October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Trainwreck]

Everyone is getting rest for the Omsi meeting tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

The updated CPC winter forecast looks better than the one from a month ago.  It indicates cold for the far NW for Jan - Mar with a pretty decent north to south temperature gradient.

[Weather101]

The updated CPC winter forecast looks better than the one from a month ago. It indicates cold for the far NW for Jan - Mar with a pretty decent north to south temperature gradient.

How many snow events do you believe we may see this year?

[ShawniganLake]

Exciting night on the forum!! Highlights of today's weather, mostly sunny and pleasant early afternoon, 3 minutes of heavy rain around 4ish.

50/41 here today. 2 rounds of heavy rain this afternoon totalled 0.61" with a monthly total of 11.02". Currently sitting at 43F.

[MossMan]

How many snow events do you believe we may see this year?

2 major, 3 minors

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Speaking of memorable... 

 

Ok now I don’t know where this falls on the records list for BLI... But this has to be up there as one of the coldest snowfalls on record for them and it happened during the “Wet Snowmaggeddon of December 1996”.

 

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 9:55AM it was 14.0*F at BLI with HEAVY SNOW. Visibility 0.2 miles

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 2:58PM it was 12.2*F at BLI with SNOW. Visibility 0.2 miles

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 3:52PM it was 10.4*F at BLI with LIGHT SNOW. Visibility 5.5 miles. 

AFTERNOON HIGH OF 12.2*F???? WITH HEAVY SNOW??? ARE YOU KIDDING ME. 

 

I’m still feeling the pain of not being home during that event. 

 

1989-1996 was actually pretty top notch in Whatcom County. 

 

January/February/March 1989 had a sustained cold period with snow, a top tier arctic blast, and then a good snowstorm in early March. December/January 90-91 were amazing here. Nobody knows it anywhere else but it snowed like 20+ inches in Bellingham in early January 1991, and that was after the near 2 weeks of arctic blasts/snow the second half of December. Then there is December/January 92-93 with a 3 week period of generally below freezing temps and a fair amount of snow. January 1996 featured a 2 week blast with snow. November-December 1996 were top 3 on record for cold/snow combined. Week long blast in November 96, then 10 days of freezing temps and 4 feet of snow in December 96... Probably the best 6 to 8 year period since 1949-1957 or 1968-1973 here. It would seem we are due for another really good stretch. 2004-2009 was good here, but nothing in comparison to any of those runs. 

 

Sure would love to see another event like that while I'm here. I also missed the brunt of it because my parents decided to drive to the BC interior after Christmas; though we almost got stuck due to blizzard conditions in the Fraser Valley. By the time I got back the only sign of it was piles of snow and broken branches.

 

It's also coming on 10 years since November 2006, time sure flies. That was a memorable event, short but very sweet. I believe it was pretty good over there too. Bellingham and Victoria usually seem to share in good events.

[snow_wizard]

2 major, 3 minors

 

I think this could be close.  I'm becoming increasingly confident we will get hit during the heart of the winter this time.

[snow_wizard]

50/41 here today. 2 rounds of heavy rain this afternoon totalled 0.61" with a monthly total of 11.02". Currently sitting at 43F.

 

Finally getting to where it feels pretty consistently chilly.  I would like to see a clear night or two so we could get some more lows in the 30s though.

[snow_wizard]

The upcoming pattern sure appears to be a god awful mess.  The models will really struggle to figure it out.

[snow_wizard]

Looking a little more deeply into the wet October thing...I'm finding the wettest Octobers in the first half of the 20th century when combined with cold neutral or La Nina consistently led to good winters.

 

1910-11- Epic cold and snowy January in Whatcom County, modestly cold January with some snow Puget Sound area.

 

1906 - 07 - Very cold and snowy January for much of Western WA

 

1915 - 16 - Epic winter

 

1921 - 22 - Excellent cold and snowy winter

 

1924 - 25 - Epic cold December with heavy snow going into the cold wave.

 

VERY impressive list.

 

Going back even further you had...

