October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[crf450ish]

From the looks of things nothing too extraordinary. Rain and some breeziness.

Thank you. But I have to beg to differ...because last night I lost power at my place due to the wind. And the wind has been gusty today...nothing to extreme but last night was almost as comparable to last years November wind storm. Maybe its the topography of my location or something, but I hardly slept last night. 

 

Today has been breezy and gusty. I am not really looking forward to what tomorrow may bring... I'd really rather not replace metal roof sheets on my shop roof again... :|

[Brennan]

Thank you. But I have to beg to differ...because last night I lost power at my place due to the wind. And the wind has been gusty today...nothing to extreme but last night was almost as comparable to last years November wind storm. Maybe its the topography of my location or something, but I hardly slept last night.

 

Today has been breezy and gusty. I am not really looking forward to what tomorrow may bring... I'd really rather not replace metal roof sheets on my shop roof again... :|

Where are you again?

[snow_wizard]

The NAM looked freeking scary for Seattle tomorrow.  The GFS looks pretty much like the 12z and 18z.

[bainbridgekid]

00z GFS has 977mb on a Neah Bay to Whistler track.

 

WRF should be interesting. 

[snow_wizard]

Thank you. But I have to beg to differ...because last night I lost power at my place due to the wind. And the wind has been gusty today...nothing to extreme but last night was almost as comparable to last years November wind storm. Maybe its the topography of my location or something, but I hardly slept last night. 

 

Today has been breezy and gusty. I am not really looking forward to what tomorrow may bring... I'd really rather not replace metal roof sheets on my shop roof again... :|

 

Kind of surprising, but I don't really know all of the fine points of forecasting that area.  The storm tomorrow will track in a way to only have minimal effect over there...at least I would think so.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is pretty unimpressive for the Central Puget Sound. It only shows gust to about 45 knots even near the water.  The track is just a little too far NW.  The NAM track on the other hand...I could see power being out for a week in some places if that were to verify.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF does show SE Vancouver Island getting shellacked.  Gusts to 70 knots over a fairly large area.

[Deweydog]

One thing seems very apparent. The wind field with this system is tiny. Very quick hitter with high bust potential.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, WRF wind gust map looks abysmal for Central Sound. It just amazes me that the tiny difference in track/trajectory (WRF-GFS vs. MM5-NAM) effects the winds that much. Similar to snow in this area: everything has to align perfectly for "severe" weather.

 

I think getting a big snow is easier actually.  The track in Dec 2006 was dead nuts on.  It had a much shallower trajectory and just clipped Neah Bay and then clipped southern Vancouver Island.  The other track that works is landfall around Hoquiam and then the low tracking from SW to NE.

 

In the foothills we have a much easier time getting high winds thanks to the mountain wave events.

[snow_wizard]

One thing seems very apparent. The wind field with this system is tiny. Very quick hitter with high bust potential.

 

Yeah....the overall pressure field is so low over such a large area it really limits the area of tight gradients.

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah....the overall pressure field is so low over such a large area it really limits the area of tight gradients.

Except where it doesn't limit the gradients.

[snow_wizard]

We sure don't have to worry about the next typhoon recurving and effecting the NW.  It's going to plow into Asia.  An obvious sign the global pattern is shifting again.

[snow_wizard]

Except where it doesn't limit the gradients.

 

Near the center of the low is about it.  Some storms have a much larger area of tight gradients.

[snow_wizard]

Somebody must have poured molasses into the computer at NCEP.  The GFS has been running even slower today than yesterday.

[Weather101]

I think getting a big snow is easier actually. The track in Dec 2006 was dead nuts on. It had a much shallower trajectory and just clipped Neah Bay and then clipped southern Vancouver Island. The other track that works is landfall around Hoquiam and then the low tracking from SW to NE.

 

In the foothills we have a much easier time getting high winds thanks to the mountain wave events.

Getting a big snow event isn't easy at all.

[snow_wizard]

Getting a big snow event isn't easy at all.

 

It really is, but it just hasn't been lately.  It used to happen much more often.  I just meant for Seattle there are many more ways to achieved a big snow than there is to achieve a very high wind event.

[GHweatherChris]

Near the center of the low is about it. Some storms have a much larger area of tight gradients.

No , but to act all breezy about tomorrow because it doesn't look to maybe affect a huge part of the area is dumb. Alot of us are gonna experience some major disruption in our lives due to mother nature.

[crf450ish]

Where are you again?

Fruitland, Washington. 30 Miles due north of Davenport, WA. 10 miles north of the Spokane & Columbia river confluence. 

