October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

At least if January fails this year, Jim and Justin are on the hook for it this time, instead of me.

Jim's off limits.

 

Big Mac will beat you up.

[Jesse]

The little average snap around Halloween has been drowned in another surge of mild rain. Looking likely at this point that PDX will skate through the month with no more lows below 45.

[Phil]

Jim's off limits.

 

Big Mac will beat you up.

Haha.

 

Actually I think Tim was the first to start pounding the January drum. So, he roasts first.

[BLI snowman]

At least if January fails this year, Jim, Tim, and Justin are on the hook for it this time, instead of me.

 

I have yet to make any prognostications one way or another about January.

 

It will probably at least be of the nice, April-level quality that we've come to expect. 

[Phil]

I have yet to make any prognostications one way or another about January.

 

It will probably at least be of the nice, April-level quality that we've come to expect.

Weren't you were calling for a cold January based on the strong GOA vortex and jet extension? Or was that someone else?

[ShawniganLake]

Oh, yeah I remember that one. Thing is, I'd make the same forecast all over again if the same circumstances were to arise again.

 

Was a total fluke that it didn't work out. Multiple processes conspired to shove that anticyclonic breaker a good 750+ miles east of where it should have ended up. There are no analogs for January 2015.

Next time do yourself a favor and leave out the "snowier than 2008" part.

[BLI snowman]

I thought you were calling for a cold January based on the strong GOA vortex and jet extension?

 

No, not that I'm aware of.

 

I'm waiting until our next 8-9 winter to go all-in for anything here. 

[Jesse]

The increasingly apparent failure of our region to bounce back from the 2014-16 torch in a meaningful way is pretty disappointing.

[Phil]

Next time do yourself a favor and leave out the "snowier than 2008" part.

If I said that, I shouldn't have.

 

I'd still forecast an Arctic outbreak, though.

[Timmy Supercell]

I thought we cleared this up; January is March #1. Then February, and then March again.

 

And if the rain is humid, then call it 3rd October. 

[Deweydog]

Haha.

 

Actually I think Tim was the first to start pounding the January drum. So, he roasts first.

True.

[BLI snowman]

The increasingly apparent failure of our region to bounce back from the 2014-16 torch in a meaningful way is pretty disappointing.

 

How can we bounce back from the 2016 torch if it's still 2016?

[Deweydog]

The increasingly apparent failure of our region to bounce back from the 2014-16 torch in a meaningful way is pretty disappointing.

Clouds.

[snow_wizard]

Latest ECMWF weeklies.... No, you don't want to see them. Trust me.

 

I'm going to get my wish for a mild November.  We want to see this now.

[Jesse]

How can we bounce back from the 2016 torch if it's still 2016?

Should be seeing some improvement now in its final months as a lead up to a frigid 2017.

 

#iceagenow

[snow_wizard]

The increasingly apparent failure of our region to bounce back from the 2014-16 torch in a meaningful way is pretty disappointing.

 

The NW has been about the only place in the vicinity of North America to have persistent negative height anoms and negative 850mb temps over the past several months.  Surface details have been the problem.  No doubt in my mind the next few years are going to be to your liking.

[Jesse]

Clouds.

South to SW flow has been the culprit moreso over the last week or so. Even with clouds, NW flow patterns can be pretty chilly in late October.

[Phil]

I'm going to get my wish for a mild November. We want to see this now.

Wanna guess the last time +PNAs in both OCT/NOV were followed by an Arctic outbreak in JAN?

 

Not a pretty statistic at all. There are 26 cases, none of them delivered.

[snow_wizard]

Should be seeing some improvement now in its final months as a lead up to a frigid 2017.

 

#iceagenow

 

Don't freak out yet.  The longer the cold waits this season the better it will be.  Phil can correct me all he wants on that, but I stand by it.

[Jesse]

Don't freak out yet. The longer the cold waits this season the better it will be. Phil can correct me all he wants on that, but I stand by it.

No one's freaking out. Being a little tongue and cheek. I think even you can admit this October hasn't gone quite as you would have liked it to, though.

[snow_wizard]

Wanna guess the last time +PNAs in both OCT/NOV were followed by an Arctic outbreak in JAN?

 

Not a pretty statistic at all. There are 26 cases, none of them delivered.

 

I don't think the PNA has been that positive this month using the old formula.  The has been no western ridge and no Aleutian low.  The low has been pretty much on top of us and just off the coast.

[Phil]

Should be seeing some improvement now in its final months as a lead up to a frigid 2017.

 

#iceagenow

You should have your bunker finished and loaded with non perishables by now. If not, your loss.

[snow_wizard]

No one's freaking out. Being a little tongue and cheek. I think even you can admit this October hasn't gone quite as you would have liked it to, though.

 

The two paths are either cold or very wet.  We certainly nailed one of those.

[Deweydog]

South to SW flow has been the culprit moreso over the last week or so. Even with clouds, NW flow patterns can be pretty chilly in late October.

That too.

 

We've crossed the threshold. Rainy, cloudy weather no longer equals cool weather. Has nothing to do with this wrung out persistence narrative.

[snow_wizard]

Incidentally 1953 had positive PNA in both Oct and Nov and January did quite well.  I'll bet 1942 had that combo also.

