October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[crf450ish]

I have found that geese migrations are generally unreliable analogs.  What I like to use is squirrel girth.  The fatter they are, the colder the winter.  They are some of the fattest I've seen this year.

Are you being for real or what? Because I have also heard some things that I first thought were pretty outlandish, but am backpedaling  on those thoughts now. For example the tops of conifer trees being loaded down with cones and bees nests being underground this summer more so than usual- stuff like that. How much validity is there to these things?

[Deweydog]

This must be good news. This past Winter the only real Wintry event we got down to sea level was the minor PDX snow event in early January which coincides with the strongest Northern hadley cell.

Air tight!!!

[luminen]

Had a nice downpour at 5pm today. Interestingly, the sky was partly cloudy with the sun shining so brightly I had to use sunglasses to drive.

 

In other news, I had a dream last night where it snowed @ -6C. Started out very lightly but then increased in intensity.

 

Can't wait for the first snow!!! 

[luminen]

Tons of snow in Whistler and surrounding area today. Avalanche potential is high in certain areas.

 

http://cdn.usatsimg.com/image/thumb/660-495nw/9615039.jpg

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have found that geese migrations are generally unreliable analogs.  What I like to use is squirrel girth.  The fatter they are, the colder the winter.  They are some of the fattest I've seen this year.

GOOD POINT!    Also, slug egg size and populations are also highly accurate. The struggles are real when actually trying to find those little bastards in the day time. Makes counting a real pain... 

[MossMan]

Lightning in the distance.

[Farmboy]

The period between now and the first real snow-producing cold air mass = boring...   Kinda reminds me of the period from about February 15th to looking for the first 70's showing up in the spring....

[MossMan]

The period between now and the first real snow-producing cold air mass = boring... Kinda reminds me of the period from about February 15th to looking for the first 70's showing up in the spring....

Yep...and not even a windstorm to look forward to.

[Dave]

Are you being for real or what? Because I have also heard some things that I first thought were pretty outlandish, but am backpedaling  on those thoughts now. For example the tops of conifer trees being loaded down with cones and bees nests being underground this summer more so than usual- stuff like that. How much validity is there to these things?

Admittedly, I am missing some analog years, but allow me to provide some evidence for my squirrel girth hypothesis.

 

I present to you the squirrel of 2014-2015.  Not a single snowflake fell that year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/qtnEgu4.jpg

 

The next squirrel is the squirrel of 2015-2016.  Again, not a single flake.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Y4hbYHg.jpg

 

Next, we have squirrel #3.  This image was taken 4 hours ago.

 

http://i.imgur.com/kyK1S8V.jpg

 

We'll see what happens, but this winter looks promising.

[Phil]

The folklore I hear about includes the number of seed balls on sycamore trees, squirrel tails, wooly bear caterpillars, and the number of humid days in October.

[Timmy Supercell]

and the number of humid days in October.

 

Well this year should hit the jackpot in that area.

 

And like he said before; snow is pretty tricky in general. The mountains here got pounded last winter and the lowlands got nothing. Go figure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 2.18" on the day now. 7.76" in the past 5 days. 

[Front Ranger]

 

Next, we have squirrel #3.  This image was taken 4 hours ago.

 

http://i.imgur.com/kyK1S8V.jpg

 

We'll see what happens, but this winter looks promising.

 

That squirrel just ate his entire family. Sad, but it will get him through the winter...just as it got his great, great, great, great, great, great, great granddad through 1949-50.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With the radar down it is impossible to know how much more rain I may get this evening. Salem now up to 1.35" on the day and well over 8.5" on the month. With that they have passed 1924 and moved into 3rd place on the wettest October list...

[FroYoBro]

Admittedly, I am missing some analog years, but allow me to provide some evidence for my squirrel girth hypothesis.

 

I present to you the squirrel of 2014-2015.  Not a single snowflake fell that year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/qtnEgu4.jpg

 

The next squirrel is the squirrel of 2015-2016.  Again, not a single flake.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Y4hbYHg.jpg

 

Next, we have squirrel #3.  This image was taken 4 hours ago.

