October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Already down to 34 at a wind sheltered station near Bellingham. VERY impressive for this time of year so early in the evening.

 

Meanwhile Bellingham has some brisk north winds blowing with the dp down into the 20s.

Sitting at 36 as of 1.5 hours ago in Glenhaven. Probably colser as of now

[TT-SEA]

Sitting at 36 as of 1.5 hours ago in Glenhaven. Probably colser as of now

 

So you are wind protected there huh?

 

That is going to pay huge dividends with outflow and moisture.   The opposite of Ferndale.

[Guest Winterdog]

Obviously the same thing happened to me with him in PM. Really bad stuff... and then I would respond with a smiley which made it worse of course.

Wow. I am surprised by all these stories about PM's and such. I've been part of this forum since 2007 and Jesse was on my case for years. I remember I had sent him a couple PM's pointing out how ridiculous some of his behavior had been but never got a reply. He has never PM'd me ever. He had really improved over the past couple years I thought and contributed a lot to the weather content here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very possible.  The thing about me is I'm able to take it out my anger by ranting about the weather itself and not deflecting it to other people.  I have a real soft spot for Jesse, because I understand how painful the last couple of years have been for cold weather nuts.

 

Even though he is a card carrying Bolshevik?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. I am surprised by all these stories about PM's and such. I've been part of this forum since 2007 and Jesse was on my case for years. I remember I had sent him a couple PM's pointing out how ridiculous some of his behavior had been but never got a reply. He has never PM'd me ever. He had really improved over the past couple years I thought and contributed a lot to the weather content here.

 

He blocked me on facebook in January because I told him his snow was going to transition to ZR or rain...Guess what? Blocking me did not delay the inevitable process. 

[snow_wizard]

Another run depicting chilly weather for the final third of the month or so.  Low thicknesses and northerly gradients at times.  I am really getting stoked now.  We continue to return to the default GOA ridge time after time.

[snow_wizard]

Even though he is a card carrying Bolshevik?

 

That just goes with the territory when you live west of the mountains in WA and OR.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another run depicting chilly weather for the final third of the month or so.  Low thicknesses and northerly gradients at times.  I am really getting stoked now.  We continue to return to the default GOA ridge time after time.

 

 

Since we have had default death ridging for two years its nice to see it retrograded a bit. 

 

That just goes with the territory when you live west of the mountains in WA and OR.

 

Not where I live. Marion County is one of the most populous in Oregon and split about 50/50. My precinct is rural and votes about 75% for Republican candidates. 

[Brennan]

3600ft, so it's pretty high, but a relatively dry winter climate. Looks like they have had flurries the last couple nights.

 

 

Thanks. It was a pretty devastating diagnosis for him and the family. Lung cancer that has already spread to at least three other locations. He started radiation on Friday, just less than 3 weeks from his 65th birthday and retirement.

I'm sorry to hear that. It's a shame it wasn't found sooner. My uncle just passed away at 63 and a year from retirement in Anchorage. He had stage 4 lung cancer when they found it. Too weak for chemo and radiation was short lived. Praying for your Pops man.

[epiceast]

I'm a little surprised Jesse got banned, but nothing is really surprising given the toxic culture of this forum. I'm sorry that some of you guys got some nasty PMs from him.

[Bryant]

So you are wind protected there huh?

 

That is going to pay huge dividends with outflow and moisture. The opposite of Ferndale.

Pretty much tucked into a valley.

You feel it will be beneficial huh?

[stuffradio]

It's 41 here right now.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much tucked into a valley.

You feel it will be beneficial huh?

 

 

Seen it many times up there away from the outflow wind... dewpoint stays up but temp falls and you get way more snow.   And what does fall does not get blown away but rather it clings to every tree and is much more enjoyable in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty much tucked into a valley.

You feel it will be beneficial huh?

 

And you get that c-zone coming off the the NE end of the Olympic peninsula at times... which frequently leaves Bellingham and Ferndale dry. 

