately try to bait each other with opposing posts.... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 The ongoing rivalries of some on here really crack me up. It's funny how people deliberately try to bait each other with opposing posts.... I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS. It was significant for this weekend. Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone. Its an interesting and complicated pattern. I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend. Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon. Interesting. And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 12Z GFS still pretty mild and wet in the long term... it should arrive eventually even with the noticeable delay in the mid-range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 No doubt the weekend has trended warmer and drier. Hopefully the stormier pattern next week holds. Could be a windstorm in there somewhere if the trough axis ends up in a good spot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted October 4, 2016 Report Share Posted October 4, 2016 I mentioned a pretty big shift on the 12Z GFS. It was significant for this weekend. Worth mentioning and not directed at anyone. Its an interesting and complicated pattern. I would have also mentioned the 12Z GFS if it shifted strongly toward very stormy weather this weekend. Someone who has me on ignore responded immediately (without anyone quoting me) saying that the ECMWF was still strong with the weekend system and the GFS would shift that way... and included the smiley icon. Interesting. And actually incorrect based on the 00Z ECMWF.Not the smiley! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.