 

http://i.imgur.com/kyK1S8V.jpg

 

We'll see what happens, but this winter looks promising.

 

This is easily the best forecast for an upcoming winter ever. 

[TT-SEA]

With the radar down it is impossible to know how much more rain I may get this evening. Salem now up to 1.35" on the day and well over 8.5" on the month. With that they have passed 1924 and moved into 3rd place on the wettest October list...

 

Use the HRRR radar simulation to get an idea of what is coming.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runTime=2016101801&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=37&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=36&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

 

There is plenty more rain coming through tomorrow morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is a fairly safe bet that November will see far less rain than this October. Looking at the top ten wettest October's at Salem, all of them except 1968 had less rain in November as they did in October. It seemed as if most of the following November's had near average precip.

 

Interestingly the following December generally had below normal precipitation. The two very notable exceptions being December 1955 and 1968. 

[crf450ish]

[Timmy Supercell]

Now that KRTX will be down until at least Fri/Sat - watch there be more severe thunderstorms, sharknadoes and massive rain events.

[snow_wizard]

With the radar down it is impossible to know how much more rain I may get this evening. Salem now up to 1.35" on the day and well over 8.5" on the month. With that they have passed 1924 and moved into 3rd place on the wettest October list...

 

1924....Hmmmm.....

[Tundra]

Admittedly, I am missing some analog years, but allow me to provide some evidence for my squirrel girth hypothesis.

 

I present to you the squirrel of 2014-2015.  Not a single snowflake fell that year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/qtnEgu4.jpg

 

The next squirrel is the squirrel of 2015-2016.  Again, not a single flake.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Y4hbYHg.jpg

 

Next, we have squirrel #3.  This image was taken 4 hours ago.

 

http://i.imgur.com/kyK1S8V.jpg

 

We'll see what happens, but this winter looks promising.

 

That squirrel is getting ready for the long cold snowy Winter ahead!

[snow_wizard]

Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap?

 

Admittedly, I am missing some analog years, but allow me to provide some evidence for my squirrel girth hypothesis.

 

I present to you the squirrel of 2014-2015.  Not a single snowflake fell that year.

 

 

The next squirrel is the squirrel of 2015-2016.  Again, not a single flake.

 

 

Next, we have squirrel #3.  This image was taken 4 hours ago.

 

 

We'll see what happens, but this winter looks promising.

 

Good grief that thing is FAT!!

[snow_wizard]

I just looked at the latest update of the ECMWF weeklies.  The anomalies being shown are so weak after week two it's almost meaningless.  Obviously a lot of ensemble spread.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem will end the day around 2" behind October 1950 and 2.5" behind October 1947. Even though the next two weeks do not look nearly as wet, we may be able to take down the all-time monthly record. 

[Phil]

Well this year should hit the jackpot in that area.

 

And like he said before; snow is pretty tricky in general. The mountains here got pounded last winter and the lowlands got nothing. Go figure.

Probably coincidence, but the four most epic winters of my lifetime occurred in years where the sycamore trees were loaded with seed balls. Like, branches drooping under the weight. Very noticeable.

 

This year, the sycamores are once again loaded with seed balls, maybe to a higher extent than I've ever seen before. Of course I'm predicting a mild east coast winter, but maybe the trees know something I don't.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Admittedly, I am missing some analog years, but allow me to provide some evidence for my squirrel girth hypothesis.

 

I present to you the squirrel of 2014-2015. Not a single snowflake fell that year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/qtnEgu4.jpg

 

The next squirrel is the squirrel of 2015-2016. Again, not a single flake.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Y4hbYHg.jpg

 

Next, we have squirrel #3. This image was taken 4 hours ago.

 

http://i.imgur.com/kyK1S8V.jpg

 

We'll see what happens, but this winter looks promising.

Omg!! I better get to the store and stock up on food. Because if that squirrel is any correlation to what is coming then we better prepare now. #squirrelgargantious..

[snow_wizard]

Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap?

 

Over half the winters on his list had something to offer and some were fabulous.

[snow_wizard]

Salem was 27/5 on Christmas day. 