 

 

1853 - 54 - Epic cold January

 

1884 - 85 - Coldest / snowiest December on record.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking a little more deeply into the wet October thing...I'm finding the wettest Octobers in the first half of the 20th century when combined with cold neutral or La Nina consistently led to good winters.

 

1910-11- Epic cold and snowy January in Whatcom County, modestly cold January with some snow Puget Sound area.

 

1906 - 07 - Very cold and snowy January for much of Western WA

 

1915 - 16 - Epic winter

 

1921 - 22 - Excellent cold and snowy winter

 

1924 - 25 - Epic cold December with heavy snow going into the cold wave.

 

VERY impressive list.

 

Going back even further you had...

 

 

1853 - 54 - Epic cold January

 

1884 - 85 - Coldest / snowiest December on record.

Isn't this wet pattern, GOA trough, the exact opposite of what you were wanting to see this month.

[snow_wizard]

Isn't this wet pattern, GOA trough, the exact opposite of what you were wanting to see this month.

 

It hasn't been terrible overall.  It's been reasonably cool and the anomaly centers are different than you would see with a warm ENSO situation.  There has actually been a GOA ridge at times this month.  Not all wet Octobers are caused by the same thing.  I will say not having an outright cold pattern this month makes it more important than ever to not have a cold November though.

[snow_wizard]

This is certainly the type of season where patience will pay off.  The longer we go before getting seriously cold the better off we will be (to a point of course).  I would like to start seeing warning shots of chilly weather around mid December or so.

[snow_wizard]

As you can see there hasn't been a classic GOA low this month on the whole.  The lowest anoms are displaced eastward and by the time the month is over it will look better than this in a lot of ways.

[Brennan]

Sure would love to see another event like that while I'm here. I also missed the brunt of it because my parents decided to drive to the BC interior after Christmas; though we almost got stuck due to blizzard conditions in the Fraser Valley. By the time I got back the only sign of it was piles of snow and broken branches.

 

It's also coming on 10 years since November 2006, time sure flies. That was a memorable event, short but very sweet. I believe it was pretty good over there too. Bellingham and Victoria usually seem to share in good events.

Chilliwack seems to kill it in snow situations, which is odd given they are 33' elevation. They are in the frasier valley and pretty far east, but that doesn't typically enhance snowfall rates...at least in Bellingham it doesn't. Is there some sort of convergence that forms there or something?

 

Just 20 miles NE of Sumas...

[snow_wizard]

Chilliwack seems to kill it in snow situations, which is odd given they are 33' elevation. They are in the frasier valley and pretty far east, but that doesn't typically enhance snowfall rates...at least in Bellingham it doesn't. Is there some sort of convergence that forms there or something?

 

Just 20 miles NE of Sumas...

 

It usually comes down to where the Arctic front stalls.  If it blasts past Chilliwack they won't get much.  There are probably many times it just seeps that far and stops.  When that happens they score.  That type of thing happens in any outflow area.

[Phil]

Looking a little more deeply into the wet October thing...I'm finding the wettest Octobers in the first half of the 20th century when combined with cold neutral or La Nina consistently led to good winters.

 

1910-11- Epic cold and snowy January in Whatcom County, modestly cold January with some snow Puget Sound area.

 

1906 - 07 - Very cold and snowy January for much of Western WA

 

1915 - 16 - Epic winter

 

1921 - 22 - Excellent cold and snowy winter

 

1924 - 25 - Epic cold December with heavy snow going into the cold wave.

 

VERY impressive list.

 

Going back even further you had...

 

 

1853 - 54 - Epic cold January

 

1884 - 85 - Coldest / snowiest December on record.

I'm guessing this correlation breaks down after the mid/late 1970s? System state is nothing like it was during the late 19th century to early/mid 20th century, especially over the Pacific and IndoChina domains.

[TT-SEA]

Another beast offshore on Monday.    But no one is talking about it at all.    Obviously this one will stay farther offshore but it does look similar.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Couple nice pics from this morning.

