October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Fascinating surface pressure composite for the first half of October.  Amazing to see such a well defined baroclinic signature over that long of a time frame.  Something like that shifted a bit south in the winter would be amazing for us.

 

 

 

 

[crf450ish]

Admittedly, I am missing some analog years, but allow me to provide some evidence for my squirrel girth hypothesis.

 

I present to you the squirrel of 2014-2015. Not a single snowflake fell that year.

 

http://i.imgur.com/qtnEgu4.jpg

 

The next squirrel is the squirrel of 2015-2016. Again, not a single flake.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Y4hbYHg.jpg

 

Next, we have squirrel #3. This image was taken 4 hours ago.

 

http://i.imgur.com/kyK1S8V.jpg

 

We'll see what happens, but this winter looks promising.

Admittedly, I have fallen into the folklore beliefs from time to time. I have a tendency to get myself so psyched up about weather, especially winter, that I'll become gullible before questioning. Now that I've shifted my focus on weather to a more scientific aspect, I rely less on non scientific anecdotal evidence..... There ya have it

[snow_wizard]

This has easily been the most craptastic weather I can ever remember for the first half of October around here.  Just utterly miserable.  Normally, there's at least some good weather in early October, but it seems like we transitioned into mid-November weather super early this year.

 

I'm guessing the weather gods will be favorable to us later this winter after dealing out this punishment.  If it wasn't so dry prior to this deluge, I'm sure there would have been plenty of flooding and mudslides.

 

Looking forward to using the snow shovel later this winter.

 

No doubt it has been about as bad as it gets this early.  Thankfully we did have the chilly dry interlude where many places got their first frost.  The fall color is MUCH better this year than the last couple.

[Phil]

Fascinating surface pressure composite for the first half of October. Amazing to see such a well defined baroclinic signature over that long of a time frame. Something like that shifted a bit south in the winter would be amazing for us.

Nice look @ 500mb as well.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/017732CF-7770-4E6A-A191-5B85E19EC012_zpsxr3yslmn.gif

[crf450ish]

It would be a shocker if this one isn't at least decent.

When's the last time your confidence in the upcoming winter was this high this early?

[Timmy Supercell]

This has easily been the most craptastic weather I can ever remember for the first half of October around here.  Just utterly miserable.  Normally, there's at least some good weather in early October, but it seems like we transitioned into mid-November weather super early this year.

 

I'm guessing the weather gods will be favorable to us later this winter after dealing out this punishment.  If it wasn't so dry prior to this deluge, I'm sure there would have been plenty of flooding and mudslides.

 

Looking forward to using the snow shovel later this winter.

 

I know I'm going to get punched for saying this, but when I lived in Hillsboro, OR prior to 2010.. I enjoyed the humid 60-65 degree rains. I didn't care if I had to dress up for it, it felt great. I very rarely experience this on the east sides and I'm now longing for it. 

 

The first couple days I visited Wilsonville last December (just after the flooding), reminded me what great Falls you guys get on the west sides. I'm however not a fan of 40 or 35 degree rain.

 

And the sunbreaks, between October showers. Indescribable air. 

[James Jones]

Salem will end the day around 2" behind October 1950 and 2.5" behind October 1947. Even though the next two weeks do not look nearly as wet, we may be able to take down the all-time monthly record. 

PDX has already recorded more rain this month than an average November. Impressive stuff.

[luvssnow_spokane]

When's the last time your confidence in the upcoming winter was this high this early?

like every year... he is exuberant even when it looks bad. He is a super positive person.

[Dave]

I know I'm going to get punched for saying this, but when I lived in Hillsboro, OR prior to 2010.. I enjoyed the humid 60-65 degree rains. I didn't care if I had to dress up for it, it felt great. I very rarely experience this on the east sides and I'm now longing for it. 

 

The first couple days I visited Wilsonville last December (just after the flooding), reminded me what great Falls you guys get on the west sides. I'm however not a fan of 40 or 35 degree rain.

 

And the sunbreaks, between October showers. Indescribable air. 

I don't mind 65 degree rain, but we've been getting 50 degree rain for hours this evening.  Lately, we've been getting the NWS forecast of 70% chance of rain that turns into rain 70% of the day with over an inch accumulation.

 

I love 60 degree weather with no rain and nice, crisp breezes.  Hasn't been much of that yet.

 

Very annoying to have the radar out as well.  Sounds like it will be down for quite a while.

[Deweydog]

I know I'm going to get punched for saying this, but when I lived in Hillsboro, OR prior to 2010.. I enjoyed the humid 60-65 degree rains. I didn't care if I had to dress up for it, it felt great. I very rarely experience this on the east sides and I'm now longing for it.

 

The first couple days I visited Wilsonville last December (just after the flooding), reminded me what great Falls you guys get on the west sides. I'm however not a fan of 40 or 35 degree rain.

 

And the sunbreaks, between October showers. Indescribable air.

Freedom of speech has upticked here significantly. No punches!!!

[crf450ish]

like every year... he is exuberant even when it looks bad. He is a super positive person.

I know that. I wasn't being sarcastic in the least bit. I've payed attention to his posts for a long time.

