November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

We all know the drill guys.  This is actually pretty good right now.

[Randyc321]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about an idiot!

Oh, you're no fun.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Nov1985]

The Wed night low is still there and still worthy of keeping an eye on. There's a new low at the tail end of the 00Z ECMWF run. It's a big low, but west at this point (Below). Everything will look totally different in 2 or 3 days, but the basic setup remains steady between runs.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Snowfall totals, including the southwestern US.

I’m in the MUAVE!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Oh, you're no fun.

I was laughing my azz off when I typed that.  The guy is really dumb though.

[smerfylicious]

14 hours ago, Kayla said:

There are a lot more deciduous trees in Maine or NH though. Sweden is mostly Tiaga forest and the northern parts definitely have a very tundra like feel with a lot of rocky soil and short shrubs.

My wife's family lives in Stockholm and they've been spamming early snow pictures at me. Gorgeous time of year. What brought you to the land of fermented fish?

[snow_wizard]

My rule is if I've never seen something the models are showing actually happen I disregard it.  That low that comes down and spoils the party just happens too fast IMO.  Usually in a situation like that the spacing of lows sliding down the coast is much less frequent.

[Snownerd3000]

Is this the PV? 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Is this the PV? 

GEM kinda shows something similar I think. Like the whole thing shifts down into Canada 

[RentonHill]

Making myself a nice second dinner to stay up for the EPS

[van city]

There's that too.

[Nov1985]

60+ MPH east winds in the foothills with that big low approaching at the end of the ECMWF run. This is crazy pants range, hoping it sticks in future runs.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Gem did look solid 

[Kolk1604]

EPS almost Day 9 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like chilly onshore flow to me not seeing arctic air spilling into the Columbia Basin yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block is getting too far west. Onto 12z....

6z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes
12z ECMWF in 10 hours 17 minutes

[RentonHill]

[SouthHillFrosty]

[RentonHill]

Yay Control  

[Gradient Keeper]

Still much colder than last nights run for what its worth. $5 Wendy's Biggie Bag?

[Nov1985]

Chances of >1" snow increasing for mid-week in most spots. Past four EPS runs.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Still much colder than last nights run for what its worth. $5 Wendy's Biggie Bag?

Remember when Double Stacks were a buck??? Best college meal ever. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Still much colder than last nights run for what its worth. $5 Wendy's Biggie Bag?

Anybody try the peppermint frosty yet?

[Gradient Keeper]

What have we learned tonight? Probably nothing, but the GFS/GEFS are horrid and have a severe cold bias. Maybe we should only model ride the ECMWF/EPS.

[Kolk1604]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

What have we learned tonight? Probably nothing, but the GFS/GEFS are horrid and have a severe cold bias. Maybe we should only model ride the ECMWF/EPS.

Medium range will keep improving and don't look past day 10 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Dr. No has spoken.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Dr. No has spoken.

I need a 6z pick-me-up like its nobodys business. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hoping 12z ECMWF/EPS handles the ridge better Day 6+. If not, this is going to be just the initial chilly trough, but nothing arctic. A lot is probably going to change the next 48hrs of model runs, so we'll just have to see.

[Skagit Weather]

5 hours ago, MossMan said:

December 2008 was so amazing! Many of the snowfalls up here were not forecasted as being much more than snow showers but we kept getting these healthy pulses through that would require Winter Storm Warnings over and over again! Here are parts of those warnings, sorry kind of long. 

This honestly brought back so many good memories even if these files are kind of weak on actual details. I went back and  looked at the snowfall measurements from that December 2008 period.

We picked up 3-4" of snow overnight between the 13th and the 14th as temperatures plummeted. From the 14th until the 24th I don't think I got above freezing. The real show started early on Wednesday morning December 17th. I went to bed with a little snow in the forecast and woke up to an additional 5" on the ground and heavy snow continuing throughout the day. Regardless to say, school was cancelled. By the end of the day there was almost a foot on the ground and school was cancelled again on the 18th as another couple inches fell.

We ended up getting an extra three days of winter vacation as it cleared out on Friday and it got quite cold. By Saturday morning (enhanced by the 12" of snow) the temperature dropped to 2F. I remember watching my weather station drop degree after degree and willing it to get below 0F! Clouds moved in that night bringing with them light snow which turned into a full fledged storm by Sunday the 21st with another 6" falling on Sunday and 4" on Monday. By that time my snow depth was above 20". A little additional snow fell on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before it slowly started to moderate.

[smerfylicious]

4 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Got up to 52 here today with a respectable .73" of rain.

 

Update on my wife:  We had the doctor send off her biopsy for molecular/DNA analysis (so far I've seen a $900 charge hit our insurance for that one, not sure if more is to follow).  We went in for the pre-op appointment today, and the results from the analysis also showed up today.  Her cancer risk went from 40-ish% down to 3%!!

After a lot of discussion with the doctor, we decided to take a wait and monitor approach.  The type of cancer she is at risk of having is a slow mover, so routine ultrasounds should pick up any issues early enough, and there is a 25% chance the surgery could throw her thyroid function out of whack, plus the risks that go along with ANY surgery.

It's not 0% we really want to hear, but 3% is a way better than 40%....breathing a huge sigh of relief here tonight!

 

Great news to hear. I wish you worked with me, that $900 bill would be $15 with no followup bills...

[RentonHill]

I’ll take it

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I’ll take it

How does it compare to yesterday? 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How does it compare to yesterday? 

About 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z was. 

[Snownerd3000]

14 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

This honestly brought back so many good memories even if these files are kind of weak on actual details. I went back and  looked at the snowfall measurements from that December 2008 period.

We picked up 3-4" of snow overnight between the 13th and the 14th as temperatures plummeted. From the 14th until the 24th I don't think I got above freezing. The real show started early on Wednesday morning December 17th. I went to bed with a little snow in the forecast and woke up to an additional 5" on the ground and heavy snow continuing throughout the day. Regardless to say, school was cancelled. By the end of the day there was almost a foot on the ground and school was cancelled again on the 18th as another couple inches fell.

We ended up getting an extra three days of winter vacation as it cleared out on Friday and it got quite cold. By Saturday morning (enhanced by the 12" of snow) the temperature dropped to 2F. I remember watching my weather station drop degree after degree and willing it to get below 0F! Clouds moved in that night bringing with them light snow which turned into a full fledged storm by Sunday the 21st with another 6" falling on Sunday and 4" on Monday. By that time my snow depth was above 20". A little additional snow fell on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before it slowly started to moderate.

I remember the day it started, it hit mid to late afternoon. I remember driving home from work on the side roads bc the freeways were a mess. I remember I just got my first Subaru which couldn't have been better timing. I had to go the hill by Chateau Ste Michelle which for those uninitiated, is very steep and winding. I remember having to slalom cars spun out that were trying to get uo the hill. Engine compression is a helleva break when you don't want to use breaks. 

I remember that cold morning. My parents place in Woodinville got down to 7, lowest temp I've ever seen in Woodinville. 

Then Christmas eve i recall a foot of snow falling over night and into Christmas day. Snow was so heavy we woke up to no power. Lucky we had a generator. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

UW GFS seems to have forgotten about mountians.

[Slushy Inch]

Cold bias much?

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

UW GFS seems to have forgotten about mountians.

I wish lol

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

UW GFS seems to have forgotten about mountians.

I didn’t even know it went out past 180hrs.