November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

I am NOT on board 

Maybe in a week or so 

In a week it will already be here assuming it happens.

[Meatyorologist]

Classic warning shot/real deal combo. Initial trough preps BC with Airctic air, second strike does the business end of things and utilizes a now much deeper airmass.

[RentonHill]

We're heading to Tahoe

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 850s (Past 4 runs) Cold air moving south quicker

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 850s (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Slider and blast incoming!

[snow_wizard]

I am really liking the looks of the reload on this run.  Can't wait to see how it actually unfolds on the next few frames.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5.5 850s (Past 4 runs) Cold air moving south quicker

Always a good sign with these things.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Classic warning shot/real deal combo. Initial trough preps BC with Airctic air, second strike does the business end of things and utilizes a now much deeper airmass.

Should we worry about 850s on the westside totally resetting after the first shot? 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Talk about an idiot!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Talk about an idiot!

jesus christ jim

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Should we worry about 850s on the westside totally resetting after the first shot? 

The real cold will blast in behind the low sliding down the coast.

[RentonHill]

OK. Here's the good stuff. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

jesus christ jim

Are you sayin I'm wrong?

Don't get me wrong it's hilarious.

[RentonHill]

Deleted and replaced with a big ol WEINER that i totally deserve 

[Kolk1604]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Is that the hammer dropping? 

[snow_wizard]

OMG this one looks good.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Long way out yes i know but still like bummer was really hoping for improvements across the board

That is what we've seen tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a classic unfolding.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[SnowHawks]

Did someone order a BC Slider?

[Gradient Keeper]

Too far west. Nice improvements Day 4-7 in the believable time frame. I am awaiting to see how the EPS looks later.

[Snownerd3000]

Lots of really cold air to work with 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Too far west. Nice improvements Day 4-7 in the believable time frame. I am awaiting to see how the EPS looks later.

Yea……surface levels aren’t impressive 

[snow_wizard]

Kind of bummer that next low comes down so fast it kind of messes things up.  Seems suspect to me but who knows.  Still an impressive pattern with lowland snow though.

[Requiem]

It is, at the least, very nice to see the cold air available to work with. This pattern seems pretty long-lived, so I think we'll have at least a few opportunities to tap into some of that.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Too far west. Nice improvements Day 4-7 in the believable time frame. I am awaiting to see how the EPS looks later.

That one low comes down perfectly.  All we need is for that next one to not follow so quickly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Hawksfan2008]

I wouldn’t focus too much on the details at this point. We know everything needs to line up perfectly. Starts with cold air available and a pattern with potential. We have both! Enough to be excited about  

[snow_wizard]

I'll be really surprised if what this run shows verifies.  I've never seen a low track down the BC coast on that trajectory not produce magic for us.

[snow_wizard]

That frame right there is what we want except for the next low coming down.

[Gradient Keeper]

The block reorganizes too far west on the Op. I hope that isn't how things play out Day 6+

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That frame right there is what we want except for the next low coming down.

Next low is coming in to high again (yes, Ik it will change next run)

[snow_wizard]

And this is just textbook.  No sign of any trouble there.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The block reorganizes too far west on the Op. I hope that isn't how things play out Day 6+

Ensembles are the way to go on that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.