[Brennan]

Sitting at 36 as of 1.5 hours ago in Glenhaven. Probably colser as of now

You need to go out tomorrow and get a weather station dude! We're relying on you for updates on this gem of a spot that nobody knows about.

 

On a different note.

 

Jesse.

 

I've been a member on these forums for almost 12 years now with many of the main group who still post on here. I was brought on with SnowWizard in December of 2003 at OldFarmersAlmanac forums before theweatherservice.com and now this. Until a few years ago I would post as much as anyone. At about that time I just became fed up with the relentless bickering to the point I completely stopped coming around. To some extent it hindered my learning about weather and climate. The forums is what drove my quest to learn and share what I was learning. It's awesome to be involved in a forum where everyone is striving to learn and share knowledge all the time, and where conversation is productive. Believe it or not it use to be like the 90% of the time (outside of Tim's complaining about moss and rain in the late 2000's). I haven't done much of anything in the past 3 or 4 years on this forum.

 

To see Jesse go is a big relief to me. He may have contributed to the forum in certain ways, but I think he hurt the forum more than he helped it. I feel like i'm a pretty fair person, and I can with confidence say that this forum will be more civil, more enjoyable, and more productive without him.

 

Enough about that. Carry on!

[Brennan]

Seen it many times up there away from the outflow wind... dewpoint stays up but temp falls and you get way more snow. And what does fall does not get blown away but rather it clings to every tree and is much more enjoyable in my opinion.

Great points.

 

It's a similarly to where I grew up off of lake whatcom, but 100 feet higher and in that convergence zone as you mentioned. I think in 80% of snow situations he'll fair better than most wind exposed places in whatcom county.

 

On clear cold nights being sheltered is huge especially early on in outflow events. Bellingham gets hung up with a NE WIND and places east and south wind blocked are 10* colder. The biggest takeaway from that location is the enjoyment of the snow. Sheltered and surrounded by hills.

[Guest Winterdog]

Down to 38F at 11pm here. 32F looking possible.

[Bryant]

And you get that c-zone coming off the the NE end of the Olympic peninsula at times... which frequently leaves Bellingham and Ferndale dry.

Seen the area south of Bellingham do quite well before while we were dry, was always a bit irritating. South lake Whatcom in particular, which is only a few minutes away. Hopefully time will tell and we all have a good winter

[Bryant]

Great points.

 

It's a similarly to where I grew up off of lake whatcom, but 100 feet higher and in that convergence zone as you mentioned. I think in 80% of snow situations he'll fair better than most wind exposed places in whatcom county.

 

On clear cold nights being sheltered is huge especially early on in outflow events. Bellingham gets hung up with a NE WIND and places east and south wind blocked are 10* colder. The biggest takeaway from that location is the enjoyment of the snow. Sheltered and surrounded by hills.

Glad you were able to come out for dinner and see the place. Hopefully you can ride the quad over from your parents house during the winter

[snow_wizard]

Great points.

 

It's a similarly to where I grew up off of lake whatcom, but 100 feet higher and in that convergence zone as you mentioned. I think in 80% of snow situations he'll fair better than most wind exposed places in whatcom county.

 

On clear cold nights being sheltered is huge especially early on in outflow events. Bellingham gets hung up with a NE WIND and places east and south wind blocked are 10* colder. The biggest takeaway from that location is the enjoyment of the snow. Sheltered and surrounded by hills.

 

And it still gets the benefit of the Arctic outflow almost every time the exposed areas get it.  Of course there are those times the outflow is weak and places that are sheltered from it get royally screwed, but from what I've seen that is rather uncommon.  I would like to spend one cold winter in an area like Lynden to experience the craziness that can happen there every so often.

[luvssnow_spokane]

-........

 

To see Jesse go is a big relief to me. .,, I can with confidence say that this forum will be more civil, more enjoyable, and more productive without him.

 

Enough about that. Carry on!

I 100% agree and I may actually enjoy contributing without fear of being relentlessly attacked. ... good times and improved community weather forum ahead!

