November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I am kind of relying on Nina climo on this point. I could certainly imagine a winter where the NE and NW take turns and the NC is cold the entire time.

Yeah, I also want to see the Hadley Cells retract/intensify equatorward. There's a chance the upcoming MJO event will attempt to assist in this process.

 

How the hemispheric wavetrain evolves during/after this MJO event will be VERY telling as to where we're going this winter, in my opinion.

[Front Ranger]

Weird how we're having the opposite problems w/ seasonality.

 

Both November and December have gone into the crapper here, while February and March are delivering 90% of our winter, basically the inverse of what you guys are dealing with. Have to wonder if this will reverse at some point.

It actually makes a lot of sense.

 

Does that pattern for you guys go back 30+ years, though?

[Deweydog]

Make November great again.

 

As much as people want to paint November as the thief in the night of all things wintry, we haven't seen anything more than a dusting in November in almost 13 years.  

[Phil]

It actually makes a lot of sense.

 

Does that pattern for you guys go back 30+ years, though?

It does, minus the oddball decade of the 1980s. December just doesn't produce cold like it used to, before the dustbowl era. I guess the same could be said about January.

 

Meanwhile, February and March have been smashing records left and right. Some of the most ancient, presumed-untouchable records, both in the temperature and snowfall department, have fallen in recent years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen pointed out that the last 5 Ninas haven't delivered much of anything snow wise at PDX. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

MNel does not consider 08-09' a Nina, though I know that has been debated on here. 

[Phil]

MNel does not consider 08-09' a Nina, though I know that has been debated on here.

Uh, 08/09 was most definitely a Niña. In fact, I'd argue it was easily more of a Niña than this year. More coherent Niña convective cell, globally integrated -AAM bias was solid as well.

[Jesse]

As much as people want to paint November as the thief in the night of all things wintry, we haven't seen anything more than a dusting in November in almost 13 years.  

 

To the uneducated layman it would almost seem as if our climate has been warming in all months.

[wx_statman]

Weird how we're having the opposite problems w/ seasonality.

 

Both November and December have gone into the crapper here, while February and March are delivering 90% of our winter, basically the inverse of what you guys are dealing with. Have to wonder if this will reverse at some point.

 

Yeah, that's interesting. I'm sure the two trends are related as well.

[Deweydog]

To the uneducated layman it would almost seem as if our climate has been warming in all months.

 

We could see a record warm November and a foot of snow on the 30th...

[Phil]

Talk about a shake-up. Very nice!

 

If this doesn't do the trick in the NPAC, I'm not sure what will.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Front Ranger]

As much as people want to paint November as the thief in the night of all things wintry, we haven't seen anything more than a dusting in November in almost 13 years.

Regionally, November has definitely outperformed historical climo over the past 30 years, though.

 

PDX definitely matters, though!!

[Deweydog]

Regionally, November has definitely outperformed historical climo over the past 30 years, though.

 

PDX definitely matters, though!!

 

Touchy!

[MossMan]

We could see a record warm November and a foot of snow on the 30th...

Snow!!!

[TT-SEA]

We could see a record warm November and a foot of snow on the 30th...

 

 

A very good point... memorable events are really all that matters.   Can't play in cool anomalies.   

[Jesse]

A very good point... memorable events are really all that matters.   Can't play in cool anomalies.   

 

You can take brisk, highly enjoyable walks in them.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS in 7 minutes!

 

From Michael Ventrice

Take a look at the 1-10vs 1-15d snowfall forecasts from the ECMWF Ensembles...

Bit of an increase there in the 11-15d period c.f. to 1-10d.

-----------------------------

A bit more snow.....

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Might go buy a snowblower... that will completely jinx snow at my house this year. Guaranteed to not snow if I spend money on it now.

I bought one in January 2011. Sorry everyone.

[Gradient Keeper]

I bought one in January 2011. Sorry everyone.

Crap!!!!

[TT-SEA]

You can take brisk, highly enjoyable walks in them.

 

 

Today was plenty nice for a walk as well.   Its not like its going to be too warm for outdoor activities the next few months.   Too wet will happen often... too warm will not.

[wx_statman]

Regionally, November has definitely outperformed historical climo over the past 30 years, though.

 

PDX definitely matters, though!!

 

Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance."

[Timmy Supercell]

Weird how we're having the opposite problems w/ seasonality.

 

Both November and December have gone into the crapper here, while February and March are delivering 90% of our winter, basically the inverse of what you guys are dealing with. Have to wonder if this will reverse at some point.

 

Well February is still a solid winter month here in the cascades. It has no problem delivering average amounts of snowfall, at least when there's no droughts. But yeah March I think was a bigger month for snow/cold back in the 'ol hay day.

[stuffradio]

Make November great again.

November you can believe in!

[Gradient Keeper]

November you can believe in!

This November is going to be huge, absolutely huge and incredible. Trust me. Believe me. Just incredible. Incredibly huge. I know more about November than the Meteorologists and Climatologists. Believe me.

[stuffradio]

I bought one in January 2011. Sorry everyone.

YVR bought a fleet in 2010, most likely due to 2008. That's what did it.

[Tundra]

00z GFS in 7 minutes!

 

From Michael Ventrice

Take a look at the 1-10vs 1-15d snowfall forecasts from the ECMWF Ensembles...

Bit of an increase there in the 11-15d period c.f. to 1-10d.

-----------------------------

A bit more snow.....

 

 

I see snow at my location!