[TT-SEA]

PDX has already recorded more rain this month than an average November. Impressive stuff.

 

Very impressive.  

[TT-SEA]

like every year... he is exuberant even when it looks bad. He is a super positive person.

 

Until he is not.  He demands super-positivity from everyone until he decides its gone bad and then we get expletive-filled rants and people are mocked for being happy about anything.   

 

Just a general observation of course.  

[stuffradio]

I don't mind 65 degree rain, but we've been getting 50 degree rain for hours this evening.  Lately, we've been getting the NWS forecast of 70% chance of rain that turns into rain 70% of the day with over an inch accumulation.

 

I love 60 degree weather with no rain and nice, crisp breezes.  Hasn't been much of that yet.

 

Very annoying to have the radar out as well.  Sounds like it will be down for quite a while.

50 degree rain is ok, it's the 30-40 degree rain that gets me in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

It would be a shocker if this one isn't at least decent.

 

This early heavy rain pattern makes it feel like something good is coming.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This early heavy rain pattern makes it feel like something good is coming.   

 

It will be interesting to see where we go from here. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I know that. I wasn't being sarcastic in the least bit. I've payed attention to his posts for a long time.

I did not mean to come across harsh or rude but basically his approach to the winter outlook , around this time of year is exactly the same as every past year. A lot of conjecture and what-if's... but in the end everyone is guessing. He just expresses it more like it will happen not that it might happen.

[Phil]

Both the GEFS and CMC ensembles agree on the return of the Niño-esque Pacific firehose pattern, into at least into early November. Can't say I'm a fan of it, either.

 

Both ensemble suites resemble a freakin' super niño by day 16.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C2C3E4F5-0B77-4DD6-BE20-AFC8F6718BC2_zpsemgoztcu.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A19445C4-D4A9-455C-9CDF-01961090FD02_zpsmkmttb4x.png

[BLI snowman]

Today might have been the most active weather day without radar in the Portland area since, like, 1950.

[HighlandExperience]

I did not mean to come across harsh or rude but basically his approach to the winter outlook , around this time of year is exactly the same as every past year. A lot of conjecture and what-if's... but in the end everyone is guessing. He just expresses it more like it will happen not that it might happen.

Well I marked 2016 - 2017 many years ago as the beginning of the new mini ice age.

[wx_statman]

Today might have been the most active weather day without radar in the Portland area since, like, 1950.

 

They need to get that radar fixed. I would have like to see the echoes on some of today's downpours.

 

Its a weird feeling not being able to check. Sort of like going outside without your cell phone. 

[Brennan]

Both the GEFS and CMC ensembles agree on the return of the Niño-esque Pacific firehose pattern, into at least into early November. Can't say I'm a fan of it, either.

 

Both ensemble suites resemble a freakin' super niño by day 16.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C2C3E4F5-0B77-4DD6-BE20-AFC8F6718BC2_zpsemgoztcu.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A19445C4-D4A9-455C-9CDF-01961090FD02_zpsmkmttb4x.png

Don't atmospheric conditions mimic nina often during fall of NINOS and vice versa. It seems pretty common.

[Brennan]

Well I marked 2016 - 2017 many years ago as the beginning of the new mini ice age.

Phil, wasn't it you saying the earth would see significant cooling by 2016?

[BLI snowman]

They need to get that radar fixed. I would have like to see the echoes on some of today's downpours.

 

Its a weird feeling not being able to check. Sort of like going outside without your cell phone. 

 

Been really on/off for awhile now.  If today had been about 30 degrees colder, some heads would have rolled.

 

Incidentally, I also haven't had a cell phone for the past week. Getting some work done 

[Phil]

Don't atmospheric conditions mimic nina often during fall of NINOS and vice versa. It seems pretty common.

I'm not sure I'd go that far. Intraseasonal forcings can/do fall into states unrepresentative of the background state, though, and this year the background state is quite weak, so I guess it's not surprising.

 

It's the persistence that's been notable. Since September that GOA vortex has basically refused to budge. If it lasts into/through November, the statistical odds of NPAC blocking in DJF will decrease substantially.

[wx_statman]

Been really on/off for awhile now.  If today had been about 30 degrees colder, some heads would have rolled.

 

Incidentally, I also haven't had a cell phone for the past week. Getting some work done 

 

Wow, no radar and no cell phone. All you need now is a newspaper and top hat. 

[catnip]

Accuweather's Winter Outlook:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/canada-20162017-winter-outlook/60738013

[snow_wizard]

Another epic CFS run yesterday for this winter.  It depicts a decently cold January and very cold and very snowy February.  A -7C negative departure for a monthly average would be truly epic!  I've never seen runs like this in previous winters, and they are popping up somewhat regularly.

[snow_wizard]

Accuweather's Winter Outlook:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/canada-20162017-winter-outlook/60738013

 

At least its not a torch!

[snow_wizard]

I'm not sure I'd go that far. Intraseasonal forcings can/do fall into states unrepresentative of the background state, though, and this year the background state is quite weak, so I guess it's not surprising.