 

There were about 2 weeks of really cold weather in December that year and then the rest of the winter torched. 

 

That December event was epic though.  My area had a foot of snow going into the Arctic blast.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Now that KRTX will be down until at least Fri/Sat - watch there be more severe thunderstorms, sharknadoes and massive rain events.

AND possibly very large man-eating squirrels... WE ARE ALL DOOMED!

[Phil]

I just looked at the latest update of the ECMWF weeklies. The anomalies being shown are so weak after week two it's almost meaningless. Obviously a lot of ensemble spread.

I'm seeing something different. Looks like a +PNA/GOA vortex pattern through November/into December.,not what I was/am expecting. If anything looks sort of Niño-esque.

 

My personal thoughts are: GOA ridge develops in November and strengthens into December.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like October will finish with a moderately negative SOI value. A few values as low as -25 over the last week.

 

Definitely not typical of a Niña fall/winter. Very weak background state as of late.

 

I like the Aussie site for SOI.  According to that October will still end up solidly positive.  The latest daily number was +25.

 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php

[Phil]

I like the Aussie site for SOI. According to that October will still end up solidly positive. The latest daily number was +25.

 

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/index.php

I'm just using the CPC data. I think the daily calculations on the Aussie site are preliminary (w/ a different baseline too).

[snow_wizard]

I'm seeing something different. Looks like a +PNA/GOA vortex pattern through November/into December.,not what I was/am expecting. If anything looks sort of Niño-esque.

 

My personal thoughts are: GOA ridge develops in November and strengthens into December.

 

The anomalies were the weakest I've seen on the Euro weeklies on the WeatherBell site.  I want November to be mild, but the weakness of the anomalies being shown presumably means there is a lot of uncertainty. 

[snow_wizard]

I'm just using the CPC data. I think the daily calculations on the Aussie site are preliminary (w/ a different baseline too).

 

The Aussies only use data from Tahiti and Darwin.  I think the CPC SOI is a much more complicated formula.

[MossMan]

Over half the winters on his list had something to offer and some were fabulous.

I am getting more excited by the day...this winter is going to be special, I can feel it!!

[Phil]

The anomalies were the weakest I've seen on the Euro weeklies on the WeatherBell site. I want November to be mild, but the weakness of the anomalies being shown presumably means there is a lot of uncertainty.

Here's what I have.

 

Week three:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2FAD7F9D-C8D8-47F3-A142-362409C62BAA_zpsu8ujmepz.png

 

Week four:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C077B36D-FB3B-4F32-B79C-84F0DDEA8F93_zpstztcfygn.png

 

Week five:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B52C768-6EBA-4591-8BE1-7A64484734AA_zpsrddrqxhn.png

 

Week six:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/94923783-0014-4465-AF8B-726DD60A3436_zpsnvfpxxxc.png

[snow_wizard]

Here's what I have.

 

 

The anoms near the Aleutians look a bit more robust than what I was looking at, but pretty much the same look.  Even on yours the positive anoms over the NW are very weak.

[snow_wizard]

I am getting more excited by the day...this winter is going to be special, I can feel it!!

 

It would be a shocker if this one isn't at least decent.

[Phil]

The anoms near the Aleutians look a bit more robust than what I was looking at, but pretty much the same look. Even on yours the positive anoms over the NW are very weak.

Of course, once you get into weeks 4-6 on an ensemble mean, you're always going to have significant spread. I'd still argue there's a signal present, however.

 

Want to get forcing to around 150E to oust that GOA vortex regime, IMO.

[Dave]

Up to 2.18" on the day now. 7.76" in the past 5 days. 

This has easily been the most craptastic weather I can ever remember for the first half of October around here.  Just utterly miserable.  Normally, there's at least some good weather in early October, but it seems like we transitioned into mid-November weather super early this year.

 

I'm guessing the weather gods will be favorable to us later this winter after dealing out this punishment.  If it wasn't so dry prior to this deluge, I'm sure there would have been plenty of flooding and mudslides.

 

Looking forward to using the snow shovel later this winter.