November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Bryant]

Not surprised but the 0z was a pretty big outlier.

**IF** tropical forcing returns to the EHEM as I'm hoping, I'd expect to see the mean trough position more so over the west

[stuffradio]

Words.

You keep using that word, I do not think you know what it means.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like Tuesday will make 6 straight 60+ highs at SEA.

 

Not bad for November.

[ShawniganLake]

**IF** tropical forcing returns to the EHEM as I'm hoping, I'd expect to see the mean trough position more so over the west

I hope that "IF" becomes a "when".

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Tuesday will make 6 straight 60+ highs at SEA.

 

Not bad for November.

 

 

FWIW... the GFS MOS has 63 on Wednesday as well. 

 

And 61 on Thursday.

 

Might get to 8 days in a row.  

[Jesse]

Beginning to appear as if the torch may start to fade by next weekend.

[bainbridgekid]

FWIW... the GFS MOS has 63 on Wednesday as well. 

 

And 61 on Thursday.

 

Might get to 8 days in a row.  

Seems like that would have to be a record for November.

[Front Ranger]

Not sure if Phil or anyone else has mentioned this, but the QBO number for October is out: 12.83. That up from 10.48 in September, and the highest number this year.

 

If you look at all non-Nino Octobers with +QBO, you have: 1955, 1959, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1999, 2008, 2010, and 2013.

 

As mentioned in the -AO thread, 1955 and 2010 were easily the closest matches to the October pattern for the U.S.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty neutralish overall. Definitely not a classic +PNA month.

I think it's interesting that one formula says pretty strong positive and one says weak negative. To me the pattern had some aspects of both.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS has to make some people feel a bit better. Nice little warning shot if it verifies.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure if Phil or anyone else has mentioned this, but the QBO number for October is out: 12.83. That up from 10.48 in September, and the highest number this year.

 

If you look at all non-Nino Octobers with +QBO, you have: 1955, 1959, 1961, 1964, 1966, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1999, 2008, 2010, and 2013.

 

As mentioned in the -AO thread, 1955 and 2010 were easily the closest matches to the October pattern for the U.S.

Only a few total duds in there. Nice list overall.

[Front Ranger]

Seems like that would have to be a record for November.

 

Not sure about SEA, but Kent had 9 straight 60+ days to start Nov 1921. The 10th hit 59.

[Front Ranger]

Only a few total duds in there. Nice list overall.

 

What I take from it is a lot of very blocky winters. Strong signal for at least one big Arctic blast in the West in either November or December, and January and February are kind of all over the place.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure about SEA, but Kent had 9 straight 60+ days to start Nov 1921. The 10th hit 59.

1921 works for me. Nice winter. In fact I consider 1921-22 and 1922-23 one of the best (and most overlooked I might add) pairs of winters on record.

[Deweydog]

Not sure about SEA, but Kent had 9 straight 60+ days to start Nov 1921. The 10th hit 59.

SeaTac is the new Kent.

[Front Ranger]

SeaTac is the new Kent.

 

They're pretty darn close to each other.

[snow_wizard]

What I take from it is a lot of very blocky winters. Strong signal for at least one big Arctic blast in the West in either November or December, and January and February are kind of all over the place.

All I know is I feel really good about our chances. This year just looks totally different than anything recent.

[snow_wizard]

They're pretty darn close to each other.

It is pretty astonishing to look at some of the low temps Kent has had in the past though. Some real jaw droppers. It's worse for snow than SEA, but better for cold.

[ShawniganLake]

Strong retrogression signal and nice anomaly center showing in days 10-16 on the GEPS.

[Deweydog]

They're pretty darn close to each other.

That's what makes the funny.

[wx_statman]

You keep using that word, I do not think you know what it means.

 

Ok, professor Wittgenstein. 

[Front Ranger]

It is pretty astonishing to look at some of the low temps Kent has had in the past though. Some real jaw droppers. It's worse for snow than SEA, but better for cold.

 

Yeah, obviously being further from the water and a bit lower is mainly why. For high temps they tend to run fairly close, as far as I can tell.

[ShawniganLake]

[snow_wizard]

To further expound on 1921-22 and 1922-23...just look at the two winters combined. Incredibly well rounded.

 

1. Very torchy November (1921) with a major snowstorm thrown in.

 

2. Fantastic December (1922) with major snowfall and a major Arctic blast.

 

3. Very good January (1922) with decent snowfall and an Arctic outbreak.

 

4. Nice late January (1923) snowfall which left snow on the ground right up to the big snow and blast in...

 

5. February (1923) major snowstorm and major blast which brought the coldest mid Feb max temps of the 20th century

 

6. Also a nice cold snap in Dec 1921 which brought 3 sub freezing max temps

 

Total snow for the two winters = 75.5"

 

Total max temps 32 or below = 16

 

Total days 1" or more on the ground = 56

 

Extreme min 1921-22 = 6

 

Extreme min 1922-23 = 5

 

Records are for Landsburg

[snow_wizard]

IMG_0393.PNG

Exactly like the last two ECMWF ensemble means. The first signs might be getting close now!