[BLI snowman]

Wanna guess the last time +PNAs in both OCT/NOV were followed by an Arctic outbreak in JAN?

 

Not a pretty statistic at all. There are 26 cases, none of them delivered.

 

That seems pretty dubious. Looking at PNA values

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Years like 1953, 1962, 1968, 1979, and 1992 all delivered great Januaries to our region following a +PNA October/November.

 

And years like 2008 did just fine in the months to follow, as well.

[Phil]

I don't think the PNA has been that positive this month using the old formula. The has been no western ridge and no Aleutian low. The low has been pretty much on top of us and just off the coast.

Come on man, this is just baloney. The entire NPAC has been dominated by troughing and vorticity. That's a +PNA regardless of how you slice it.

 

Doesn't matter which formula you use. The comparison holds firm with both formulas.

[Phil]

That seems pretty dubious. Looking at PNA values

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Years like 1953, 1962, 1968, 1979, and 1992 all delivered great Januaries to our region following a +PNA October/November.

 

And years like 2008 did just fine in the months to follow, as well.

How many of those were Niñas? Answer, zero.

 

There's a reason for the Niño lean in that compilation.

[snow_wizard]

Come on man, this is just baloney. The entire NPAC has been dominated by troughing and vorticity. That's a +PNA regardless of how you slice it.

 

Doesn't matter which formula you use. The comparison holds firm with both formulas.

 

The reanalysis composite shows height anoms around zero for the month out around 150W 50N.  The trough has been displaced.  In fact there is a ridge out there right now.  I think you're a little off on this.

 

I also want to point out I'm not saying Jan will be the big month this winter.  I think it has the best shot by a tad, but it could be Dec or Feb.

[BLI snowman]

How many of those were Niñas?

 

Answer, zero.

 

1962 and 2008 were quite close ENSO-wise to where this year appears to be heading. Borderline negative neutral/weak Nina.

[snow_wizard]

How many of those were Niñas? Answer, zero.

 

There's a reason for the Niño lean in that compilation.

 

I'm just not worried.  You seem to be trying to say we're screwed and I don't buy it at all.

[Phil]

The reanalysis composite shows height anoms around zero for the month out around 150W 50N. The trough has been displaced. In fact there is a ridge out there right now. I think you're a little off on this.

 

I also want to point out I'm not saying Jan will be the big month this winter. I think it has the best shot by a tad, but it could be Dec or Feb.

Yeah, the CPC is just full of it. What do they know about calculating the PNA based on decades of research?

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, the CPC is just full of it. What do they know about calculating the PNA based on decades of research?

 

I'll run the composite at the end of the month and you can point out where the Aleutian low is.  It's more like a NW Coast low.

[Phil]

I'm just not worried. You seem to be trying to say we're screwed and I don't buy it at all.

I'm not saying you're screwed. I am saying, however, that the ongoing pattern progression isn't a good sign going forward, for both physical and statistical reasons.

 

Doesn't mean you won't score. Intraseasonal forcings are sufficient in most weak ENSO winters. It just means the winter as a whole might be less -PNA/troughy overall.

[Phil]

1962 and 2008 were quite close ENSO-wise to where this year appears to be heading. Borderline negative neutral/weak Nina.

Did 2008/09 deliver in January? That was my point, never said anything about December. Or February, for that matter.

[BLI snowman]

Did 2008/09 deliver in January? That was my point, never said anything about December. Or February, for that matter.

 

It was actually a reasonably decent January for us, and in lieu of what had happened a whopping 10 or so days prior to January it's a rather moot point.  

[Phil]

It was actually a reasonably decent January for us, and in lieu of what had happened a whopping 10 or so days prior to January it's a rather moot point.

Yeah, if you enjoy ridging.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7708EEA8-2EC8-446D-A97B-9B1AC32DD811_zpscvakrnpv.png

[Brennan]

December-february 08-09 were pretty good overall. I had snow and a few cold days in January which was more than I could hope for after that December.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, if you enjoy ridging.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7708EEA8-2EC8-446D-A97B-9B1AC32DD811_zpscvakrnpv.png

 

While January 2009 was dominated by the death ridge mid-month, the Portland area still managed four separate accumulating snowfall events that month - overnight on the 1st-2nd, on the 4th, overnight on the 24th-25th, and on the 27th. Total snowfall that month was 4.6" at the Portland NWS office, immediately after 19.0" fell in December. I have to agree with Justin, it was a reasonably decent January for us. 

[Phil]

While January 2009 was dominated by the death ridge mid-month, the Portland area still managed four separate accumulating snowfall events that month - overnight on the 1st-2nd, on the 4th, overnight on the 24th-25th, and on the 27th. Total snowfall that month was 4.6" at the Portland NWS office, immediately after 19.0" fell in December. I have to agree with Justin, it was a reasonably decent January for us.

Were there any Arctic blasts in January of 2009? I think the idea expressed by the aforementioned correlations holds true, in that when both October and November run +PNA averages, the following Januaries are very unlikely to be noteworthy, with a few "reasonably decent" ones being the best offerings in a sea of bad apples.

 

This relation holds true all the way back into the early/mid 20th century.