[snow_wizard]

Seen the area south of Bellingham do quite well before while we were dry, was always a bit irritating. South lake Whatcom in particular, which is only a few minutes away. Hopefully time will tell and we all have a good winter

 

I think everyone will score this winter.  The key is to keep a cold setup long enough so a few low pressure systems taking various paths can spread some moisture to a wide area.

[snow_wizard]

One very interesting thing I have noticed when looking at the GFS ensemble is the control model has had it getting chilly around the 20th or so on every run for a couple of days now while the operational has been more erratic (finally settling on a cold solution).  Makes me wonder if they have are using  a new parallel model as the control.  At any rate a good -PNA signal is emerging for later in the month.

[snow_wizard]

Here is an average of the last dozen CFS runs for the month of January.  The strong -NAO signal that Phil has talked about is there along with blocking over the Pacific.  Very much the look Jan 1943 and Jan 1969 had.

 

 

[Phil]

Here is an average of the last dozen CFS runs for the month of January. The strong -NAO signal that Phil has talked about is there along with blocking over the Pacific. Very much the look Jan 1943 and Jan 1969 had.

Man, that looks orgasmic.

 

Similar to the ECMWF monthlies in December.

[snow_wizard]

Man, that looks orgasmic.

 

Similar to the ECMWF monthlies in December.

 

I keep thinking something is going to happen to derail this, but everything is perfectly on track assuming the models are right about the GOA ridge returning later in the month.

[Brennan]

And it still gets the benefit of the Arctic outflow almost every time the exposed areas get it. Of course there are those times the outflow is weak and places that are sheltered from it get royally screwed, but from what I've seen that is rather uncommon. I would like to spend one cold winter in an area like Lynden to experience the craziness that can happen there every so often.

I was telling Bryant a couple weeks ago when we had dinner over there that the only time out of experience that the wind sheltered areas around Whatcom felt the negative effects of being sheltered was in November 2006. In situations where we are almost entirely reliant on low pressure to the south for cold air, exposed areas fair much better. It takes the frasier outflow quite a bit longer to seep into the protected areas.

 

In that particular instance on November 2006 the rain changed to snow at BLI at 5am and they had snow from DT bellingham North for about 5 hours before it switched to snow around Lake Whatcom. I wokeup at 8:30am to 37*rain and was stunned to turn on the weather channel and see that it was 32*and snowing at the airport. Had to drive to town just to see for myself. It was extremely obvious to see how dependant snow was on the low level seepage. Basically watched the snowline move east and south as the NE WIND went from 12mph to 16 and up and it started gusting. It's incredible to watch happen, even though i was terrified at the time that it would stay rain at my place.

 

It turned to snow and it was an amazing event, but my snow total was about 4" short of North Bellingham. I think BLI recorded 14" with that one.

[Brennan]

Here is an average of the last dozen CFS runs for the month of January. The strong -NAO signal that Phil has talked about is there along with blocking over the Pacific. Very much the look Jan 1943 and Jan 1969 had.

Best if the block was centered a tad further west... but looks fantastic for now!

[snow_wizard]

Best if the block was centered a tad further west... but looks fantastic for now!

 

For sure.  Jan 1969 had that exact configuration centered about 10 degrees further west.  The general look is what counts now.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro holding strong with Saturdays storm 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016101100/ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

[Brennan]

Euro holding strong with Saturdays storm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016101100/ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

I'll be honest, I want everyone to stay safe... but when it comes to wind storms in the fall I hope for the extreme. I hope this thing goes gangbusters. Relying on DJDROPPIN on by the minute updates

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro holding strong with Saturdays storm 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016101100/ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

957mb into Tatoosh Island. Potentially very serious. There was a remarkable difference on tonight's run compared to previous one as the remnants of what is currently Cat 3 Typhoon Songda develops much further south around 40 N and nears that critical 130 W, 40 N threshold. More model craziness on the way as they resolve the abnormal amount of tropical moisture and energy entrained into the westerlies.

[BLI snowman]

I was telling Bryant a couple weeks ago when we had dinner over there that the only time out of experience that the wind sheltered areas around Whatcom felt the negative effects of being sheltered was in November 2006. In situations where we are almost entirely reliant on low pressure to the south for cold air, exposed areas fair much better. It takes the frasier outflow quite a bit longer to seep into the protected areas.

