Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Wednesday afternoon decides it prefers southwesterly flow... It was always the warmer day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bueryan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Someone please post pepto snow maps and tell me we're all too pessimistic. What does the WRF say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Euro bombs it out to 977mb at the tip of Vancouver Island. GFS has it at 1015mb at the same time frame. I’d bet the Euro is over doing it. We’ve definitely seen it come in too strong with low pressure development in these circumstances in the past. A blend with the big 3 models seems like the best bet, unsurprisingly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Bueryan said: Someone please post pepto snow maps and tell me we're all too pessimistic. What does the WRF say Lots of phantom snow on the Euro still! It seems to have decided Puget Sound has an elevation around 1,500 feet though . . . 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: I’d be happy with something below 14F. Hasn’t dropped below -10C since I moved to this house in 2014. How cold did you get last December? That airmass was near top tier in our region. I recorded a 22.8F / 14.9F day on Dec 27th, and I believe it was colder up island. Your area is consistently colder than here in the night most of the time, but I guess you get less direct exposure to outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, bainbridgekid said: Lots of phantom snow on the Euro still! It seems to have decided Puget Sound has an elevation around 1,500 feet though . . . 2020 analog is back with a focus of Seattle north snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 A few things. I'm sleepy. Also, We've seen this before even with King EURO the same exact thing where one trend the arctic trough hugs the BC coast, the next it digs it offshore, and then the final trend brings it back more favorably plowing through southern BC. Will we? maybe. It all depends on how the energy rounding the block and moving through Yukon is handled. It would not take much for this to turn back to the cold side of things. 00z ECMWF in 11 hours 6 minutes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Lots of phantom snow on the Euro still! It seems to have decided Puget Sound has an elevation around 1,500 feet though . . . Euro finally came to its senses and moved the Oregon coast bullseye from Cannon Beach to Arch Cape. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I'm a bit concerned by the ECMWF, but I'm skeptical it will verify. I think a compromise between it and the GFS is still the most likely outcome. At least everything is showing Seattle getting decent snowfall and at least decently cold. I know the ECMWF has a notorious bias for digging things too far SW at the base of a block. Hopefully that's all that's going on. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I’d bet the Euro is over doing it. We’ve definitely seen it come in too strong with low pressure development in these circumstances in the past. I blend with the big 3 models seems like the best bet, unsurprisingly. And fwiw people were highlighting how wrong/off the euro has been in the 3-5 day recently at the 500mb level around the CONUS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 On the plus side it appears the block holds up better on this on this run after trough number 2. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 That makes me feel a whole lot better. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said: How cold did you get last December? That airmass was near top tier in our region. I recorded a 22.8F / 14.9F day on Dec 27th, and I believe it was colder up island. Your area is consistently colder than here in the night most of the time, but I guess you get less direct exposure to outflow. Bottomed out at 16F here. We are usually on the periphery of the outflow here. The wind tends to come and go but I think Saltspring island blocks a lot of it. We get our coldest temps when things decouple and it never really cleared out last December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The second act of this play never really materializes with this run. A familiar plot. But in recent years a modified 2nd act was added back in with later model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 8 seattle adds more snow!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Still a lot to work with on this run. I'm certainly glad the ECMWF and GFS are so far apart on this. Room for compromise. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said: Day 8 seattle adds more snow!! 35° +/- with 850Ts -7C --> -5C. It could be entertaining. I picked a bad week to quit model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: The second act of this play never really materializes with this run. A familiar plot. But in recent years a modified 2nd act was added back in with later model runs. Still a lot of potential with this. In fact it could still end up being really big. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The block stays way more impressive on this run at the end. Going to be a wild ride coming up...at least emotionally and very possibly physically. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Bottomed out at 16F here. We are usually on the periphery of the outflow here. The wind tends to come and go but I think Saltspring island blocks a lot of it. We get our coldest temps when things decouple and it never really cleared out last December The atmosphere was pretty well mixed in that event, it was still quite windy when we recorded the 14.9F here. I don't recall any clear nights either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post umadbro Posted November 25, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 This forum is legitimately one of the funniest things on the internet. I truly enjoy this place. 8 1 1 2 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: This would be murder for people who haven't been doing this for 25 years like some of us have. It's still close even for me. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Still a lot of potential with this. In fact it could still end up being really big. Agree with that. Also, the ensembles will tell a more full story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Being real...all we have to do is have the GFS and ECMWF meet in the middle and we are golden. Very possible outcome. 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Being real...all we have to do is have the GFS and ECMWF meet in the middle and we are golden. Very possible outcome. Agree with this... compromise is usually the best bet. 6 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: Being real...all we have to do is have the GFS and ECMWF meet in the middle and we are golden. Very possible outcome. I agree with that. I'm not buying the strength of the low on the Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Pacific is shut down at the end of the run. #itsgoingtobecoldregardless 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Where's that Devastating Trendz post from last year? or was it 2 years ago? @Deweydog started it, and then I made the custom T-Shirt... Lol. This would be an ideal time for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 La Nina doin' its thing. 6 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: I agree with that. I'm not buying the strength of the low on the Euro I've seen the ECMWF way too aggressive on stuffing energy southwestward under a block many times. That explains the UKMET also since they are both European models. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: This would be murder for people who haven't been doing this for 25 years like some f us have. I started in 1985. I only figured out how to detach about 10 years ago. Watching the models stumble and finally solve complex systems is much more entertaining than anything on Netflix. The last few years have been great so this season already exceeding expectations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, joelgombiner said: La Nina doin' its thing. The MEI is just ridiculous. Extremely tanked MEI seems to correspond well with very blocky winters for us. I think 2010 and 1988 are the two best examples of that in recent times. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Up to 0.56" on the day here in Everett. Also down to 42 degrees after a high of 57 yesterday. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Still a lot to work with on this run. I'm certainly glad the ECMWF and GFS are so far apart on this. Room for compromise. 10 minutes ago, umadbro said: This forum is legitimately one of the funniest things on the internet. I truly enjoy this place. Two sentiments I wholeheartedly agree with. 3 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Normally we would call this pretty good stuff! 2 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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