November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

Follow link and scroll down to the video of the CAT!       ROFLMAO

 

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

[Tom]

Well, well, well....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111812/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_11.png

[Tom]

JMA/GFS/EURO/GGEM trying to paint a wintry set up for parts of MN/WI pre-Thanksgiving period...850's for all the models look decent for some snow...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016111812/jma_T850_us_6.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016111812/ecmwf_T850_us_7.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016111812/gem_T850_us_21.png

[clintbeed1993]

Well got to see my first flakes of the season overnight!  It sure helps to lift the spirit and really got me in full winter mode!  Nice little appetizer, now I want the main course!  Did anyone else see snow?  I think we got about 1 inch in Grand Island.

[Niko]

My highs have a chance to not get outta the upper 20s on Sunday. Wow, this is some real cold air for this time of the year.

[Niko]

If December indeed decides to rock, these are the (recent) "deltas" to shoot for here in Marshall:  Dec '08 had 28", and Dec '00 had 40" (a huge Dec!)

 

 

LOL, well I did, and I didn't at the same time since (in '78) I was a kid growing up in SEMI not living here in Marshall.    But yeah, Marshall got at least 22" vs. KFNT back home in SEMI with 9". Extreme SEMI got really screwed by the warm tongue on that one with mixed precip really cutting totals. Nonetheless, I've seen folks post that even in northern burbs of Detroit it took them 3 days to get home. That's how hard that storm hit and it was so rare you can't hardly describe it now unless you have 1st hand experiences. I saw one woman's post from OH somewhere. She fell into a drift trying to find the door of her apt building (like 15 feet from) and later was scared that she felt maybe she wouldn't find the door and just be stuck there and die. True life-threatening winter storms like that one are (thankfully for the unsuspecting) rare and thus legendary.  

Yup, at that time I was a little kid growing up in NYC. I think I remember that year opening the front door and snow being up to my head. We had a blizzard that same year,but in February. Absolutely buried. Too bad I was little and cant remember too much.

[Niko]

If December indeed decides to rock, these are the (recent) "deltas" to shoot for here in Marshall:  Dec '08 had 28", and Dec '00 had 40" (a huge Dec!)

 

 

LOL, well I did, and I didn't at the same time since (in '78) I was a kid growing up in SEMI not living here in Marshall.    But yeah, Marshall got at least 22" vs. KFNT back home in SEMI with 9". Extreme SEMI got really screwed by the warm tongue on that one with mixed precip really cutting totals. Nonetheless, I've seen folks post that even in northern burbs of Detroit it took them 3 days to get home. That's how hard that storm hit and it was so rare you can't hardly describe it now unless you have 1st hand experiences. I saw one woman's post from OH somewhere. She fell into a drift trying to find the door of her apt building (like 15 feet from) and later was scared that she felt maybe she wouldn't find the door and just be stuck there and die. True life-threatening winter storms like that one are (thankfully for the unsuspecting) rare and thus legendary.  

Dec '13 was not good for you?

[hlcater]

First Flakes in Hiawatha(I moved ~15ish miles south, guess I forgot to mention that) 

[westMJim]

34° here with light to almost moderate snow falling. Here is some web cams from the UP (Munising)

http://www.exploremunising.com/web-cams/

At this time, not much snow in Munising more away from the lake maybe.

[WBadgersW]

Not much, but nice to see our first dusting.

[Tom]

00z Euro keeps the chill near the Lakes Day 7-10 with mainly below normal temps.  After another wintry system around Thanksgiving, the snow that does fall up north may stick around for a bit.

 

MJO is forecast to take a turn back to the cold phase 1 on the GFS, Euro may also be trying to do the same thing. GFS has been kicking butt with the MJO this season.  The model updates within the next 2 hours so I'm curious to see if this trend continues.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

That is a gorgeous 500mb pattern...SW Flow all day...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111906/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111906/gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

[Tom]

From the looks on radar earlier this morning, Chicago area had it's first flakes.

 

@WestJim, those bands coming off the lake look intense.  There is a pretty intense band just W of GRR...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/GRR/N0Q/GRR.N0Q.20161119.1503.gif

[Stormgeek]

Looks like there will be another storm to track early next week for my area. How much it snows seems it will be heavily dictated on how the temperature profiles work out. Sitting really close on either side of the freezing line on models.

[james1976]

Looks like there will be another storm to track early next week for my area. How much it snows seems it will be heavily dictated on how the temperature profiles work out. Sitting really close on either side of the freezing line on models.

Yeah models have been consistently showing this. GFS trying to get a clipper type system going around Black Friday as well.

[james1976]

12z GFS with a monster storm for midwest to open December.
​Prolly the storm Flowers keeps talking about.