[stuffradio]

This November is going to be huge, absolutely huge and incredible. Trust me. Believe me. Just incredible. Incredibly huge. I know more about November than the Meteorologists and Climatologists. Believe me.

Yes November can!

 

On another note, I'm pretty sure I've seen evidence stating not all months have in fact been warming, at least up here. If I can find it, I will post it. There just seems to be so many layman these days.

[Front Ranger]

Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance."

Well, I'm looking at 1985-2015 compared to the previous 75+ years. 1985, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2010.

 

Regardless, mother nature doesn't follow a calendar, and we can definitively say that early season Nov/Dec events have increased. Especially pre-Dec 15.

[BLI snowman]

Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance."

I would say that 1955-1985 wins for folks south of Seattle. From Seattle north, I would take the latter period.

 

I would agree that 1985-2015 dwarfs many other 30 year periods for November winter weather, dating back to 1850.

[wx_statman]

Well, I'm looking at 1985-2015 compared to the previous 75+ years. 1985, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2010.

 

Regardless, mother nature doesn't follow a calendar, and we can definitively say that early season Nov/Dec events have increased. Especially pre-Dec 15.

 

That's kind of a funky way of looking at it. If you were to look at 30 year periods, then 1895-1925, 1955-85, and 1985-2015 are all pretty similar with regards to November performance. The only 30 year stretch that you could definitively say did not outperform 1985-2015 is 1925-55. That era was remarkable for its concentration of cold waves in DJF (and mostly JF), to the exclusion of November and March (compared to other multi-decadal stretches). In other words, I don't think it can be claimed that 1985-2015 definitively outperformed "historical" norms with regards to November performance. Its an exercise in subjectivity at best, IMO.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmm..........

http://i.imgur.com/poVcPgR.png

[wx_statman]

Well, I'm looking at 1985-2015 compared to the previous 75+ years. 1985, 1993, 1996, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2010.

 

Regardless, mother nature doesn't follow a calendar, and we can definitively say that early season Nov/Dec events have increased. Especially pre-Dec 15.

 

I'm not so sure. For example, the 1919-64 stretch would warrant a closer look if we're talking about pre-December 15 cold waves. 

[wx_statman]

I would say that 1955-1985 wins for folks south of Seattle. From Seattle north, I would take the latter period.

 

I would agree that 1985-2015 dwarfs many other 30 year periods for November winter weather, dating back to 1850.

 

But are you really saying anything?

 

If we're to look at individual, successive 30 year periods counting backward from 2015, then 1895-1925 and 1955-85 are pretty similar to 1985-2015 with regard to November performance. That's 90 out of 165 years (55% of all years) since 1850. 

[Front Ranger]

That's kind of a funky way of looking at it. If you were to look at 30 year periods, then 1895-1925, 1955-85, and 1985-2015 are all pretty similar with regards to November performance. The only 30 year stretch that you could definitively say did not outperform 1985-2015 is 1925-55. That era was remarkable for its concentration of cold waves in DJF (and mostly JF), to the exclusion of November and March (compared to other multi-decadal stretches). In other words, I don't think it can be claimed that 1985-2015 definitively outperformed "historical" norms with regards to November performance. Its an exercise in subjectivity at best, IMO.

As I said, calendar months aside, we can definitely say early season events have outperformed compared to climo.

 

The fact that we saw Dec 2008, Dec 2009, Nov 2010, and Dec 2013 all within 6 years is pretty remarkable. Decent little event in Nov 2014 also in there.

[snow_wizard]

Has it, though? An argument can be made that the 1955-85 stretch was more impressive than, or at least equivalent to, 1985-2015 with regards to November "performance."

This is certainly a case where Western WA north of Olympia at least has kicked NW Oregon's arse. I have personally had significant snowfall IMBY in the following Novembers.

 

1985

1993

1996

2006

2010

2014

 

5 of those had significant intrusions of Arctic air. 1996 didn't get quite as cold, but had over 6 inches of snow.

[wx_statman]

As I said, calendar months aside, we can definitely say early season events have outperformed compared to climo.

 

And as I said, I disagree. 

[snow_wizard]

That's kind of a funky way of looking at it. If you were to look at 30 year periods, then 1895-1925, 1955-85, and 1985-2015 are all pretty similar with regards to November performance. The only 30 year stretch that you could definitively say did not outperform 1985-2015 is 1925-55. That era was remarkable for its concentration of cold waves in DJF (and mostly JF), to the exclusion of November and March (compared to other multi-decadal stretches). In other words, I don't think it can be claimed that 1985-2015 definitively outperformed "historical" norms with regards to November performance. Its an exercise in subjectivity at best, IMO.

In this area 1985-2015 unquestionably outperformed any other 30 year period on record in the month of November. Sounds like that hasn't been as true in Oregon.

[wx_statman]

In this area 1985-2015 unquestionably outperformed any other 30 year period on record in the month of November. Sounds like that hasn't been as true in Oregon.

 

That's the thing. It hasn't.

 

I'm approaching this subject from a strictly regional perspective, including both OR and WA.

[Front Ranger]

And as I said, I disagree.

That's literally all you do with me.

 

Show me a 30 year period where Nov/Dec outperformed 1985-2015. Or 40 years compared to Nov/Dec 1975-2015.

 

No reason to deny the trend. January has gone to , Feb/Mar have been mediocre, and Nov/Dec have been above normal.

[Front Ranger]

That's the thing. It hasn't.

 

I'm approaching this subject from a strictly regional perspective, including both OR and WA.

But for some reason you were only looking at Portland when discussing March earlier?