Timmy Supercell Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 its almost as if global warming is real it would have been nice to have an early ski season! I can't believe the endless torch the models are showing. Torching which begets more torching...An endless theme for the past 2 1/2 years. I still think there will be a ski season, if it's not early. Just not seeing a '14-'15 kind of winter materializing. Maybe more like last winter if the worst happens (mountain snow, no lowland snow. Above average snowpack). But I think maybe a couple/few inches in low elevations this time. Just not like 2008 or 2004. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 It's November 3rd.It is... But is also a very familiar pattern we have seen for awhile now. Thank goodness it is still early. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 Lots of the country can hit 80 in November, actually. Grand Rapids, Michigan at nearly 43 degrees north has hit 80 in November. Cleveland had a 77/65 day on 12/3/1982, which is ******* insane.It was also 78/65 in Cleveland just yesterday. Hit 80 the day before that. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 November could be much drier in Klamath Falls. Only 2 small chances of rain in the next 10 days. To be expected though, I haven't experienced any real rainy Novembers in my time so far in this area. Let it sun.....let it sun.... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 November is looking almost like a lock to have all-time warmth in the PNW. The beat goes on. Hey, there was a nice 5 month break from record warmth. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 Another dagger in the heart of northwest snow lovers: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/02/colder-winters/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 It is... But is also a very familiar pattern we have seen for awhile now. Thank goodness it is still early. Except November has been auspiciously missing from the warmth in recent years...this may be different. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 Another dagger in the heart of northwest snow lovers: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/02/colder-winters/ Brilliant journalism. The last sentence is especially compelling: The changes may just mean more layers to brave more brushes with bone-chilling Arctic air. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 Another dagger in the heart of northwest snow lovers: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/02/colder-winters/How is that a dagger? Looks like it's talking about the NE, not the NW. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 It's all about the Northeast. I don't give a rats a** or any other type of animals a** about the east coast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 It's all about the Northeast. I don't give a rats a** or any other type of animals a** about the east coast.Exactly, so why is it a dagger to your heart? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 How is that a dagger? Looks like it's talking about the NE, not the NW. Yeah, and when people say "NW" it's Portland and Seattle. Just buy a set of skis and go to the cascades. There's gonna be snow and it's gonna be great. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 Haha. I was being a bit overdramatic using the term 'dagger' I suppose, but positives regarding the east coast winters generally translate into negatives for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 You all should be rooting for it to get as warm as possible over the next couple weeks. Record warmth from late October - mid November has often been a harbinger of most excellent things later. Mainly for neutral/-ENSO years. 10/23/92 - broke tons of records, including a 77 at OLM, the latest they've ever been that warmLate Oct/early Nov 1949 - epic fall heat waveEarly Nov 2006: very warm, lots of warm low recordsEarly Nov 2008: same thingearly Nov 2010: same thingEarly Nov 1990: also a record-setting warm spikeLate October/early Nov 1978 also had a couple very warm periods. And even the recently mentioned 1908 had a major warm spell in early November. In fact, Clearbrook hit 69 on this very day in 1908, the latest they've ever been that warm. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 I too think it will cool down after the warmth. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 You all should be rooting for it to get as warm as possible over the next couple weeks. Record warmth from late October - mid November has often been a harbinger of most excellent things later. Mainly for neutral/-ENSO years. 10/23/92 - broke tons of records, including a 77 at OLM, the latest they've ever been that warmLate Oct/early Nov 1949 - epic fall heat waveEarly Nov 2006: very warm, lots of warm low recordsEarly Nov 2008: same thingearly Nov 2010: same thingEarly Nov 1990: also a record-setting warm spikeLate October/early Nov 1978 also had a couple very warm periods. And even the recently mentioned 1908 had a major warm spell in early November. In fact, Clearbrook hit 69 on this very day in 1908, the latest they've ever been that warm. 1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples.november 1949 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 I still think there will be a ski season, if it's not early. Just not seeing a '14-'15 kind of winter materializing. Maybe more like last winter if the worst happens (mountain snow, no lowland snow. Above average snowpack). But I think maybe a couple/few inches in low elevations this time. Just not like 2008 or 2004. I agree that we will still have a great ski season. In fact I think it will be better than the last two seasons. I am just disappointed it has not come a bit earlier this year at the lower elevations. Backcountry is looking good right now above 5K in certain locations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples. Yep. But of those, 1980 is the only decent ENSO match. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 1999, 1980, and 1969 are some other great examples. Ouch Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 november 1949 It didn't follow a torch October though 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 It didn't follow a torch October thoughLet's all ignore that fact. It will help morale as we endure this torch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 I agree that we will still have a great ski season. In fact I think it will be better than the last two seasons. I am just disappointed it has not come a bit earlier this year at the lower elevations. Backcountry is looking good right now above 5K in certain locations.To be fair, it's pretty normal for things to not pick up from that standpoint until Thanksgiving or later. From what I can tell from various hikes and trip reports this fall, the snowpack above 5,000 in the Cascades was one of the earliest in years at that elevation. Many high elevation destinations had significant snow by mid-month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 It didn't follow a torch October though I wouldn't call it a true torch October for the PNW overall. Quite a bit cooler than the past couple years! From mid month on, it definitely torched. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 How is that a dagger? Looks like it's talking about the NE, not the NW.He said its a dagger because the article mentioned the NE getting colder due to PV orientation. Colder NE = warmer NW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 Let's all ignore that fact. It will help morale as we endure this torch. Let's not get carried away. We're still trying to endure this rain first! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 New JMA weeklies look very nice for week 3 & 4, FWIW. Very 2013/14 esque with blocking from the GOA/AK into the Arctic.There has been some hint on a few recent GFS runs that something could happen in that time frame. That's fantastic news. There's no question that Blocking will occur over the GOA/AK. It's just a question now of when that will occur. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted November 3, 2016 Report Share Posted November 3, 2016 You all should be rooting for it to get as warm as possible over the next couple weeks. Record warmth from late October - mid November has often been a harbinger of most excellent things later. Mainly for neutral/-ENSO years. 10/23/92 - broke tons of records, including a 77 at OLM, the latest they've ever been that warmLate Oct/early Nov 1949 - epic fall heat waveEarly Nov 2006: very warm, lots of warm low recordsEarly Nov 2008: same thingearly Nov 2010: same thingEarly Nov 1990: also a record-setting warm spikeLate October/early Nov 1978 also had a couple very warm periods. And even the recently mentioned 1908 had a major warm spell in early November. In fact, Clearbrook hit 69 on this very day in 1908, the latest they've ever been that warm. Bring on the heat then until mid November! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 He said its a dagger because the article mentioned the NE getting colder due to PV orientation. Colder NE = warmer NWTo be fair, I didn't see any mention of the NW. During the LIA, for example, a semipermanent -NAO/-EPO type pattern resulted in a cooling across the US. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 I can't believe the endless torch the models are showing. Torching which begets more torching...An endless theme for the past 2 1/2 years. We did have a lot of below normal days mid June through early October. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 He said its a dagger because the article mentioned the NE getting colder due to PV orientation. Colder NE = warmer NW Not at all. It's well established there was anomalous ridging over the NE Pacific during the LIA. It is thought Alaska was actually warmer than present and the NW was colder. Kind of like the Pacific version of the NAO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 I wouldn't call it a true torch October for the PNW overall. Quite a bit cooler than the past couple years! From mid month on, it definitely torched. Last1mTDeptWRCC-NW.png From an 850mb temperature perspective Oct was actually cool. Entirely the fault of heavy cloud cover keeping minimums up. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 Brilliant journalism. The last sentence is especially compelling: The changes may just mean more layers to brave more brushes with bone-chilling Arctic air. Very poorly written for sure. Let's all ignore that fact. It will help morale as we endure this torch. It's pretty plain to see the Cascades were actually colder than normal during October. That is actually more of a true gauge of the actual pattern we were in. We're fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 For those who are beelyaching about being in an endless torch pattern take a look at the 500mb compisite for mid June through October. Looks pretty decent to me. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 For those who are beelyaching about being in an endless torch pattern take a look at the 500mb compisite for mid June through October. Looks pretty decent to me. I am sure that won't move all winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 For those who are beelyaching about being in an endless torch pattern take a look at the 500mb compisite for mid June through October. Looks pretty decent to me. At the surface it has been above normal. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 At the surface it has been above normal. IMO the upper levels are more important. It has come down to details dictating surface temps. In the winter we have to have a favorable 500mb pattern to get anything really good. I think there is a lot of leftover warmth from the Nino that has made it harder for things to cool off. That effect will diminish as time goes on. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 I guess I should post the composite for this year up until mid June so you can see how dramatically the 500mb pattern has improved since then. Also keep in mind we are seeing what I had hoped for this month. For some reason November is a month that often runs opposite of the current regime that is going on. Not always, but quite often. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 4, 2016 Report Share Posted November 4, 2016 CPC going with the following analogs to guide this winter's forecast: 1983/841995/961950/512007/082013/14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.