[Tom]

The central Plains are looking money for significant snows Week 2.  NE is sitting in a good spot IMO.  There will be a big time storm that forms in the Plains and cuts up towards the Lakes.  I think this may be our next big storm to track.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111912/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_25.png

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111912/gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

 

Cold starts to bleed east from the Rockies...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111912/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_12.png

[james1976]

I know its fantasy land but would anyone have snowfall map from that early Dec storm?? Thanks

[james1976]

I hope that thing can take a more W-E track and crush us all.

[westMJim]

Getting heavy snow here for the last 10/15 min or so grass, roofs, car tops are now covered. Temperature is now at 31°

[westMJim]

Getting a very intense snow shower here. Everything is now covered except the road and driveway. On my snow board now have ¾ inch could reach a inch shortly if this keeps up.

[hlcater]

I know its fantasy land but would anyone have snowfall map from that early Dec storm?? Thanks

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016111912/384/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

hahahahaha. I wish.

[Tom]

12z EPS seeing a large system developing over the Pan Handle region Day 10.  It's going to be a week long of model watching!  From this map, looks like the rain/snow line would be roughly along I-80.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111912/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111912/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png

[OKwx2k4]

The GFS and Euro Ensembles are trying to seed enough cold down into that southern system around the 1st to bring snows to Oklahoma. It would be about 41-43 days since the dreary, cold storm of October down here. I think it has merit. I'd like to see a good measurable snow to open December here and then I think a huge storm should follow it around the 4th-6th. Nearly the entirety of the northern half of the country is going to be covered in snow soon. What an amazing transition we are about to see.

[OKwx2k4]

Loving it!

 

[Money]

Hello

 

 

[Tom]

Hello

 

There he is...good to see you back bud...

[Niko]

Andddd.....I saw my first flakes today. With the wind howling, it was a windriven snow. Of course no accumulations, although, by night, it can whiten up the grass surfaces a bit. Its on and off squalls. Lovin it!

[Niko]

12z GFS with a monster storm for midwest to open December.

​Prolly the storm Flowers keeps talking about.

Can you post the map?

[Niko]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016111912/384/sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

hahahahaha. I wish.

[Money]

There he is...good to see you back bud...

 

First flakes here yesterday. power got knocked out from the wind for a few hours as well. Good to see you guys still going strong on here.

 

Also congrats on the Cubbies. Awesome season for them, and they have a great future ahead with Theo. 

[Niko]

Have to say that 95% of the trees in my area are now bare. Very few still have color leaves and with the winds howling here over the next couple of days, all trees will be naked very soon.

[Thunder98]

Cool, Cloudy and Wet pattern coming in the coming weeks for Wisconsin and Minnesota region?

 

[james1976]

Only made it to 36 today!! And gusty winds. What a transition!

[bud2380]

Nearly a year ago we had a nice snowstorm hit the midwest.  I got about 8" here with some places in Iowa getting nearly 13".  I love the video of them clearing the snow from Kinnick Stadium, that was really cool to watch.

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/dvn/Past_Events/2015/1121/regional%20snowfall%20map%20MRCC.PNG

[jaster220]

 

KRMY hit 72º about 1:30 yesterday, and at 2 pm this afternoon had 32º and a heavy snow squall in progress! That's impressive for this river bottom region, especially with how mega-mild these past months have been. I broomed off my car, my back door's from a deck so shoveled twice there, and the rows of leaf piles along the streets now look like temporary snow banks lol.  And the pounding across N Michigan continues this evening. This has really been one of the better backside events I can recall from a storm that gave a bliz to SD. If we carry this trend into real winter, those calling for GL's bulls-eye will be spot on. I'm calling it at least a solid inch here, maybe a bit more. It came and melted, came and melted, so I'll wait and compare official reports to make a final call. Still have autumn stuff outside, so I don't need full-on winter til 2nd week of Dec.

 

Needless to say, hello winter! :)

[james1976]

Nearly a year ago we had a nice snowstorm hit the midwest. I got about 8" here with some places in Iowa getting nearly 13". I love the video of them clearing the snow from Kinnick Stadium, that was really cool to watch.

 

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/dvn/Past_Events/2015/1121/regional%20snowfall%20map%20MRCC.PNG

Yup that was amazing! I remember it was the first flakes of the season. And there was no wind so it was easy to measure. I ended with about 12". I was so excited. It just kept snowing. I remember wondering around the neighborhood that evening just taking it all in. One of my fav storms ever. Forgot it was a year ago this weekend! I believe it was Nov 20 and a Friday.

[jaster220]

Dec '13 was not good for you?

 

It was not bad, that's for sure. About 17". 2000 and 2008 were the biggies around here (in recent times)

[james1976]

[GDR]