 

It's the persistence that's been notable. Since September that GOA vortex has basically refused to budge. If it lasts into/through November, the statistical odds of NPAC blocking in DJF will decrease substantially.

 

We just had the big block a week or so back.

[Phil]

Phil, wasn't it you saying the earth would see significant cooling by 2016?

I was/am forecasting a period of (overall) cooling beginning in 2017, +/- ~1yr. Thermal inertia of the oceans obviously a factor here.

[crf450ish]

Been really on/off for awhile now.  If today had been about 30 degrees colder, some heads would have rolled.

 

Incidentally, I also haven't had a cell phone for the past week. Getting some work done 

How does one survive like this?

[snow_wizard]

How does one survive like this?

 

Amazingly mankind survived without them for the first one million years of walking the Earth.

[Phil]

We just had the big block a week or so back.

I'm referring more to the underlying pattern over the last 6/7 weeks. The NPAC jet has been relatively strong.

[Phil]

Amazingly mankind survived without them for the first one million years of walking the Earth.

You don't have a cellphone?

[crf450ish]

I was/am forecasting a period of (overall) cooling beginning in 2017, +/- ~1yr. Thermal inertia of the oceans obviously a factor here.

You know, it is going to be really interesting to see how the politicians and media play with this.

 

Although not nearly as educated as most on here about atmospheric sciences, I believe our weather here on earth is directly connected to that of the sun. When the sunspot numbers are higher, there is more magnetic activity between the sun and earth. I'm not entirely sure how it affects our weather but it does. Why and how else would low sunspot numbers coincide with global temps? What fascinates me is the lag time between weather on the sun and weather on earth. 

[Phil]

You know, it is going to be really interesting to see how the politicians and media play with this.

 

Although not nearly as educated as most on here about atmospheric sciences, I believe our weather here on earth is directly connected to that of the sun. When the sunspot numbers are higher, there is more magnetic activity between the sun and earth. I'm not entirely sure how it affects our weather but it does. Why and how else would low sunspot numbers coincide with global temps? What fascinates me is the lag time between weather on the sun and weather on earth.

Oh there's definitely a connection. Actually there are multiple connections on various timescales that are well established within the peer reviewed literature. The most fascinating aspect, from my perspective, is the impressive correlation between ENSO and intra-cycle/full cycle solar wind variations. Lots of peer reviewed literature on the matter, but physical explanations are lacking and/or highly uncertain.

 

Even many of the most diehard "alarmist" scientists will admit to the solar forcing on seasonal-to-decadal circulation(s), from the stratosphere to the tropical troposphere. The disagreement begins when we move from "regional" temperature variations to "global" temperature variations. Despite the evidence that the degree and distribution of tropical convection/cloud cover (hence the systematic radiative/energy budget) is significantly altered by variations in solar activity, it is often dismissed without quantitative (or even qualitative) reasoning. These guys will do anything to inflate CO2's responsibility in the post-1976 warming, because virtually the entirety of the warming from 1850 to 1950 requires a natural explanation, and admitting the existence of natural climate change undermines the proposed positive feedback loops required for significant AGW. This in spite of the widespread evidence of very large global climate swings within the Holocene..much larger than anything observed in recent millennia.

[BLI snowman]

How does one survive like this?

 

Not sure. I feel like just a shell of a human being.

[wx_statman]

Oh there's definitely a connection. Actually there are multiple connections on various timescales that are well established within the peer reviewed literature. The most fascinating aspect, from my perspective, is the impressive correlation between ENSO and intra-cycle/full cycle solar wind variations. Lots of peer reviewed literature on the matter, but physical explanations are lacking and/or highly uncertain.

 

Even many of the most diehard "alarmist" scientists will admit to the solar forcing on seasonal-to-decadal circulation(s), from the stratosphere to the tropical troposphere. The disagreement begins when we move from "regional" temperature variations to "global" temperature variations. Despite the evidence that the degree and distribution of tropical convection/cloud cover (hence the systematic radiative/energy budget) is significantly altered by variations in solar activity, it is often dismissed without quantitative (or even qualitative) reasoning. These guys will do anything to inflate CO2's responsibility in the post-1976 warming, because virtually the entirety of the warming from 1850 to 1950 requires a natural explanation, and admitting the existence of natural climate change undermines the proposed positive feedback loops required for significant AGW. This in spite of the widespread evidence of very large global climate swings within the Holocene..much larger than anything observed in recent millennia.

 

This is nonsense.

 

First of all, we've been pumping out greenhouse gases since the 19th century. And second, nobody in the scientific community denies the existence of natural climate change. That would be absurd. The issue is with GHG's, especially CO2, reflecting longwave radiation back towards the planet and adding an unnatural amount of warming to the system, regardless of background state. 

[crf450ish]

This is nonsense.

 

First of all, we've been pumping out greenhouse gases since the 19th century. And second, nobody in the scientific community denies the existence of natural climate change. That would be absurd. The issue is with GHG's, especially CO2, reflecting longwave radiation back towards the planet and adding an unnatural amount of warming to the system, regardless of background state. 

Blame china and their non existent air quality laws....1.3 billion people to provide power for and they'll do it without any air scrubbers on their boiler exhaust systems etc....