[TT-SEA]

A sunny start to the day... and on a weekend.

 

And its homecoming day for my boys.   

 

Good timing on a nice day.

[stuffradio]

Chilliwack seems to kill it in snow situations, which is odd given they are 33' elevation. They are in the frasier valley and pretty far east, but that doesn't typically enhance snowfall rates...at least in Bellingham it doesn't. Is there some sort of convergence that forms there or something?

 

Just 20 miles NE of Sumas...

Last Christmas, Chilliwack got 6" of snow or something. It made me sad because I got nothing, but at least I was able to drive there for Christmas and see snow.

[snow_wizard]

I'm guessing this correlation breaks down after the mid/late 1970s? System state is nothing like it was during the late 19th century to early/mid 20th century, especially over the Pacific and IndoChina domains.

 

The correlation has still been good even more recently.  2003-04 was the wettest Oct on record and we had a nice round of winter weather that season also.  I just think it's another favorable sign for us.

[stuffradio]

The correlation has still been good even more recently.  2003-04 was the wettest Oct on record and we had a nice round of winter weather that season also.  I just think it's another favorable sign for us.

In Abbotsford, 2003 was much wetter in October so far, but in November there were a couple cold snaps and a trace of snow, and December had a cold snap just after Christmas, and we got about 4 or 5" of snow on New Years Eve. So up here we got snow in 03-04, but it wasn't impressive. We had a trace of snow on the 14th of April too.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful Saturday... 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Dropped down to a chilly 36F for a low this morning. Cold and damp out there.

[stuffradio]

The best December's with at least half a foot for snow up here I've seen so far that I can actually find data for in Abbotsford are, 2008, 2007, 2003, 2002 (just under half a foot at ~5.5 inches), 2000, 1998 (almost a foot of snow), '96 totals are close to 08 at this particular weather station, 92 had just over a foot of snow, 1990 was also getting up there with 73cm, almost 2.5 feet of snow. I only went from 2016 to 1990 in this list with December totals reaching close to 6" of snow.

[snow_wizard]

In Abbotsford, 2003 was much wetter in October so far, but in November there were a couple cold snaps and a trace of snow, and December had a cold snap just after Christmas, and we got about 4 or 5" of snow on New Years Eve. So up here we got snow in 03-04, but it wasn't impressive. We had a trace of snow on the 14th of April too.

 

The late December through early Jan period had a really solid run of winter weather for many places.  Probably my 4th favorite event of this century.  I know you've had quite a few good months up there we didn't have.

[snow_wizard]

The best December's with at least half a foot for snow up here I've seen so far that I can actually find data for in Abbotsford are, 2008, 2007, 2003, 2002 (just under half a foot at ~5.5 inches), 2000, 1998 (almost a foot of snow), '96 totals are close to 08 at this particular weather station, 92 had just over a foot of snow, 1990 was also getting up there with 73cm, almost 2.5 feet of snow. I only went from 2016 to 1990 in this list with December totals reaching close to 6" of snow.

 

Amazing you managed to get something even in 2002.  That winter was horrendous here.  2.5 feet in 1990 in combo with the bitter cold...Wow!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Chilliwack seems to kill it in snow situations, which is odd given they are 33' elevation. They are in the frasier valley and pretty far east, but that doesn't typically enhance snowfall rates...at least in Bellingham it doesn't. Is there some sort of convergence that forms there or something?

 

Just 20 miles NE of Sumas...

 

Chilliwack is in a pretty optimal spot for cold air damming. They have mountains to both the north and south and are at the head of our source for Arctic air. It takes a long time to scour Arctic air in a place like that, so as long as there is ample moisture they can do a lot with an otherwise marginal situation elsewhere.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

As you can see there hasn't been a classic GOA low this month on the whole.  The lowest anoms are displaced eastward and by the time the month is over it will look better than this in a lot of ways.

 

Looks like a conclusive sign that the regime that caused the 'blob' has flipped. Definitely a good sign for the coming winter.

