November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luminen]

71 here! Real torchy. You would think it's May in my house.

 

72F here but I haven't had the heat on in a few days.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

Here we gooo!!!

Again, I wouldn't expect any drastic changes in the 3-7 day period. Days 7-10+ I would be thrilled enough to just see the offshore ridge hold slightly west of 140 W allowing for cold air to move down into eastern Washington. We'll see...

 

Feel free to play along

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

[westcoastexpat]

Posted my own little "winter outlook" discussion piece:

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1451-using-fall-2016-to-predict-winter-2016-2017/

[westcoastexpat]

The sun angles will start increasing in a couple weeks!

 

Ugh! The blazing sun angle! Running out of time!!! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Here's a thought. If we do see a pretty strong storm Thursday that might buckle the pattern just a bit sooner which might promote stronger ridging popping up behind it near 160-150 W.

[westcoastexpat]

I don't care about January if we get a great December. We haven't had a white Christmas in a long time, and white Decembers are great but otherwise, Make January great again!

 

Agreed. Rooting for a snow and cold in December over January every time. I'll take the January, but it's just not as good as December. 'Tis the season!

[snow_wizard]

Agreed. Rooting for a snow and cold in December over January every time. I'll take the January, but it's just not as good as December. 'Tis the season!

As usual everyone misses the point about why January is better. The coldest December ever in Seattle was 35.1 or thereabouts while the coldest Jan was 24.9. January has far greater potential for extreme cold and snow to last for a much longer time. Not to mention the fact January cold waves are historically much more likely to produce significant snowfall. We will never have winters that put up old time numbers until January makes a come back.

[westcoastexpat]

As usual everyone misses the point about why January is better. The coldest December ever in Seattle was 35.1 or thereabouts while the coldest Jan was 24.9. January has far greater potential for extreme cold and snow to last for a much longer time. Not to mention the fact January cold waves are historically much more likely to produce significant snowfall. We will never have winters that put up old time numbers until January makes a come back.

 

No, you miss the point. December is better for many because it's the holiday season. Many of us have the time off work and can actually enjoy the winter feel. It really sets the mood. I couldn't have asked for more in 2008. After December, I was pretty checked out and felt totally satisfied.

 

And honestly, 24.9 in January sounds pretty crappy to me. I'd much rather a warmer month but with lots of snow. Not that interested in extreme cold.

 

I find cold to be kind of boring. I much prefer winter storm tracking. It's a lot more exciting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As usual everyone misses the point about why January is better. The coldest December ever in Seattle was 35.1 or thereabouts while the coldest Jan was 24.9. January has far greater potential for extreme cold and snow to last for a much longer time. Not to mention the fact January cold waves are historically much more likely to produce significant snowfall. We will never have winters that put up old time numbers until January makes a come back.

 

True fact. 

[snow_wizard]

No, you miss the point. December is better for many because it's the holiday season. Many of us have the time off work and can actually enjoy the winter feel. It really sets the mood. I couldn't have asked for more in 2008. After December, I was pretty checked out and felt totally satisfied.

 

And honestly, 24.9 in January sounds pretty crappy to me. I'd much rather a warmer month but with lots of snow. Not that interested in extreme cold.

During some the really cold Januaries we had big lakes frozen thick enough to walk on, rivers frozen over, snow on the ground for weeks...a veritable winter wonderland!

[westcoastexpat]

During some the really cold Januaries we had big lakes frozen thick enough to walk on, rivers frozen over, snow on the ground for weeks...a veritable winter wonderland!

 

I can drive a couple hours inland for frozen water. Personally, cold just doesn't do it for me. It's more of a small bonus. Snow storms really gets my blood pumping.

[Gradient Keeper]

Interesting change on the 00z so far. Through HR 96. Ridge is 200 miles further northwest from past 4-5 runs and contour show the trough digging just a bit further west. I don't know what that will ultimately mean from days 5-10 though.

 

 

Low/trough moving through intermountain west is a bit further north, heights are higher across southeast US from previous runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge shoving inland HR 114.... Waiting to see how things develop after day 5 back near Aleutians to 160 W

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_20.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday looks like it could be the best day of the weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ridge shoving inland HR 114.... Waiting to see how things develop after day 5 back near Aleutians to 160 W

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_20.png

 

No Kona Low

[Phil]

Cyclonic wave trending stronger over Alaska. Not good.

[The Swamp]

No Kona Low and this is a no go.

[Gradient Keeper]

No Kona Low

Not yet.

[The Swamp]

This is going to end up being a big fat turd sammich.  The cyclonic activity in Alaska is a killer.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah it probably won't be as good as the 18z...It never is...

[Gradient Keeper]

No real large scale changes through day 5-6. Not surprised. Pattern too progressive still. Let's see how days 7-10+ pan out.

[The Swamp]

The low going in near Hawaii/Kona is a must.  I've followed Bastardi in the past and this was one thing he would key in on.

[Phil]

This is going to end up being a big fat turd sammich. The cyclonic activity in Alaska is a killer.

Agree..almost always a killer, especially without a strong -WPO.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 144

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_25.png

[The Swamp]

It's still early though and tremendously fun to follow.

 

This site surely helps.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 156 - Kona Low H/L setting up

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_27.png

[The Swamp]

That looks like a mess with no SE ridge that is also very important.

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison

12z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png

 

and now 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_27.png

[Gradient Keeper]

North Pacific 500mb

Model comparison - 12z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_30.png

 

and now 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_28.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Model comparison

12z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png

 

and now 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_27.png

 

Hmmmmm

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmmmm

Yeah, can see the Kona Low is helping the new ridge to bolster itself and amplify a tad. 12z did not have this feature.

[Phil]

This run is gonna tank the EPO, but the block placement will probably be off kilter, and it'll probably overturn thereafter and force a trough into the Plains/Midwest.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would be my first snow of the year...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

[Phil]

They are looking pretty similar up to this point, except the L over Kona is a little stronger on the 00z. Hopefully that will help the ridge get a little more anchored out there and fight off the energy in Aleutians/AK.

Alaska won't be a problem this run. Can already tell there's going to be a huge -EPO in the d9+ range.

 

Potential problems elsewhere, though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison. 12z - *Note the contours on 00z position digging further south/offshore.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_35.png

 

 

and now 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_33.png

[Heavy Snow]

Hmmm......

http://i.imgur.com/TIox1X1.png

 

That negative EPO is going to be key giving us cross polar flow and sending all that Arctic air across the pole into the lower 48.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That negative EPO is going to be key giving us cross polar flow and sending all that Arctic air across the pole into the lower 48.

 

Hi Tundra

[Bryant]

The low going in near Hawaii/Kona is a must. I've followed Bastardi in the past and this was one thing he would key in on.

That Bastardi, always preaching the truth!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 North Pacific 500mb pattern

Model comparison 12z *Key features. Ridge/block further offshore, colder air digging into eastern Washington. Aleutian low much further northwest into Bering Sea. Heights rising over southern plains shifting into southeast US.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112212/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_38.png

 

and now 00z

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112300/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_36.png

[Heavy Snow]

Hi Tundra

 

Yeah the Arctic air is going to cross the Tundra.