 

In that particular instance on November 2006 the rain changed to snow at BLI at 5am and they had snow from DT bellingham North for about 5 hours before it switched to snow around Lake Whatcom. I wokeup at 8:30am to 37*rain and was stunned to turn on the weather channel and see that it was 32*and snowing at the airport. Had to drive to town just to see for myself. It was extremely obvious to see how dependant snow was on the low level seepage. Basically watched the snowline move east and south as the NE WIND went from 12mph to 16 and up and it started gusting. It's incredible to watch happen, even though i was terrified at the time that it would stay rain at my place.

 

Didn't places out there do just as well in the end though? 12"+ totals. 

 

At the end of the day the totals near Lake Whatcom and Sudden Valley are almost always going to be higher. Orographic lifting helps immensely. 

[BLI snowman]

957mb into Tatoosh Island. Potentially very serious. There was a remarkable difference on tonight's run compared to previous one as the remnants of what is currently Cat 3 Typhoon Songda develops much further south around 40 N and nears that critical 130 W, 40 N threshold. More model craziness on the way as they resolve the abnormal amount of tropical moisture and energy entrained into the westerlies.

 

Yeah, pretty sure that Euro run is the first to show a legitimate high wind threat for the I-5 corridor. Much scarier track with that.

 

October 1962 of course is still showing up as analog a little further out in the 6-10 day range. 116mph incoming.

 

 

[Brennan]

Didn't places out there do just as well in the end though? 12"+ totals.

 

At the end of the day the totals near Lake Whatcom and Sudden Valley are almost always going to be higher. Orographic lifting helps immensely.

Away from the lake a bit and with some elevation I think 12" was reported by Brian in Sudden Valley. I think I had 10" though at 312" which is Lake elevation. On meaningful snow events we do better like i said probably 80% of the time.... but 100% of the time 10" and calm conditions is better than 14" and NE 35.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, pretty sure that Euro run is the first to show a legitimate high wind threat for the I-5 corridor. Much scarier track with that.

 

October 1962 of course is still showing up as analog a little further out in the 6-10 day range. 116mph incoming.

 

 

610analog.off.gif

Nice to see the 1962 analog popping up again. It wasn't in the 12z or 18z.... Yeah, this could be the real deal later this week. We are long overdue for a major regional wind storm and we just might not be able to dodge that bullet this time.

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

*6z NAM in 33 minutes

6z GFS in 2 hours 15 minutes

12z NAM in 6 hours 33 minutes

12z GFS in 8 hours 15 minutes

12z GEM/CMC in 9 hours 30 minutes

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 35 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

I'll be honest, I want everyone to stay safe... but when it comes to wind storms in the fall I hope for the extreme. I hope this thing goes gangbusters. Relying on DJDROPPIN on by the minute updates

I am with you, love the extreme windstorms. 

 

Down to 36F here.  Just took the dogs out and it felt legitimately cold for the first time this fall. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Typhoon Songda is really starting to get pulled up into the westerlies and also note all of the tropical moisture ahead of it rapidly being entrained into our jet. Models tomorrow are going to be crazy and don't be surprised if we see some alarming solutions.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/jma/nwpac/wv-animated.gif

[Phil]

Yeah, pretty sure that Euro run is the first to show a legitimate high wind threat for the I-5 corridor. Much scarier track with that.

 

October 1962 of course is still showing up as analog a little further out in the 6-10 day range. 116mph incoming.

 

 

610analog.off.gif

Well, the progressive analog date for 1962 is 10/14 on there, which is 4 days from now.

[crf450ish]

957mb into Tatoosh Island. Potentially very serious. There was a remarkable difference on tonight's run compared to previous one as the remnants of what is currently Cat 3 Typhoon Songda develops much further south around 40 N and nears that critical 130 W, 40 N threshold. More model craziness on the way as they resolve the abnormal amount of tropical moisture and energy entrained into the westerlies.

 

Model craziness. What's up DJ?.....