Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Looking more closely at the ECMWF Ensembles. 850mb temps are chilly, a lot of cold members, but a lot of spaghetti too. Would like to see less 'warm' members on future runs. Surface temps for the Gorge and Columbia Basin indicate prolonged backdoor cold temps well below freezing for at least 6-7 days and a large cluster of members suggest bitter cold is not out of question. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 NIGHT SHIFT 6z GFS Day 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Ridge losing amplification past 4 runs. That's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 First trough looking chilly. Day 5 850s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 5.5 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 6 (Past 4 runs) Meh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Losing block support. Day 7+ may be pure junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 8.5 850s 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 7.5+ block support although not ideal did establish itself again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 9'er 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 GFS continuing to show very poor run to run consistency after Day 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 9'er 850s 498 line drops down into Montana on this run. Would be some very chilly outflow winds with that for you guys! 3 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, Kayla said: 498 drops down into Montana on this run. Would be some very chilly outflow winds with that for you guys! It would setup a major cold pool and frigid low level blast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 10+ with a big backdoor blast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Conclusion: The GFS is likely showing its cold bias. I'll wait to see how the 12z EURO/EPS look today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Unfortunate. 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 hours ago, smerfylicious said: My wife's family lives in Stockholm and they've been spamming early snow pictures at me. Gorgeous time of year. What brought you to the land of fermented fish? It is beautiful but I'm not sure I could handle the lack of daylight and sunlight all winter. I'm here for work/training. 4 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Unfortunate. Unfortunate that it's actually a really good run? Or unfortunate that you don't believe it?? 7 Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Okay, I am off. Root for good 12z runs later this morning! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 My local forecast shows a decent shot of snow from late 27th on. Temps are marginal for the highs, but it looks pretty solid. Even if Puget Sound doesn't get any, I may have some good pics to share next week if the cards fall nicely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 54 minutes ago, Kayla said: It is beautiful but I'm not sure I could handle the lack of daylight and sunlight all winter. I'm here for work/training. See this is why I only go in the Spring and Summer! haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Kayla said: Unfortunate that it's actually a really good run? Or unfortunate that you don't believe it?? I thought it would be a bit more favorable but we have a long way to go. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Tacoma: we don’t smell as bad as we used to. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 EPS is bullish as hell on this pattern. It’s early, but so far, the canonical Niña/+QBO composite is holding up well. With some 2022-specific adjustments, of course. 5 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phil said: EPS is bullish as hell on this pattern. It’s early, but so far, the canonical Niña/+QBO composite is holding up well. With some 2022-specific adjustments, of course. Specifics less important than the larger scale picture at this range, IMO. Verbatim it looks like a +NPO/-PNA —> -EPO/-NAM evolution which historically favors a zonal—>cold transition in the W/NW. 5 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 7 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said: What about the white stuff? I’ve got a little snow in my display A few years ago I did use that fake spray snow decorating rocks and trees outside the windows 44* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6z GEFS no changes. Surface temps Day 6+ the low level cold really takes hold with the Gorge and Columbia Basin plunging well below freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 00z EPS Surface temps. Also prolonged low level cold! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 That first trough has trended colder and colder which is great to see. The EPS also looks farther east with that second trough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 The GFS Super Ensemble analog composite Day 6-10, 8-14 looks outstanding. 1972, 2008! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 hours ago, smerfylicious said: Great news to hear. I wish you worked with me, that $900 bill would be $15 with no followup bills... thank you! The $900 is just what has hit the insurance, they have to do their thing, and it will surely be knocked down once it has been processed. And for the follow up bill, I don't know if there will be a separate charge for the person who has to read/interpret the results. Kinda like when you have surgery, you get a bill from the doctor doing the cutting, the hospital, and the anesthesiologist. I'm guessing the $900 bill will end up being about $90-100 (cut in half for the "negotiated rate" and then we would owe 20% of that.) Hopefully there is no separate charge, but then again, I'm kinda surprised that molecular analysis of a biopsy sample *only* costs $900. I was thinking it would be a couple of grand (before insurance adjustment). 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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