SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 Good thing about living on a hill and the soil I have is that it never gets that muddy here...Despite the endless rain. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring. Daily values are over +2 now. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5DE6F974-96F1-4E8E-8D43-2EAFAD87084B_zpsx3qgtxmj.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring. Daily values are over +2 now. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5DE6F974-96F1-4E8E-8D43-2EAFAD87084B_zpsx3qgtxmj.jpg That was a memorable 10 day run in late September, though. #neverforget 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 That was a memorable 10 day run in late September, though. #neverforgetAll good signs for winter, though. Need that +PNA/flat ridge as strong as possible now to score in January. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 All good signs for winter, though. Need that +PNA/flat ridge as strong as possible now to score in January. Flatiron will tell you a rising PDO going into winter is muy no bueno. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 Oh, and the PDO spike in October couldn't possibly have resulted from a +PNA, Aleutian Low pattern. The old PNA formula never lies. Must've just been a fluke. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 Flatiron will tell you a rising PDO going into winter is muy no bueno. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 Does warmer water increase the chance of a ridge taking hold? Huge debate on that. I think a warm pool over the GOA might increase the chances for a ridge in the spot we want it, but I doubt the influence is that great. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring. Daily values are over +2 now. It's a totally different situation though. Very cold water where the blob used to be. There are many different incarnations that can equate to + PDO. BTW is that graphic available for free? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 The 18z continues a progressively more negative PNA theme. Certainly better than the Euro as of late, but even that model shows improvement. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 It's a totally different situation though. Very cold water where the blob used to be. There are many different incarnations that can equate to + PDO. BTW is that graphic available for free?This is a classic example of boreal winter re-emergence. Last winter's +PDO/cold pool is manifesting again at the surface thanks to the subsurface profile. Plenty of literature on this. Basically, the extratropical upper ocean mixing layer(s) deepens during the cold season as the upper oceans become more kinetically disturbed, hence the subsurface profile reflects more coherently at the sea surface. Note the change here over the last 7 days: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 This is a classic example of boreal winter re-emergence. Last winter's +PDO/cold pool is manifesting again at the surface thanks to the subsurface profile. Plenty of literature on this. Basically, the extratropical upper ocean mixing layer(s) deepens during the cold season as the upper oceans become more kinetically disturbed, hence the subsurface profile reflects more coherently at the sea surface. Note the change here over the last 7 days: We'll see. I still think the PDO is overrated. Earlier this century we had some tanked PDO winters that sucked balls. By the same token we have had cold ones that were +. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 13, 2016 Report Share Posted November 13, 2016 Absolutely insane that your yard would get wet and muddy in November. I'm guessing this is the first time it's ever happened?He lives in an alternate universe where we are expected to have Fresno summers and Kalispell winters with very little rain throughout all seasons. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 He lives in an alternate universe where we are expected to have Fresno summers and Kalispell winters with very little rain throughout all seasons.All I am saying is that the ground has reached the saturation point much earlier this year. I thought you were too high and mighty to even respond to my stupid Posts? Time for another timeout for ya? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 All I am saying is that the ground has reached the saturation point much earlier this year. I thought you were too high and mighty to even respond to my stupid Posts? Time for another timeout for ya?One of the wettest Octobers on record probably played a role. November is normally very wet here, and probably pretty muddy. That's just our climate. It is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 There definitely seems to be a cooling trend in the models in the mid-long range. Nice to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 There definitely seems to be a cooling trend in the models in the mid-long range. Nice to see.Flat Aleutian ridging = conduit to +EPO/westerly flow and a complete lack of a SE ridge. Need something more than this. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/E0E8B5E7-870A-4D8D-8558-2EFE605BD18D_zpskvqgdxxx.gif Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Flat Aleutian ridging = conduit to +EPO/westerly flow and a complete lack of a SE ridge. Need something more than this. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/E0E8B5E7-870A-4D8D-8558-2EFE605BD18D_zpskvqgdxxx.gif You seem to think we are going for a home run every week or something. Just because we aren't getting arctic air doesn't mean that people aren't going to enjoy a cool down of some sort. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Flat Aleutian ridging = conduit to +EPO/westerly flow and a complete lack of a SE ridge. Need something more than this. I'm not necessarily looking for an arctic blast. Some near to slightly cooler than average weather with mountain snow would be great right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 You seem to think we are going for a home run every week or something. Just because we aren't getting arctic air doesn't mean that people aren't going to enjoy a cool down of some sort.Yeah, a cool down to at least climo is about all any of us are expecting for the foreseeable future. Getting the mountain snowpack going is also a plus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 I'm not necessarily looking for an arctic blast. Some near to slightly cooler than average weather with mountain snow would be great right now.Exactly we just want mountain snow and normal late fall weather. Nothing earth shattering. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 We'll see. I still think the PDO is overrated. Earlier this century we had some tanked PDO winters that sucked balls. By the same token we have had cold ones that were +. It's always easier to stay where you've been than to change. The same applies to the PDO. It's dropped significantly this year, which shows things have been slowly changing, but until a true long-lasting -PNA dominated pattern kicks in, it's not going to go negative. If that had already happened and the PDO was more negative, I'd feel better about a -PNA dominated winter. That being said, it is a transitional period, following a major +ENSO/+PDO regime. These things usually take a little time, especially with a rather weak -ENSO event. It certainly could flip at some point over the next couple months. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Talk about a reversal on the 18Z GFS: Hour 0: Hour 384: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Talk about a reversal on the 18Z GFS: That west based -NAO is really good for us. The same feature that showed up on the 12z ECMWF ensemble. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 So close to shaking that sub-56 monkey off our backs today. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Talk about a reversal on the 18Z GFS: Hour 0: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016111318/000/500h_anom.na.png Hour 384: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016111318/384/500h_anom.na.pngNot even sure why you'd reference hour 384, ever? Showing that time frame doesn't give any credence to a reversal 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up. Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up. Decent looking suppressed jet by day 10 on the 0z GFS. Things are looking up. Seasonal vanilla. Better than what we've had though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out. Click here SaveSave 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 MY WEATHER STATION IS NOT ONLINE! YAH! check it out. Click here Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.pngSaveSave You mean 'now' online right? Looks awesome. Pretty warm there too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 You mean 'now' online right? Looks awesome. Pretty warm there too. LOL... yes... sorry I was just a little excited to finally get it up... and yes, that's what she said. and a warm night here, but normal for the swamp. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out. Click here Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.pngSaveSaveNice! Makes two of us now. What station do you have? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 This super-moon is so super I think it's inhibiting radiational cooling. Apparently the closest approach since 1948. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Seasonal vanilla. Better than what we've had though. A tad better than that I think. Solid -PNA. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out. Click here Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.png Save[/size]Save[/size] Is it really that warm there? It's only 49 here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Save[/size] Is it really that warm there? It's only 49 here.Yes, and if you look at other stations around the area it will verify... it is not unusual here with this type of setup. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Yes, and if you look at other stations around the area it will verify... it is not unusual here with this type of setup.I'm pretty sure an alien base is under Bonney Lake 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 MY WEATHER STATION IS NOW ONLINE! YAH! check it out. Click here Screen Shot 2016-11-13 at 9.54.59 PM.pngSaveSaveNice! What kind of weather station did you get? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 I'm pretty sure an alien base is under Bonney LakeNah, just swamp gas. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjb Posted November 14, 2016 Report Share Posted November 14, 2016 Nah, just swamp gas.[/quote I thought the "swamp" was down in the valley at Puyallup Jon's ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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