[snow_wizard]

It's coming guys! This is going to be goood!!!!

[Tundra]

It's coming guys! This is going to be goood!!!!

Are you thinking an Arctic Blast in November?

[snow_wizard]

Are you thinking an Arctic Blast in November?

Maybe. I would more like to see a quick hitting warning shot. Those can happen in November and be followed by cold Januaries. At any rate there is little doubt it will get cold to some extent.

 

One thing that may delay the onset of the colder weather is an extremely deep trough the GEM and ECMWF depict digging into the SE next week. Ensembles from both of those models overcome it though and lift it out after day 10. The GFS could be rushing things, but then again it hasn't been a terrible model lately.

[wx_statman]

To further expound on 1921-22 and 1922-23...just look at the two winters combined. Incredibly well rounded.

 

1. Very torchy November (1921) with a major snowstorm thrown in.

 

2. Fantastic December (1922) with major snowfall and a major Arctic blast.

 

3. Very good January (1922) with decent snowfall and an Arctic outbreak.

 

4. Nice late January (1923) snowfall which left snow on the ground right up to the big snow and blast in...

 

5. February (1923) major snowstorm and major blast which brought the coldest mid Feb max temps of the 20th century

 

6. Also a nice cold snap in Dec 1921 which brought 3 sub freezing max temps

 

Total snow for the two winters = 75.5"

 

Total max temps 32 or below = 16

 

Total days 1" or more on the ground = 56

 

Extreme min 1921-22 = 6

 

Extreme min 1922-23 = 5

 

Records are for Landsburg

 

Great back-to-back winters indeed. 

 

For more information, here are a couple posts I made in 2010:

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/29153-we-never-talk-about-december-1922/

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/29309-the-epic-november-1921-storm/

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the ECMWF control model looks a lot like the GFS for the 10 to 15 day period and the ECMWF ensemble continues with the idea of a PNA flip.  The control model is cold enough for snow, but not really Arctic.

[Phil]

FWIW the ECMWF control model looks a lot like the GFS for the 10 to 15 day period and the ECMWF ensemble continues with the idea of a PNA flip. The control model is cold enough for snow, but not really Arctic.

It's definitely Arctic, just nothing extraordinarily cold given the PV column is on the other side of the pole, and the fact that we'll still be recovering from the (ongoing) Pacific hose job.

 

I also don't like how flat the EPS mean gets with the Aleutian ridge in the long range. That's the perfect loading pattern for another GOA vortex. Really, there's nothing more dangerous that a flat Aleutian ridge, IMO. Can be a very self-reinforcing pattern, as we've seen over the last 7+ weeks.

[westcoastexpat]

From a tropical forcing standpoint, without putting much thought into it, I'd say things begin to line up near the end of the month/beginning of December

 

Agreed. I think December will be our month.

[crf450ish]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only dropped to 46 last night... The GFS ensemble is starting to get down to climo at least about a week out.

[Jesse]

55 at PDX morning with cloudy skies and east winds. Today could get pretty ridiculously warm.

[snow_wizard]

It's definitely Arctic, just nothing extraordinarily cold given the PV column is on the other side of the pole, and the fact that we'll still be recovering from the (ongoing) Pacific hose job.

 

I also don't like how flat the EPS mean gets with the Aleutian ridge in the long range. That's the perfect loading pattern for another GOA vortex. Really, there's nothing more dangerous that a flat Aleutian ridge, IMO. Can be a very self-reinforcing pattern, as we've seen over the last 7+ weeks.

The +QBO gives us a really good shot at the Aleutian high being displaced poleward this winter though. We have a lot of weirdness going on this year so who knows for sure I guess.

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. I think December will be our month.

Maybe December and January both. I like the winters where December delivers a couple of quick hitters and then we get blasted in January. We shall see.

[TT-SEA]

The +QBO gives us a really good shot at the Aleutian high being displaced poleward this winter though. We have a lot of weirdness going on this year so who knows for sure I guess.

 

 

If its such a strange year... why do you insist that we will follow your perfect recipe of warning shots leading to massive cold in the heart of winter based on history?     

[Jesse]

Models seem to keep dragging the torch out longer and longer...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models seem to keep dragging the torch out longer and longer...

 

Have you been paying attention the past 30 months?