[Tundra]

Boy does that look familiar..+PNA/+NAO/Hudson Bay death vortex has been incredibly persistent since 2014.

 

The positive PNA is what really scares me.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Another beast offshore on Monday. But no one is talking about it at all. Obviously this one will stay farther offshore but it does look similar.

 

Mmmm.. this looks to have serious potential! Been tracking it for a few days now but figured the models were blowing smoke since no one else was talking about it..has the potential to catch everyone off guard

[Tundra]

Graph by Sam Lillo, for climatological reference. Lowest values obtained in October are the darkest blue, stronger PV years in lighter green.

 

Looks like 2003/04 and 2006/07 are the closest stratospheric matches within the satellite era. Also, years 1980/81, 1984/85, 1992/93, 2005/06, and 2013/14 has somewhat lower values, but only 1980/81, 1992/93, 2006/07, and 2013/14 were +QBO, and only 1980/81 and 2013/14 were -ENSO/+QBO, and only 2013/14 was a decent(ish) solar match.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62648E9E-6EED-4CE6-8174-8A39319E0864_zps0bxxzzck.jpg

 

Early January 2004 was incredible here at PDX. Snow/ice and below freezing temperatures for like a week.

[wx_statman]

Chilliwack is in a pretty optimal spot for cold air damming. They have mountains to both the north and south and are at the head of our source for Arctic air. It takes a long time to scour Arctic air in a place like that, so as long as there is ample moisture they can do a lot with an otherwise marginal situation elsewhere.

 

Yeah Chilliwack has some pretty impressive snowfall records on the books. Their single day record of 66.8cm (26.3") was on November 16, 1996. That's a remarkably early date to set an all-time snowfall record. They once received 5.1cm (2.0") in mid-October, on 10/16/1930. 

[snow_wizard]

The positive PNA is what really scares me.

 

We're fine.  November is getting close and we want positive PNA in November after the long reign of GOA ridging.  Perfect progression.  I would have liked to have gotten one more good negative PNA spike before the end of October, but it's not a huge deal.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah Chilliwack has some pretty impressive snowfall records on the books. Their single day record of 66.8cm (26.3") was on November 16, 1996. That's a remarkably early date to set an all-time snowfall record. They once received 5.1cm (2.0") in mid-October, on 10/16/1930. 

 

I wonder how they did in Jan 1913.  That month was pure madness for Clearbrook.

[snow_wizard]

Another beast offshore on Monday.    But no one is talking about it at all.    Obviously this one will stay farther offshore but it does look similar.

 

 

Quite remarkable to see two beasts like that so far south this early in the season.  Really unusual placement of strong anomalous low pressure on the mean for this month.

[Phil]

We're fine. November is getting close and we want positive PNA in November after the long reign of GOA ridging. Perfect progression. I would have liked to have gotten one more good negative PNA spike before the end of October, but it's not a huge deal.

That's not supported by the data I'm looking at. The -ENSOs with -PNAs in November generally featured stronger -PNAs in DJF, and visa versa.

 

Also, October is going to finish with a clear +PNA average, so if both October and November finish with a +PNA, then statistically speaking, the forward progression becomes more problematic.

[ShawniganLake]

Mmmm.. this looks to have serious potential! Been tracking it for a few days now but figured the models were blowing smoke since no one else was talking about it..has the potential to catch everyone off guard

It's going to spin offshore and weaken. Not a big wind threat. Might be a secondary low swing through Vancouver island on Wednesday for a breezy day.

[snow_wizard]

That's not supported by the data I'm looking at. The -ENSOs with -PNAs in November generally featured stronger -PNAs in DJF, and visa versa.

 

Also, October is going to finish with a clear +PNA average, so if both October and November finish with a +PNA, then statistically speaking, the forward progression becomes more problematic.

 

1942 and 1988 are a couple of examples that support my contention.  I think it's a good sign we are going to get hit in the heart of the winter for once.  I have little doubt there will be a period of very minus PNA during the winter.  The atmosphere hasn't "forgotten" about the extremely anomalous GOA ridging that dominated for so long.