[crf450ish]

Somebody must have poured molasses into the computer at NCEP.  The GFS has been running even slower today than yesterday.

In my experience with computers working to solve problems, the harder the problem is to solve, the longer it takes. Just throwing it out there. 

[Timmy Supercell]

So.. How should Klamath do in tomorrows event? Yesterday I had some fairly high winds from the first low, maybe not 60 but close to it. They actually should have upgraded my advisory to a warning.

 

Assuming some folks have much higher winds tomorrow, should I realistically be getting 70+ at the least? Discount my distance from the center; there are local ingredients and elevation to be factored. Evidently I can have windstorms and be quite a long distance from a low.

[snow_wizard]

No s**t, but to act all breezy about tomorrow because it doesn't look to maybe affect a huge part of the area is dumb. Alot of us are gonna experience some major disruption in our lives due to mother nature.

 

 

No doubt some places will get hit hard.  God forbid that Dewey and I try to put some perspective on it.

[GHweatherChris]

No doubt some places will get hit hard. God forbid that Dewey and I try to put some perspective on it.

No reason to be snippy.

[snow_wizard]

So.. How should Klamath do in tomorrows event? Yesterday I had some fairly high winds from the first low, maybe not 60 but close to it. They actually should have upgraded my advisory to a warning.

 

Assuming some folks have much higher winds tomorrow, should I realistically be getting 70+ at the least? Discount my distance from the center; there are local ingredients and elevation to be factored. Evidently I can have windstorms and be quite a long distance from a low.

 

You have to learn the quirks of your own area.  The WRF might be a good place to start.  I just have no idea how to interpret the models for your area.

[snow_wizard]

No reason to be snippy.

 

I was just returning the favor.

[Deweydog]

No s**t, but to act all breezy about tomorrow because it doesn't look to maybe affect a huge part of the area is dumb. Alot of us are gonna experience some major disruption in our lives due to mother nature.

I think you missed the point, Mr. Sunshine.

 

Point is, this is a compact storm and deviations in the track are going to have a more pronounced impact on who does and does not get hit with anything destructive.

[snow_wizard]

Nice to see we are maintaining normal temps during this stormy period.

[Phil]

We sure don't have to worry about the next typhoon recurving and effecting the NW. It's going to plow into Asia. An obvious sign the global pattern is shifting again.

Typhoons don't have to recurve to influence the NPAC pattern. It's all about the timing of the predecessor WAFs, IMO.

[bainbridgekid]

00z Euro is a bit stronger and a little further NW.

 

967mb over Neah Bay.

[Phil]

Tornado was (preliminarily) rated as an EF2 with winds between 120-130mph.

 

I guess Tundra can claim victory after all.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF seems to have stabilized on the idea of peak winds around 50 knots for Seattle.  Hopefully that will make everyone happy.  Windy enough to be "fun", but low enough to not be too destructive.  The field of 70+ gusts it's painting along and off the coast is pretty impressive to say the least.

[snow_wizard]

Tornado was (preliminarily) rated as an EF2 with winds between 120-130mph.

 

I guess Tundra can claim victory after all.

 

I figured it looked stronger than a 1.

[Bryant]

00z Euro is a bit stronger and a little further NW.

 

967mb over Neah Bay.

 

How's the max gust forecast looking? 

[snow_wizard]

Typhoons don't have to recurve to influence the NPAC pattern. It's all about the timing of the predecessor WAFs, IMO.

 

I was just making the point the steering currents have changed so that indicates things downstream will rearrange also.

[snow_wizard]

How's the max gust forecast looking? 

 

Seattle peaks at 50 knots, Bellingham around 60 knots, and parts of southern Vancouver Island around 70 knots.

[Bryant]

Seattle peaks at 50 knots, Bellingham around 60 knots, and parts of southern Vancouver Island around 70 knots.

 

Thanks Jim

[snow_wizard]

I'm liking the looks of week two a bit more on the GFS again.  Interestingly the near term has trended cooler now with 850s at or below normal for most of the next 6 days.  Nice SE ridge shows up again in a few days.

[snow_wizard]

Peak winds.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I briefly had the wrong map posted above.  You might want to refresh if you saw it a few minutes ago.

[Bryant]

Peak winds.

 

ECMWF has had the strongest winds over my area for a few runs now, but not getting my hopes up

 

Edit: Now that I see the new image, it's not as strong as it has been, but still a healthy amount of wind none the less

[ShawniganLake]

Peak winds.

Looks like 60-70kts here.  I will make sure the chainsaw is sharpened up and ready to go.  Would be lots of free firewood blocking the roads around here if that verified.