November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Nov1985]

Wednesday afternoon decides it prefers southwesterly flow... It was always the warmer day.

[Bueryan]

Someone please post pepto snow maps and tell me we're all too pessimistic. What does the WRF say

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Euro bombs it out to 977mb at the tip of Vancouver Island.

GFS has it at 1015mb at the same time frame.  

I’d bet the Euro is over doing it.  We’ve definitely seen it come in too strong with low pressure development in these circumstances in the past.  A blend with the big 3 models seems like the best bet, unsurprisingly. 

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Bueryan said:

Someone please post pepto snow maps and tell me we're all too pessimistic. What does the WRF say

Lots of phantom snow on the Euro still! It seems to have decided Puget Sound has an elevation around 1,500 feet though . . .

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d be happy with something below 14F. Hasn’t dropped below -10C since I moved to this house in 2014. 

How cold did you get last December? That airmass was near top tier in our region. I recorded a 22.8F / 14.9F day on Dec 27th, and I believe it was colder up island. Your area is consistently colder than here in the night most of the time, but I guess you get less direct exposure to outflow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Lots of phantom snow on the Euro still! It seems to have decided Puget Sound has an elevation around 1,500 feet though . . .

 

2020 analog is back with a focus of Seattle north snow!

[Gradient Keeper]

A few things. I'm sleepy. Also, We've seen this before even with King EURO the same exact thing where one trend the arctic trough hugs the BC coast, the next it digs it offshore, and then the final trend brings it back more favorably plowing through southern BC. Will we? maybe. It all depends on how the energy rounding the block and moving through Yukon is handled. It would not take much for this to turn back to the cold side of things.

00z ECMWF in 11 hours 6 minutes

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Lots of phantom snow on the Euro still! It seems to have decided Puget Sound has an elevation around 1,500 feet though . . .

 

Euro finally came to its senses and moved the Oregon coast bullseye from Cannon Beach to Arch Cape.

[snow_wizard]

I'm a bit concerned by the ECMWF, but I'm skeptical it will verify.  I think a compromise between it and the GFS is still the most likely outcome.  At least everything is showing Seattle getting decent snowfall and at least decently cold.

I know the ECMWF has a notorious bias for digging things too far SW at the base of a block.  Hopefully that's all that's going on.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet the Euro is over doing it.  We’ve definitely seen it come in too strong with low pressure development in these circumstances in the past.  I blend with the big 3 models seems like the best bet, unsurprisingly. 

And fwiw people were highlighting how wrong/off the euro has been in the 3-5 day recently at the 500mb level around the CONUS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[snow_wizard]

On the plus side it appears the block holds up better on this on this run after trough number 2.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

That makes me feel a whole lot better.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

How cold did you get last December? That airmass was near top tier in our region. I recorded a 22.8F / 14.9F day on Dec 27th, and I believe it was colder up island. Your area is consistently colder than here in the night most of the time, but I guess you get less direct exposure to outflow.

Bottomed out at 16F here.  We are usually on the periphery of the outflow here. The wind tends to come and go but I think Saltspring island blocks a lot of it. We get our coldest temps when things decouple and it never really cleared out last December 

[Nov1985]

The second act of this play never really materializes with this run. A familiar plot. But in recent years a modified 2nd act was added back in with later model runs. 

 

[Weiner Warrior]

Day 8 seattle adds more snow!!

[snow_wizard]

Still a lot to work with on this run.  I'm certainly glad the ECMWF and GFS are so far apart on this.  Room for compromise.

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Day 8 seattle adds more snow!!

35° +/- with 850Ts -7C --> -5C. It could be entertaining. I picked a bad week to quit model watching. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

The second act of this play never really materializes with this run. A familiar plot. But in recent years a modified 2nd act was added back in with later model runs. 

 

Still a lot of potential with this.  In fact it could still end up being really big.

[Gradient Keeper]

[snow_wizard]

The block stays way more impressive on this run at the end.  Going to be a wild ride coming up...at least emotionally and very possibly physically.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Bottomed out at 16F here.  We are usually on the periphery of the outflow here. The wind tends to come and go but I think Saltspring island blocks a lot of it. We get our coldest temps when things decouple and it never really cleared out last December 

The atmosphere was pretty well mixed in that event, it was still quite windy when we recorded the 14.9F here. I don't recall any clear nights either.

[umadbro]

This forum is legitimately one of the funniest things on the internet. I truly enjoy this place.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This would be murder for people who haven't been doing this for 25 years like some of us have.  It's still close even for me.

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Still a lot of potential with this.  In fact it could still end up being really big.

Agree with that. Also, the ensembles will tell a more full story. 

[snow_wizard]

Being real...all we have to do is have the GFS and ECMWF meet in the middle and we are golden.  Very possible outcome.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Being real...all we have to do is have the GFS and ECMWF meet in the middle and we are golden.  Very possible outcome.

Agree with this... compromise is usually the best bet.  

 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Being real...all we have to do is have the GFS and ECMWF meet in the middle and we are golden.  Very possible outcome.

I agree with that. I'm not buying the strength of the low on the Euro 

[snow_wizard]

Pacific is shut down at the end of the run.

#itsgoingtobecoldregardless

[Gradient Keeper]

Where's that Devastating Trendz post from last year? or was it 2 years ago? @Deweydog started it, and then I made the custom T-Shirt... Lol. This would be an ideal time for it.

[joelgombiner]

La Nina doin' its thing. 

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

I agree with that. I'm not buying the strength of the low on the Euro 

I've seen the ECMWF way too aggressive on stuffing energy southwestward under a block many times.  That explains the UKMET also since they are both European models.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

[Nov1985]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This would be murder for people who haven't been doing this for 25 years like some f us have.

I started in 1985. I only figured out how to detach about 10 years ago. Watching the models stumble and finally solve complex systems is much more entertaining than anything on Netflix. The last few years have been great so this season already exceeding expectations. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

[snow_wizard]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

La Nina doin' its thing. 

 

The MEI is just ridiculous.  Extremely tanked MEI seems to correspond well with very blocky winters for us.  I think 2010 and 1988 are the two best examples of that in recent times.

[bainbridgekid]

Up to 0.56" on the day here in Everett. Also down to 42 degrees after a high of 57 yesterday.

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Still a lot to work with on this run.  I'm certainly glad the ECMWF and GFS are so far apart on this.  Room for compromise.

10 minutes ago, umadbro said:

This forum is legitimately one of the funniest things on the internet. I truly enjoy this place.

Two sentiments I wholeheartedly agree with.

[snow_wizard]

Normally we would call this pretty good stuff!