SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 GFS shows snow for Vancouver in only 100 hours….. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Unfortunately the block looks slightly weaker on this run after Day 6 but the first trough is colder which is great to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Wow even the Canadian model looks awesome. 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: GFS shows snow for Vancouver in only 100 hours….. Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off. 1 1 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 In today’s episode of plane vs wind. Jeebus, that was close to a wing strike. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 GFS Op showing poor run to run consistency after Day 5, but that isn't new. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off. Time for another upgrade... A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Cancelled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Cancelled It's on its way! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 00z GEM through Day 7 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Back to the 00z GFS. Day 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Time for another upgrade... It’s infuriating how much worse they’ve gotten with snow. It used to be you knew unless they whiffed on a low placement that if a model showed significant sticking snow to sea level it would at least be cold enough for snow in the air and probably cold enough for snow to stick on the hill. Now they routinely spit out 4-8” of phantom snow that couldn’t physically happen. 1 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Weird. It also says it’ll be 46 there at the same time. Gonna be tough to pull that combo off. That’s probably because it’s not exactly snowing in Vancouver/Abbotsford at that time. Closer view. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 It's not even December and we're doing this! C'MON!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEM through Day 7 Rob, how many times has the GEM been right over the other main models, i. e. the gfs and euro, during these kind of episodes tho? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Chewbacca Defense Posted November 23, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Got up to 52 here today with a respectable .73" of rain. Update on my wife: We had the doctor send off her biopsy for molecular/DNA analysis (so far I've seen a $900 charge hit our insurance for that one, not sure if more is to follow). We went in for the pre-op appointment today, and the results from the analysis also showed up today. Her cancer risk went from 40-ish% down to 3%!! After a lot of discussion with the doctor, we decided to take a wait and monitor approach. The type of cancer she is at risk of having is a slow mover, so routine ultrasounds should pick up any issues early enough, and there is a 25% chance the surgery could throw her thyroid function out of whack, plus the risks that go along with ANY surgery. It's not 0% we really want to hear, but 3% is a way better than 40%....breathing a huge sigh of relief here tonight! 15 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Never mind my previous comment, the Aleutian block is back by day 9 with another cold trough over us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 9'er 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: That’s probably because it’s not exactly snowing in Vancouver/Abbotsford at that time. Closer view. The Weatherbell map he posted showed it snowing in Vancouver at that same frame. For some reason their maps are much more comically generous with snowfall than other website’s. 2 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: That’s probably because it’s not exactly snowing in Vancouver/Abbotsford at that time. Closer view. really making me re-think my weatherbell sub. The high res maps seem to be terribly done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 48 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Well lol I'm glad you approve. I appreciate it. One might think that I must drink a lot, or smoke some crazy stuff, but nope. I'm a natural, WHICH might actually be worse. Yeah. 00z ECMWF in 2 hours 3 minutes Love your passion bro keep it up! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1044mb Arctic High north of the border with arctic air surging south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Uncancel! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, selkirks said: *Finally* getting some light, very wet snow in south Spokane, after a full day of teasing. yeah, flopped here, mostly rain, not much accumulation. North and West of town got it good 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: really making me re-think my weatherbell sub. The high res maps seem to be terribly done. Does pivotal have any long range models like weeklies? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Quite the N-S gradient 1 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Past 4 runs 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: The Weatherbell map he posted showed it snowing in Vancouver at that same frame. For some reason their maps are much more comically generous with snowfall than other website’s. I see it and doesn’t make a lick of sense considering the temps output. Even by 3-h QPF. Pivotal actually have done a great job upgrading their res output for paid subs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Rob, how many times has the GEM been right over the other main models, i. e. the gfs and euro, during these kind of episodes tho? Good question. I know it did pretty good back in December 2008, but otherwise seems the GFS and EURO/EPS get the most focus for model accuracy at Day 5. I do think the GEM scores higher than the GFS Day 5-7 though. 6z GFS in 4 hours 58 minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: It's not even December and we're doing this! C'MON!!!! It's still fall for another month. Winter hasn't even started yet. 1 1 1 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: I love it when temperatures drop 21 degrees over my house from one run to the next! 1 1 2 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Good question. I know it did pretty good back in December 2008, but otherwise seems the GFS and EURO/EPS get the most focus for model accuracy at Day 5. I do think the GEM scores higher than the GFS Day 5-7 though. 6z GFS in 4 hours 58 minutes Ryan Maue used to post time series charts of "model skill" charts on twitter, so you can see how well the models are doing over time. Model skill is some index of how well predictions match observations. Would be cool if someone could track model skill for this region in particular. 2 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Much better CAA on this run for the first shot. Really nice. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 This is looking serious now. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 23, 2022 Report Share Posted November 23, 2022 Strong east wind and cold highs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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